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Morning Trends
Drawdown Scenarios
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s comeback to conclude June keeps alive the potential for another continuation...
Read MorePostScript
June & Q2'23
Topics Covered: 1- July SPX After +10% First Six months 2- Rest of Year after Strong First Six months...
Read MoreLast Licks
Baton Passed Back to Value
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Indicator Check-Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX has routinely hit the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands in 2023. It literally...
Read MoreMorning Trends
"Who Cares? It's Going Up"
Key Points: 1- In a Twitter poll I ran yesterday, 70% of the respondents were bullish; 30% were bearish. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth's Turn
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX, NASDAQ, High Yield Bonds & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX has stayed above the 50-Day MA late March, easily the longest streak above the...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Falters; the Field Holds
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Trends Trend
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into the last week of the year’s second quarter +4% for June, +5.8% for...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/23/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Trend
Key Points: 1- The recent pause has taken place after one of the SPX’s biggest weekly advances we’ve...
Read MoreLast Licks
Losing Streak Over Thanks to…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discr 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Framing the Pullback
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Thursday trying to avoid its first 4-day losing streak since May 1-4. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/16/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks, Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Weekly Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX could log its second 3% weekly move this week of 2023. For some context: in...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Reaction
Key Points: 1- Seeing the 10-Year Yield move materially higher into the next FOMC meeting would encourage...
Read MoreLast Licks
Felt Like a Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Expected Pause
Key Points: 1- Since last July, the 10-Year Yield was noticeably lower two weeks after a FOMC decision...
Read MoreLast Licks
Broad Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Oscillating Between CPI Dates
Key Points: 1- Since November’22, the SPX has alternated gains and losses in the four-week periods between...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Leads in front of CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Biggest Week Since mid-December
Key Points: 1- The last time both CPI and the FOMC occurred during the same week was December’22– CPI...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/9/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- From trough to peak, the SPX is +23% in about seven months. It logged a near 20% advance...
Read MoreMorning Trends
How Long Can the Perfect Rotation Last?
Key Points: 1- The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (+0.74%) outperformed the SPX (-0.38%) by 1.12% yesterday....
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Risk of Strong Internals
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new 20-Day High, and the SPX did not. 2-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Update
Observations: ETFs The big gainers have outnumbered big decliners by a large margin all day. ETF...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Hitting the Latest Pattern Target Means
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Tuesday after achieving its latest upside pattern target near 4,300. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Close after SPX Hits Target
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comms Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two Straight 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to 69 in early February; it finished at 66 on Friday. More...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/2/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Screening for Breakouts
Key Points: 1-A recent stock/ETF bullish screen we ran kicked out 56 ETFs. The most interesting part...
Read MoreLast Licks
Solid Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
A Closer Look at XLK Technology
Key Points: 1- XLK saw its 14-Day RSI hit 76 early yesterday. That was the highest mark since November’21...
Read MoreLast Licks
No Change…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Overbought vs. Oversold
Key Points: 1- Last Friday’s +1.3% gain triggered the SPX’s bigger bullish pattern for the second time...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 5/26/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Not Historically Extreme
Key Points: 1- The NDX/Willshire 5k Index is stretched on the daily chart, as the 14-Day RSI is near...
Read MoreBreaking Out
One for the Ages
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Semis: NVDA MU SMH SPX: 100-Day Study Chart Patterns ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
When Breakouts Work
Key Points: 1- NVDA was among one of the first stocks to break out of a multi-month base back in January. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Digestion
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Taking a Punch
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s latest breakouts no longer are live; the pattern breakout from 3/31 remains...
Read MoreLast Licks
Important Action Beyond the SPX
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Internals
Key Points: 1- While leadership has been top-heavy recently, the SPX’s cumulative adv-dec line has been...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 5/19/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Market is Always Right
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, Growth stocks ripped higher on a day that both interest rates and the dollar...
Read MoreLast Licks
New 52-Wk Highs… For Tech
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bullish Patterns & Overbought Readings
Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off its second 1% gain of May, it’s getting close to triggering the...
Read MoreLast Licks
Pinball Action Continues
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC, XLK, XLY 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Lot of Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2021
Key Points: 1- From January’22 through March’23, the SPX’s LEAST amount of monthly +/-1% moves were EIGHT...
Read MoreLast Licks
Good Closes Continue
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 5/12/23
Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Q2 Trading Range
Key Points: 1- With the SPX is -0.14% for the week, the index could log its sixth straight absolute weekly...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Stuck... for Now
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Sector Performance & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Technology Focus
Key Points: 1-Yesterday, XLK Technology made a new 52-week high and marginally broke out from a multi-week...
Read MoreLast Licks
Afternoon Update
SPX Brief Comments The back-and-forth movement continues, with the SPX and many ETFs are off their lows,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX has altered gains and losses two weeks post the CPI report the last six times,...
Read MoreLast Licks
Still Calm…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Mixed Market Messages
Key Points: 1- Which better describes the market? That we saw two HUGE daily moves during last week’s...
Read MoreLast Licks
Slow Monday
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MorePostScript
5 Straight Small Weekly Moves
Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS Cannabis -Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After Four Straight Declines
Key Points: 1- While the SPX’s pattern work has been quiet lately, potential bullish AND bearish formations...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Breakouts & Breakdowns
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Potential Bearish Pattern Daily...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- This is the SPX’s fourth losing streak of at least three in 2023. The difference this...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Most Anticipated…
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has moved sideways for nearly eight weeks now, which is the flattest...
Read MoreLast Licks
Elevator Down, Escalator Up
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Momentum, Sentiment & Breadth
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour RSI chart has done well at depicting short-term extremes in recent...
Read MoreLast Licks
Slow Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Disc 5-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The May Setup
Key Points: 1- In the 13 years in which the SPX logged 1% gains in both March & April since 1970,...
Read MoreLast Licks
Mostly Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Post-Shock
Key Points: 1- Seeing the SPX’s latest breakout attempt being potentially wasted would be discouraging,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weighing the Evidence
Key Points: We expand on each of these below: Bearish 1- Sentiment remains stretched 2- Breadth: fewer...
Read MoreLast Licks
SPX Still Sleeping
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Last Week’s Small Move Wasn't Meaningless
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into April’s final week up 59 bps for the month and having just logged its...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 4/21/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: -10bps Weeks 2- Breadth 3- Best 20 ETFs 4- Worst 20 ETFs 5- Major Indices 6-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Pausing… for Now
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been confined to an upward sloping channel since the March lows. It’s very...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Too Quiet?
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Volatility Study 2- VIX 5-Wk 30% Declines 3- Sentiment 4-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
April's First Test
Key Points: 1- The SPX has some wiggle room after the recent upswing. It remains 2.4% above its most...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Just a Slow Grind?
Key Points: 1- I ran a twitter poll starting yesterday afternoon asking #fintwit users whether the market’s...
Read MoreLast Licks
The Beat Goes On
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Good Close
Key Points: Two weeks into April, we have seen: 1-A plethora of good closes 2-Smaller daily moves 3-Bullish...
Read MoreLast Licks
The Bid Continues
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Now vs. August'22
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has gone 16 trading days without a 1% decline, which is the longest since...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Holiday Trading
Key Points: 1- With the SPX now 10 days removed from its last 1% decline, the odds are high that another...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Conflicting Action
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Buying the Dip Study 2- Sector Seasonality 3- SPX Patterns...
Read MoreLast Licks
Streak Over
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- KRE Regional...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Getting Short-Term Stretched
Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to extend its winning streak to five, which has not happened since...
Read MoreLast Licks
Long Streaks
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- RSP Eql...
Read MorePostScript
March and Q1'23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX After a +3% March 2- After Back-to-Back +5% Qtrs. 3- Quarterly Win Streaks 4-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Quarter End Trends
Key Points: 1- Notwithstanding a huge roll-over today, the SPX will avoid back-to-back monthly declines...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Leveraging the Move
Key Points: 1-While the big daily moves continue to suggest a risky trading environment, higher lows...
Read MoreLast Licks
The Latest 1% Gain
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- NDX 6-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Chance
Key Points: 1- While the SPX has failed to extend beyond its breakout point yet, it has done a fairly...
Read MoreLast Licks
Similar Feel
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- ARKK 6- SMH...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Technology & Bonds
Key Points: 1- Recently, XLK Technology has performed a lot better than TLT. This suggests a mean reverting...
Read MoreLast Licks
Quiet Mean Reversion
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- XLE Energy...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two Straight Weekly Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged two straight 1.4% weekly gains. While notching another weekly advance...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 3/24/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLC Comm Services 5- MTUM Momentum 6- SMH Semiconductors...
Read MoreMorning Trends
A Missing Ingredient
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s sporadic winning streaks since 2022 have made for a trying trading environment. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Damage Control
Key Points: 1- With the 10-Year Yield having led the Fed Funds rate at every major inflection point over...
Read MoreLast Licks
Words Matter
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- US Dollar...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Needs to Happen Next
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield was higher two weeks after the FOMC decision three of the last four...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Few More Hours…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- BETZ Sports...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Looking for Momentum
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s recent comeback has formed the next potential bullish formation. A close above...
Read MoreLast Licks
Break in the Action
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- XLC Comm Services...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two Markets
Key Points: 1- 7/11 Sector ETFs advanced last week, but 60% of the SPX’s components declined. Even more...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 3/17/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +/-1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX vs. IWM R2k 4- XLF Financials 5- IWF Large Cap...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Two Way Volatility
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- VIX +30% Week study 2- VIX Chart 3- +/-1% Moves 2023 vs....
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns, Breadth & Seasonality
Key Points: 1- The RSP/SPX relative ratio’s 14-Day RSI indicator plummeted to 14 yesterday, which is...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Lot Going on
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- XLI Industrials...
Read MoreMorning Trends
1% Moves Just Don’t Stop
Key Points: 1- If we can trust one trend since the start of 2022, it’s that sizable gains AND losses...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Reaction Now... and Later
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today’s session with the lowest RSI reading (34) on a CPI release date...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Pause… for Some
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- XLE Energy...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What It all Means for the SPX
Key Points: 1- The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index hit extreme FEAR on Friday, just five weeks after...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 3/10/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: -4% Weeks Last 30 Years 2- Breadth 3- IWM Small Caps 4- XLF Financials 5- VIX...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two 1.5% Losses in the Same Week
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s big down session was the index’s second loss greater than 1.5% of the week...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Head on a Swivel
Key Points: 1- Over the last 18 trading days, the SPX has logged six +/-1% moves and twelve moves of...
Read MoreMorning Trends
1% Declines, Trading Ranges and Breadth
Key Points: 1- Tuesday’s 1.5% decline ended a modest streak of six straight days of no 1% down moves. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downtrend Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- KRE Regional...
Read MoreMorning Trends
New Patterns to Watch
Key Points: 1- We look at two potential pattern scenarios below for the SPX – one bearish and one bullish....
Read MoreLast Licks
Mixed Action
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLB Materials 5- IWM R2k...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After Two Strong Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% weekly advance of 2023 last week. When the index logged more...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 3/3/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: 1% Weeks Per Year 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLB Materials 5- RSP Equal Weight S&P500...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Reversal
Key Points: 9 reasons yesterday’s reversal could trigger a bigger up move. Select Charts from Last...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Key Levels
In tonight’s video, we’re reviewing: 1- US Dollar Charts 2- US Dollar Study 3- SPX Patterns 4- 10 Year...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Teetering on Key Support
Key Points: 1- An immediate rollover from here would complete the SPX’s latest potential bearish formation....
Read MoreLast Licks
No Rebound Yet
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Staples 5- XLU Utilities...
Read MorePostScript
February'23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX After a +2% February 2- Monthly SPX 3- March Seasonality 4- Monthly Breadth 5-...
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Subscribers to CappThesis will receive dependable, thoughtful, authentic and succinct analysis throughout each week.