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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Last Licks
Small Caps Trying
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Clusters of Big Down Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Starts with Good Closes
Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Some Green
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long Weekly Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/22/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Daily Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Pattern Triggered
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Fed Volatility
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in...
Read MoreLast Licks
Almost Time
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns and New Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
September's Second Half
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/15/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Notes
SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Never Forget
Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2-...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the...
Read MoreLast Licks
All Over the Place
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Familiar Start
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except...
Read MoreMorning Trends
IWM, SPX and RSP
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Breadth
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Snapback
Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Two Thirds of '23 Done
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Well
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns & Indicators
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder....
Read MoreLast Licks
A Winning Streak
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive
Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/25/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action....
Read MoreLast Licks
No Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: Comm Services 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Positive Start… for Some
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third straight weekly decline. The last longer weekly streak...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/18/23
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, XME –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Negative Momentum
Key Points: 1- With the SPX closing at its lowest level since June 26th, it breached the first real support...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Patterns & Oversold Stocks Near Support
Key Points: 1- The good news: the continued sell off has pulled the SPX closer to real support zones...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Volatility, Sentiment and the SPX
Key Points: 1- Despite yesterday’s 1% decline, the number of +/-1% SPX daily moves still is small compared...
Read MoreLast Licks
Back to Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The First Step: Closing Better
Key Points: 1- The recent combination of weak large cap growth and infrequent strong closes has equated...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Gets a Bid
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now
Key Points: 1- If rotation is going to continue, then the next real bid should appear in the lagging...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/11/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Measuring the Drawdown
Key Points: 1- A key early theme for August has been a lack of buy interest, and that is best represented...
Read MoreLast Licks
Another Close on the Lows
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a CPI report for three straight months, starting...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Topping Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished below the breakdown zone near 4,530 yesterday, thus, it triggered a three-week...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weakness Under the Surface
Key Points: 1- Breadth on the index level was poor in the 30-40% range yesterday, but it wasn’t extreme. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Slow August Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Strong… Again
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into July’s last day up nearly 3% for the month, which will be the fifth...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/28/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- It doesn’t have to be immediate, but for yesterday to mark a true turning point, we’ll...
Read MoreBreaking Out
New Highs & Negative Reversals
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Performance -SPX intra-day -SPX negative reversal...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Next SPX Target in the Crosshairs
Key Points: 1- If this morning’s early strength holds, the SPX will have hit its latest upside target...
Read MoreLast Licks
Unchanged on Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Inching Higher
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLB Materials 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
Energy & Financials
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another BIG Week
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its second straight weekly advance and now has been higher in 8/10...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Response
Key Points: 1- Eight S&P sectors had positive internals yesterday, with the top five flashing adv-dec...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Growth Cracks; the Field Holds
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Sector Performance -Market Maps Intra Day vs. YTD...
Read MoreMorning Trends
+20% from the March Lows
Key Points: 1- Traditional overbought readings haven’t played out as well as they did in 2022 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Quiet, but Another Up Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Latest Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX hit the 4,540-target yesterday, which took about eight weeks since the 5/26 breakout. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Sentiment & How a Top Could Play Out
Key Points: 1- Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader recently noted that investors now favor stocks over bonds...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Bullish Patterns
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weekly Moves: 2023 vs. 2022
Key Points: 1- In 2022, there were 19 weekly absolute moves of at least +/-3% (9 up, 10 down). In 2023,...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/14/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Breakouts, Small Index Moves & New Highs
Key Points: 1- The SPX has proven it can hold breakouts over the last few weeks and months; we have to...
Read MoreBreaking Out
The Crashing Dollar
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: US Dollar (6) SPX (3) Bitcoin (3) Market Stats & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX & US Dollar
Key Points: 1- By holding above yesterday’s opening gap, the SPX completed the latest bullish formation...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Green Post CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
CPI, MACD and Chart Set-Ups
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off two straight months of net-positive two-week price action post CPI,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Equal Weight S&P Sector ETFs
Key Points: 1- A better way to view yesterday’s action is through the lens of the S&P’s equal weight...
Read MoreLast Licks
Strong Participation… Despite Big Missing Pieces
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Gets Interesting Now
Key Points: 1- The “dip” currently doesn’t appear too different than other pauses over the last four...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/7/2023
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: OIH, USO –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weekly Moves, Breadth & Bonds
Key Points: 1- As of now, the SPX is set to notch its second weekly decline in the last three weeks –...
Read MoreLast Licks
SPX Holds, but Breadth Worsens
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX, Germany, Japan & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off two days of small price movement, it has the chance to form another...
Read MoreLast Licks
Holding… on Light Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLRE Real Estate 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Drawdown Scenarios
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s comeback to conclude June keeps alive the potential for another continuation...
Read MorePostScript
June & Q2'23
Topics Covered: 1- July SPX After +10% First Six months 2- Rest of Year after Strong First Six months...
Read MoreLast Licks
Baton Passed Back to Value
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Indicator Check-Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX has routinely hit the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands in 2023. It literally...
Read MoreMorning Trends
"Who Cares? It's Going Up"
Key Points: 1- In a Twitter poll I ran yesterday, 70% of the respondents were bullish; 30% were bearish. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth's Turn
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX, NASDAQ, High Yield Bonds & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX has stayed above the 50-Day MA late March, easily the longest streak above the...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Falters; the Field Holds
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Trends Trend
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into the last week of the year’s second quarter +4% for June, +5.8% for...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/23/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Trend
Key Points: 1- The recent pause has taken place after one of the SPX’s biggest weekly advances we’ve...
Read MoreLast Licks
Losing Streak Over Thanks to…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discr 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Framing the Pullback
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Thursday trying to avoid its first 4-day losing streak since May 1-4. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/16/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks, Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Weekly Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX could log its second 3% weekly move this week of 2023. For some context: in...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Reaction
Key Points: 1- Seeing the 10-Year Yield move materially higher into the next FOMC meeting would encourage...
Read MoreLast Licks
Felt Like a Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Expected Pause
Key Points: 1- Since last July, the 10-Year Yield was noticeably lower two weeks after a FOMC decision...
Read MoreLast Licks
Broad Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Oscillating Between CPI Dates
Key Points: 1- Since November’22, the SPX has alternated gains and losses in the four-week periods between...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Leads in front of CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Biggest Week Since mid-December
Key Points: 1- The last time both CPI and the FOMC occurred during the same week was December’22– CPI...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/9/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- From trough to peak, the SPX is +23% in about seven months. It logged a near 20% advance...
Read MoreMorning Trends
How Long Can the Perfect Rotation Last?
Key Points: 1- The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (+0.74%) outperformed the SPX (-0.38%) by 1.12% yesterday....
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Risk of Strong Internals
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new 20-Day High, and the SPX did not. 2-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Update
Observations: ETFs The big gainers have outnumbered big decliners by a large margin all day. ETF...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Hitting the Latest Pattern Target Means
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Tuesday after achieving its latest upside pattern target near 4,300. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Close after SPX Hits Target
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comms Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two Straight 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to 69 in early February; it finished at 66 on Friday. More...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/2/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Screening for Breakouts
Key Points: 1-A recent stock/ETF bullish screen we ran kicked out 56 ETFs. The most interesting part...
Read MoreLast Licks
Solid Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
A Closer Look at XLK Technology
Key Points: 1- XLK saw its 14-Day RSI hit 76 early yesterday. That was the highest mark since November’21...
Read MoreLast Licks
No Change…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Overbought vs. Oversold
Key Points: 1- Last Friday’s +1.3% gain triggered the SPX’s bigger bullish pattern for the second time...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 5/26/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Not Historically Extreme
Key Points: 1- The NDX/Willshire 5k Index is stretched on the daily chart, as the 14-Day RSI is near...
Read MoreBreaking Out
One for the Ages
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Semis: NVDA MU SMH SPX: 100-Day Study Chart Patterns ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
When Breakouts Work
Key Points: 1- NVDA was among one of the first stocks to break out of a multi-month base back in January. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Digestion
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Taking a Punch
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s latest breakouts no longer are live; the pattern breakout from 3/31 remains...
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