Newsletters Test
Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Opening Look
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Testing the Line
Key Points: 1- The major difference between Thursday’s 30 bps decline and Wednesday’s 20 bps dip was...
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The Best Three Week Run
Key Points: 1- The S&P 500 has had positive market internals 70% of the time since the October 27...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Strong Response
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has registered three absolute 1% moves (2 up, 1 down) in March at nearly the...
Read MoreOpening Look
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A Winning Streak No One is Talking About
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after the CPI report for four straight months before...
Read MoreChart Trades
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03/12/24 - 2 Shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Four Straight Successful Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- Before rolling over on Friday, the SPX acquired its latest bullish pattern target of 5,180,...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 3/8/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Channels –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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A Day Later
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged 14 1% gains vs. four 1% losses since the October low. 2-...
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AAPL vs. SPX: Most Oversold Ever
Key Points: 1- AAPL ranks 74/75 among the S&P 500’s Technology stocks YTD. 2- The AAPL/SPX relative...
Read MoreChart Trades
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03/07/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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After a 1% Decline
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged four 1% losses since the October’23 lows – one each in December,...
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The First Time in 11 Weeks
Key Points: 1- For the first time in eleven weeks, more than 100 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs...
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February Performance & March Outlook
Topics Covered: -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – February -Patterns – March -March Seasonality...
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An Extra Day
Key Points: 1- The SPX has outperformed its historical bias in January and February (with one day left)....
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Rallies & Drawdowns
Key Points: 1- The SPX has gained 24% from the 10/27/23 low to the most recent 2/23/24 high. Along the...
Read MoreChart Trades
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Chart Trades - 02/27/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 2/23/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Pattern Breakout
Key Points: 1- A new bullish pattern was triggered yesterday for the SPX: target 5,180. 2- The big move...
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Not Yet...
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s hold yesterday produced a higher low vs. the 2/14 low point, which keeps the...
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Watch this Trendline
Key Points: 1– The SPX hasn’t had more than two straight negative breadth sessions since four in...
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The Staircase Advance
Key Points: 1– A new potential bullish pattern has been building for the SPX after the bounce back. ...
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No Downside Follow Through
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% declines since the 10/27/23 low, and each one has been immediately...
Read MoreChart Trades
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02/14/24 - 4 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Nothing has Changed Yet
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown got to -2.6% at yesterday’s low, which now is the largest peak-to-trough...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 2/9/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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5 Factors Driving the Market Higher
Key Points: We review each of these below: 1-Good closes 2-Short daily streaks of negative breadth...
Read MoreChart Trades
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02/08/24 - 2 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Milestones
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s eventual first push above 5k has a high probability of being revisited if history...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Before and After the Big Daily Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX has had just two 1% declines in the last 71 trading days. Over that same time,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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New Highs vs. New Lows
Key Points: 1- On 12/14/24, 107 S&P 500 holdings made new 52-week highs, which was the high mark...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Three Straight 1% Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished last week with three straight absolute 1% moves, which last happened...
Read MorePostScript
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January Performance & February Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – January -Patterns – February -February...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Two Potential Bearish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had two 1% declines in the last 64 trading days. 2- We’re watching...
Read MoreOpening Look
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FOMC, SPX & the 10-Year Yield
Key Points: 1- Over the last two years, there have been 16 FOMC decisions. Eight times the SPX was lower...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX achieved its latest pattern target of 4,920 on Monday, logging its fourth best...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Drawdowns, Breadth & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown has been -2.4% since the October lows despite plenty of potential...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 1/26/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks 2021-24 –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Trading Boxes
Key Points: 1- For the SPX, it’s been a series of breakouts, extensions, pauses, breakouts, extensions,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Long Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days. Since the start of 2009, the SPX has had 64 winning...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Three Key Factors
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point 9/11 times going back to 1/8… and...
Read MoreChart Trades
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01/23/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short
Below are four buys and one short idea. The first three buys are names within the NASDAQ Next Gen 100...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Rallies vs. Drawdowns
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s breadth was just as robust yesterday (72% advancing stocks) as it was on Friday...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Breakouts, Bullish Patterns and 1% Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged nine 1% gains vs. one 1% decline since 10/26/23 – or 57 trading...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 1/19/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – 12-week ROC –Best 20 ETFs: New...
Read MoreOpening Look
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One Time in 56 Trading Sessions
Key Points: 1- The afternoon up-swings have been gradually happening earlier over the last four days:...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Tug of War
Key Points: 1- The short-term conundrum: The SPX now has declined in 4/6 sessions and has had negative...
Read MoreOpening Look
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A Notable Change in Daily Breadth
Key Points: 1- Since 12/29/23, there have been 11 trading days. Over that time, the % of advancing S&P...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 1/12/24
Topics Covered: Market -Weekly performance -Key weekly moving averages -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Good Closes Continue
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day midpoint for: 4/4 days (100%) 19/24 days (79%)...
Read MoreOpening Look
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CPI, Momentum Divergence and Crypto
Key Points: 1- This is the first time in the last three releases that the SPX’s 14-day RSI is NOT overbought...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Japan Focus
Key Points: 1- The SPX followed Monday’s 1.4% gain with a tiny loss yesterday, which is nothing new. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The First Bounce of '24
Key Points: 1- The SPX respected the middle line of the Bollinger Bands yesterday – its 20-Day MA. The...
Read MoreOpening Look
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What the Short-term Work is Telling Us
Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its intra-day mid-point again on Friday, which has become a short-term...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending - 1/5/24
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IHF, MSOS –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Retracement
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the SPX closed below its 20-Day Moving Average for the first time since 11/2. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Indicator Check Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/28 high now is -2%, which is still less than each of the...
Read MoreChart Trades
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2023 Wrap & 2024 Game Plan
Stats: Of the trade ideas we conveyed, 25 went live. 20 buys: 60%-win rate 5 shorts: 80%-win rate Each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Now vs. August'23
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour 14-period RSI hit its lowest level (41) since the October lows on Tuesday. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
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What's Next
Key Points: 1- The NDX just logged its best year since 1999. The NDX is +1% since its November’21 high. ...
Read MoreChart Trades
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12/20/23 - Final 2023 Report
Observations Given the continued light run up through yesterday, we held off on issuing any new buy...
Read MoreOpening Look
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No Short-Term Blemishes
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point for nine consecutive days and 13/14....
Read MoreOpening Look
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SPX's 14-Day RSI > 80
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI closed above 80 yesterday for the first time since 9/1/20. That...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Seven Straight Up Weeks
Key Points: 1- The SPX is up seven-straight weeks, its sixth streak of at least seven straight weekly...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Most Impressive Part of this Rally
Key Points: 1- We compare this comeback to the Q4 2019 extension and post COVID 2020 snapback below....
Read MoreOpening Look
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Two SPX Targets Hit
Key Points: 1- With the 1.4% spike, the SPX achieved two of our pattern targets, 4,675 and 4,700. That...
Read MoreOpening Look
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FOMC, New Highs & Winning Streaks
Key Points: 1- So far in 2023, there have been seven FOMC meetings. Two weeks later, the SPX has been...
Read MoreChart Trades
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12/13/23 - Full Report & 3 New Buys
Observations With the market’s extension showing no cracks yet ahead of the FOMC, many stocks...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Overbought, Bullish Patterns & CPI
Key Points: 1- This is the fourth time in 2023 that the SPX enters CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 12/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Now vs. Late July
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...
Read MoreChart Trades
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12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns
Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Next 1% Day
Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...
Read MoreOpening Look
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A Key Streak & Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Rotating and Retracing
Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....
Read MoreOpening Look
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1% Moves Tell the Story
Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained. In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...
Read MorePostScript
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November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23
Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...
Read MoreOpening Look
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November's Two Halves
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...
Read MoreChart Trades
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11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys
Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Sellers' Strike
Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...
Read MoreChart Trades
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11/27/23 - Two Buys
Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 11/24/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
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After the Feast
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Steep Uptrend Line
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low. We...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Round Trip
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Large Three-Week Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks. Prior three-week advances of at least...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 11/17/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Next Patterns
Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Encore
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move...
Read MoreOpening Look
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1% Gains & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days. For some context, the...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 11/10/23
Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Searching for Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Consolidating with Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight...
Read MoreChart Trades
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A New CappThesis Report
What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts. How is...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Next 5%
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Need for Digestion
Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 11/3/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth:...
Read MoreOpening Look
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More 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Comparing the Rebounds
Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August. The other two looked...
Read MorePostScript
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October'23
Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly...
Read MoreChart Trades
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October Wrap
Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Attempt
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. ...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 10/27/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Selling Pressure
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month...
Read MoreChart Trades
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One New Short Idea
Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited....
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SPX & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s...
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Streaks in 2023
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced...
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1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week. The last time the index endured at least two...
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Two Financial Stocks
The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out. The...
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Week Ending 10/20/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
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Downside Momentum
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and...
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Holding Near a Key Zone
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited. Five...
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Three Key Traits
Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September. All three...
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Week Ending 10/13/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly...
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Test Number One (w/Video)
Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD &...
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Four Straight
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days. Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day...
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A 3-Day Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August. The three-day...
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