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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Chart Trades
GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS
The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop. That was...
Read MoreOpening Look
Big Two-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/6/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreOpening Look
Support Still Being Tested
Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last...
Read MoreOpening Look
In Search of a Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent...
Read MoreChart Trades
COST, ISRG
COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on...
Read MoreOpening Look
In the Zone
Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring...
Read MoreOpening Look
Separation
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced...
Read MorePostScript
September & Q3'23
Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps...
Read MoreMorning Trends
CappThesis - Year One in the Books
Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide...
Read MoreLast Licks
Small Caps Trying
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Clusters of Big Down Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Starts with Good Closes
Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Some Green
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long Weekly Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/22/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Daily Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Pattern Triggered
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Fed Volatility
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in...
Read MoreLast Licks
Almost Time
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns and New Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
September's Second Half
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/15/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Notes
SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Never Forget
Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2-...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the...
Read MoreLast Licks
All Over the Place
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Familiar Start
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except...
Read MoreMorning Trends
IWM, SPX and RSP
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Breadth
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Snapback
Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Two Thirds of '23 Done
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Well
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns & Indicators
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder....
Read MoreLast Licks
A Winning Streak
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive
Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/25/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action....
Read MoreLast Licks
No Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: Comm Services 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Positive Start… for Some
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third straight weekly decline. The last longer weekly streak...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/18/23
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, XME –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Negative Momentum
Key Points: 1- With the SPX closing at its lowest level since June 26th, it breached the first real support...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Patterns & Oversold Stocks Near Support
Key Points: 1- The good news: the continued sell off has pulled the SPX closer to real support zones...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Volatility, Sentiment and the SPX
Key Points: 1- Despite yesterday’s 1% decline, the number of +/-1% SPX daily moves still is small compared...
Read MoreLast Licks
Back to Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The First Step: Closing Better
Key Points: 1- The recent combination of weak large cap growth and infrequent strong closes has equated...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Gets a Bid
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now
Key Points: 1- If rotation is going to continue, then the next real bid should appear in the lagging...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/11/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Measuring the Drawdown
Key Points: 1- A key early theme for August has been a lack of buy interest, and that is best represented...
Read MoreLast Licks
Another Close on the Lows
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a CPI report for three straight months, starting...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Topping Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished below the breakdown zone near 4,530 yesterday, thus, it triggered a three-week...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weakness Under the Surface
Key Points: 1- Breadth on the index level was poor in the 30-40% range yesterday, but it wasn’t extreme. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Slow August Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Strong… Again
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into July’s last day up nearly 3% for the month, which will be the fifth...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/28/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- It doesn’t have to be immediate, but for yesterday to mark a true turning point, we’ll...
Read MoreBreaking Out
New Highs & Negative Reversals
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Performance -SPX intra-day -SPX negative reversal...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Next SPX Target in the Crosshairs
Key Points: 1- If this morning’s early strength holds, the SPX will have hit its latest upside target...
Read MoreLast Licks
Unchanged on Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Inching Higher
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLB Materials 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
Energy & Financials
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another BIG Week
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its second straight weekly advance and now has been higher in 8/10...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Response
Key Points: 1- Eight S&P sectors had positive internals yesterday, with the top five flashing adv-dec...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Growth Cracks; the Field Holds
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Sector Performance -Market Maps Intra Day vs. YTD...
Read MoreMorning Trends
+20% from the March Lows
Key Points: 1- Traditional overbought readings haven’t played out as well as they did in 2022 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Quiet, but Another Up Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Latest Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX hit the 4,540-target yesterday, which took about eight weeks since the 5/26 breakout. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Sentiment & How a Top Could Play Out
Key Points: 1- Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader recently noted that investors now favor stocks over bonds...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Bullish Patterns
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weekly Moves: 2023 vs. 2022
Key Points: 1- In 2022, there were 19 weekly absolute moves of at least +/-3% (9 up, 10 down). In 2023,...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/14/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Breakouts, Small Index Moves & New Highs
Key Points: 1- The SPX has proven it can hold breakouts over the last few weeks and months; we have to...
Read MoreBreaking Out
The Crashing Dollar
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: US Dollar (6) SPX (3) Bitcoin (3) Market Stats & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX & US Dollar
Key Points: 1- By holding above yesterday’s opening gap, the SPX completed the latest bullish formation...
Read MoreLast Licks
More Green Post CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
CPI, MACD and Chart Set-Ups
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off two straight months of net-positive two-week price action post CPI,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Equal Weight S&P Sector ETFs
Key Points: 1- A better way to view yesterday’s action is through the lens of the S&P’s equal weight...
Read MoreLast Licks
Strong Participation… Despite Big Missing Pieces
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Gets Interesting Now
Key Points: 1- The “dip” currently doesn’t appear too different than other pauses over the last four...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/7/2023
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: OIH, USO –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weekly Moves, Breadth & Bonds
Key Points: 1- As of now, the SPX is set to notch its second weekly decline in the last three weeks –...
Read MoreLast Licks
SPX Holds, but Breadth Worsens
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX, Germany, Japan & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off two days of small price movement, it has the chance to form another...
Read MoreLast Licks
Holding… on Light Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLRE Real Estate 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Drawdown Scenarios
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s comeback to conclude June keeps alive the potential for another continuation...
Read MorePostScript
June & Q2'23
Topics Covered: 1- July SPX After +10% First Six months 2- Rest of Year after Strong First Six months...
Read MoreLast Licks
Baton Passed Back to Value
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Indicator Check-Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX has routinely hit the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands in 2023. It literally...
Read MoreMorning Trends
"Who Cares? It's Going Up"
Key Points: 1- In a Twitter poll I ran yesterday, 70% of the respondents were bullish; 30% were bearish. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth's Turn
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
SPX, NASDAQ, High Yield Bonds & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX has stayed above the 50-Day MA late March, easily the longest streak above the...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Falters; the Field Holds
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Trends Trend
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into the last week of the year’s second quarter +4% for June, +5.8% for...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/23/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Trend
Key Points: 1- The recent pause has taken place after one of the SPX’s biggest weekly advances we’ve...
Read MoreLast Licks
Losing Streak Over Thanks to…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discr 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Framing the Pullback
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Thursday trying to avoid its first 4-day losing streak since May 1-4. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/16/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks, Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Weekly Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX could log its second 3% weekly move this week of 2023. For some context: in...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Real Reaction
Key Points: 1- Seeing the 10-Year Yield move materially higher into the next FOMC meeting would encourage...
Read MoreLast Licks
Felt Like a Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Expected Pause
Key Points: 1- Since last July, the 10-Year Yield was noticeably lower two weeks after a FOMC decision...
Read MoreLast Licks
Broad Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Oscillating Between CPI Dates
Key Points: 1- Since November’22, the SPX has alternated gains and losses in the four-week periods between...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Leads in front of CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Biggest Week Since mid-December
Key Points: 1- The last time both CPI and the FOMC occurred during the same week was December’22– CPI...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/9/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- From trough to peak, the SPX is +23% in about seven months. It logged a near 20% advance...
Read MoreMorning Trends
How Long Can the Perfect Rotation Last?
Key Points: 1- The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (+0.74%) outperformed the SPX (-0.38%) by 1.12% yesterday....
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Risk of Strong Internals
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new 20-Day High, and the SPX did not. 2-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Update
Observations: ETFs The big gainers have outnumbered big decliners by a large margin all day. ETF...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Hitting the Latest Pattern Target Means
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Tuesday after achieving its latest upside pattern target near 4,300. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Close after SPX Hits Target
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comms Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Two Straight 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to 69 in early February; it finished at 66 on Friday. More...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 6/2/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreSubscribe Today
Subscribers to CappThesis will receive dependable, thoughtful, authentic and succinct analysis throughout each week.