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A Breather

Key Points The SPX’s streak of five straight 1%+ moves ended yesterday with a modest 20 bps decline—its...

A Familiar Setup

Key Points The SPX logged its second straight 1.8% gain on Monday – its third huge advance in the...

One for the Ages

SPX Weekly Track  It was one for the ages last week. The SPX’s total net percentage move...

Week of 4/14/25

SPX Weekly Track  It was one for the ages last week. The SPX’s total net percentage move...

When to Use Short-Term Charts… Now

Key Points The massive daily swings continued yesterday—which wasn’t all that surprising after we just...

Ultimate Face Ripping

Key Points Well… we’d been waiting for the first real bid after the SPX logged six declines of at least...

41% Move in Two Days

  Key Points The rollercoaster continued on Tuesday, with the SPX suffering one of the biggest intraday...

The First Bounce Attempt

Key Points The epic moves continue, with the difference yesterday being that demand finally surfaced....

Week of 4/7/25

SPX Weekly Track   Weekly Key Levels This is the true definition of price...

The Reaction

Let’s jump right into it. With S&P 500 futures testing the March lows, the SPX cash index will open...

Key Levels

Key Points The SPX kicked off April much like it closed out March — with a muted gain ahead of today’s...

April & 2Q 2025

SPX – Key March Stats -5.8% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 13/21 trading days -Closed...

Epic Month

Key Points The SPX logged its 12th absolute 1% move of March on Friday; its eighth 1% decline and its...

Running in Place

Key Points It was a quiet session on Thursday, with the SPX trading in a tight range, ping-ponging between...

3/27/25 - Another 2022 Comparison

Another 2022 Comparison

The SPX’s streak of tight, muted moves ended abruptly on Wednesday, with the index opened slightly higher...

Pausing

Key Points The SPX squeaked out a marginal gain on Tuesday, with a late round of buying in the final...

This Now has Happened 3 Times Since 2023

Key Points The SPX logged its third gain in four days on Monday—also marking its second 1% advance in...

Another Rally Attempt

Steep Downtrend Line BreaksSimply by moving sideways over the past few days, the SPX finally broke through...

Week of 3/24/25

  Steep Downtrend Line BreaksSimply by moving sideways over the past few days, the SPX finally broke...

March 2025

Volatile Bounce

  Key Points The SPX responded well to the FOMC’s non-decision on rates and the relatively uneventful...

SPX & FOMC

Key Points The two-day winning streak is over. The last time the SPX logged more than two consecutive...

Breadth Surge

Key Points The SPX logged its second straight gain on Monday, marking the first back-to-back advance...

After Four-Week Losing Streaks

SPX Weekly Track  After 4-Week Losing Streaks The SPX just recorded its...

Week of 3/17/25

SPX Weekly Track    After 4-Week Losing Streaks The SPX just recorded...

The Consistent Trend

Key Points The familiar intra-day pattern played out once again on Thursday, with the S&P 500 (SPX)...

3/13/25 - Tepid Buy Interest

Tepid Buy Interest

Key Points For the second straight day, midday demand appeared—but once again, it lacked the follow-through...

SPX vs. 20-Day Moving Average

Key Points The good news: the SPX staged a strong intraday comeback yesterday, avoided another 1% decline,...

Oversold, Patterns & Divergences

Key Points The first-quarter sell-off intensified on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%—its biggest...

Weekly Charts, Sentiment & a Key Comparison

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Channel The SPX just logged its third...

Week of 3/10/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Channel The SPX just logged its third straight...

Support and Stock Screens

Key Points Downside pressure continued on Thursday, with the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline in the...

March’25 vs. Aug’24

Key Points Two-way volatility remains the defining theme of 2025, and Wednesday was no exception. A flat...

Six SPX Charts

Broadening Formation Tuesday’s weak open pushed the SPX below its January low, marking the first true...

Two Oversold Indicators

Key Points Volatility surged on Tuesday, with a gap lower, a sharp +2.3% intraday rally that briefly...

Another Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Key Points Volatility remained elevated on Monday, with the SPX recording its third consecutive absolute...

March'25

SPX – Key February Stats -1.4 % monthly loss   -Up 10/19 trading days -Positive breadth 11/19 trading...

Sentiment & Chart Patterns

Key Points The SPX logged its sixth consecutive decline on Thursday, once again failing to hold early...

2/27/25 - Five Straight Declines

Five Straight Declines

Key Points The SPX gave up an early advance on Wednesday, briefly paused, and then declined through 2:00...

Depressed Stocks & NVDA

Depressed Stocks After four straight days of losses, many stocks have taken a hit. So how do we identify...

Two Straight Bad Closes

Key Points For the second consecutive day, the SPX closed near its lows. On Friday, the downtrend began...

Friday's Big Decline

SPX Weekly Track  Friday Friday’s deluge turned a small weekly gain...

Week of 2/24/25

SPX Weekly Track  Friday Friday’s deluge turned a small weekly gain...

Assessing the Cracks

Key Points Before bouncing yesterday, the S&P 500 was on track for its second-worst session since...

Why Breakouts Have Worked So Well

Key PointsThe combination of a tepid gain alongside strong supportive breadth continued on Wednesday,...

The Two Most Important Uptrend Traits

Key PointsThe combination of a tepid gain alongside strong supportive breadth continued on Wednesday,...

2/20/25 - Three Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Breakouts & 1% Moves

Key Points The SPX started the holiday-shortened week with a modest 24 bps gain, highlighted by a late-session...

SPX, the Dollar & META

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was...

Week of 2/18/25

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was the...

Friday Charts

Today, we’re focusing on the patterns. With the SPX closing above 6,100,...

Breakouts

Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain since 1/17 on Thursday, which was 17 trading days ago. That...

2/14/25 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Respecting Support

Key Points The SPX wasted no time in snapping back from yesterday’s hot inflation numbers, with the index...

The Market Strength Indicator

Key Points By the slimmest of margins, the S&P 500 scratched out a tiny 3 bps gain on Tuesday.  Appropriately,...

Dissecting the Trading Range

Key Points The S&P 500 scratched and clawed its way to a 0.7% gain on Monday, which was the index’s...

Key Weekly Support Lines

Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle of its long-term...

Week of 2/10/25

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled...

Stock Chart Rundown

Post-Earnings PLTR With this week’s huge reaction to earnings, PLTR’s 14-week RSI has shot back to 82,...

A Key Indicator

Key Points For the third straight day, the SPX opened lower, pivoted, rallied, and closed near its intraday...

Uptrend Traits

Key Points The SPX trended higher all day on Tuesday and closed near its highs on neutral volume. That...

Turnaround Mondays

Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...

Another Turnaround Monday

Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...

February'25

SPX – Key January Stats +2.7% monthly gain   -Up 12/20 trading days -Positive breadth 12/20 trading days -Closed...

Key Post Earnings Charts

META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...

Post Earnings Charts

META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...

Pick Your Favorite Pattern

Key Points It felt and looked like a FOMC day yesterday – even before 2:00 PM this time – and by 4:00,...

The Two Wild Days Before FOMC

Key Points The SPX snapped back from Monday’s 1.5% decline and just missed logging a 1% gain. Thus, the...

The Epic Breadth Shift

Key Points The SPX logged its third 1% loss of January on Monday, and at -1.46%, it was the worst showing...

Key Charts & Levels

  Key Points On Friday afternoon, seeing the SPX close at a new all-time weekly high and followed...

The Next Phase

Key Points The SPX leveraged the huge spike in the final 15 minutes yesterday to notch its fourth straight...

1/24/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Pausing at New All-Time Highs

Key Points The SPX logged its third straight gain on Wednesday, marginally (and briefly) making a new...

The Strong Breadth Streak

Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...

Extreme Positive Internals Continue

Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...

Another Weekly Reversal

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held...

Week of 1/21/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held...

Four Straight 70% SPX Breadth Days

Key Point The SPX notched its fourth consecutive trading session with at least 70% of its holdings advancing...

January 2025

Battleground

Key Point With the SPX’s bearish breakdown zone being below 5,850 and the bullish breakout zone being...

RSP’s Positive Reversal

Intra-Day The SPX logged an old-fashioned positive reversal and closed near its highs on strong breadth...

1/14/25 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

  Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

SPX Weekly Track   Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things,...

Week of 1/13/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things,...

Key Levels & Rally Attempts

Key Point From just about any perspective, it’s clear that the SPX is at a critical technical juncture:...

Breadth Update

Key Point Through yesterday, 53% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages...

Judging the Bounce

Key Point Since October’23, the SPX has routinely gotten overbought on the short-term two-hour chart....

1/7/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Two Way Volatility in 2025

Key Point Friday marked the SPX’s first 1% gain of 2025, but it was the SIXTH absolute 1% move in the...

Long Losing Streaks

Key Point The SPX’s five-day decline now is the longest losing streak since six straight from April 12-19,...

1/3/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

January Charts & Stats

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed...

January'25

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed...

Grand Finale’24

Thank You First and foremost, thank you ALL for supporting CappThesis in 2024.  It was an epic year for...

Next Steps

Key Point The SPX snapped back on Friday and finally notched a positive breadth session in December –...

Indicators, Sentiment & Losing Streaks

Key Point Needless to say, the December performance (of nearly everything aside from MAGS 7) has been...

Important Post-Fed Charts

Key Point The FOMC’s hawkish cut unleashed one of the harshest declines we’ve seen in 2024.  We assess...

Powell’s Turn

Key Point The SPX has had a very good track record two weeks after Fed meetings in 2024.  And the year’s...

The OTHER Breadth Streak that No One is Talking About

Key Point The SPX’s negative breadth streak now is at 11 straight, but none of the days have been extreme....

12/17/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Week of 12/16/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Negative breadth -RSP, SPX, MAGS, SMH -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term...

NVDA - Dec'24

  NVDA We cited NVDA as a buy idea in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market Comments

Topics Discussed   Buy the dip in an uptrend SRE   Bullish Pattern Breakouts ISRG, REG   Key Charts -Sector...

 SPX vs. RSP

Key Point: The RSP Equal Weight ETF has lost ground in 6 of the last 8 days and has dropped to the lower...

Digestion

Key Points: The SPX’s pause has come when it was supposed to – from an overbought s/t RSI, proximity...

The Bearish Breadth Streak

Key Points: We’re taking a close look at the current 6-day negative breadth streak vs. the 6-day streak...

SPX 6,100

  Three-Week Gains The SPX was up 4/5 days last week and notched its third straight weekly gain. However,...

SPX 6,099.97

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live...

Week of 12/9/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live...

ARKK, JETS and Bitcoin

Key Points: Given the SPX’s small move yesterday, we’re focusing on other areas today in the Key...

12/6/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Milestones

Key Points: The SPX is close to 6,100 and Bitcoin is above 100k.  We’re taking a close look across various...

Boring, Not Bearish

Key Point: By one measurement (the 2-day Average True Range), the SPX has just logged its lowest two-day...

Our Market Stance

Key Point: Consistently having live bullish patterns and targets in play tells us that we’re in an uptrend. ...

12/3/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

December'24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies   Monthly...

Happy Thanksgiving

Key Point: Two studies below depict the historical positive bias of the days right before and after Thanksgiving...

The Smallest 6-Day Winning Streak

Key Point: The SPX logged its sixth straight gain yesterday, with each daily advance being less than...

Trading Channels

 After 2% Weekly Declines The SPX snapped back by 1.7% last week, again showing buyers’ continued willingness...

Channel Surfing

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading...

Week of 11/25/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading...

Best Breadth in Two Weeks

Key Point; Yesterday was one of the strongest sessions we’ve had in a while, with 87% of the S&P...

Many Bullish Charts

Many Bullish Charts Even the most consistent trends are destined to be broken – no matter how short or...

November 2024

NVDA Chart Preview

  Earnings NVDA – First, let’s review the two pattern breakouts that we cited in a Chart Trades...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

The Most Likely Path

Key Point Yesterday on X, I showed two conflicting SPX charts, asking people which path was more likely...

-2% Weeks

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

Week of 11/18/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

3 Chart Trades

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

The Pause Continues

Key Point In Tuesday’s piece, “Short-term Stretched,” we reviewed a few charts that suggested the market...

4 Buys & Market Commentary

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

IGV Software Focus

Key Points: We’re focusing on the IGV Software ETF today. It’s been an obvious leader and now is short-term...

Short-term Stretched

Key Point: Given that the SPX is coming off the best weekly gain in over a year, it’s not outlandish...

Week of 11/11/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Four percent weekly gains -Long-term trading channel -SPX vs....

Indicator Checkup

Key Points: Not every indicator is overbought now, but many are near the high-end of their respective...

Another Bullish Pattern Target Achieved

Key Points: 1- With the SPX hitting the 5,900-target on Wednesday, it’s now the TENTH successful bullish...

11/7/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

The Opening Gap

Key Points: 1-    The early reaction to President Trump’s huge win last night is creating big gaps in...

Election Day Charts

Key Points: Today we’re looking at 10 election-related charts – none of which are related to polls, prediction...

Pre-Election Chart Setups

Key Points: 1- Since the breakout to new highs in September, the SPX has formed two trading boxes.  Box...