Newsletters Test

Trading Boxes, Rallies and Failed Tops

Key Points: 1- Why do we track trading boxes so closely?  Each trading range leads to one of two things...

The Pattern Battle Continues

Key Points: 1- The SPX had seven +/-1% moves in April, the most since October. From January 2022 through...

April'24 Performance & May Outlook

Topics Covered: SPX -Key Monthly Stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -After five straight up months end -May...

Choose Your Bias

Key Points: 1- The SPX continues to trace out potential bullish and bearish patterns.  See a lot more...

4/29/24

Topics Covered: Market -One Percent Gains -Market Strength Indicator -Bollinger Bands -MACD -Live Patterns -New...

Key Spot, Key Week

SPX The SPX capped off last week’s comeback with its second 1% gain of the week. Overall, we’ve seen...

Key Spot, Key Week

Key Points: 1-  The SPX logged two 1% gains last week.  There were at least two 1% gains during a calendar...

Week Ending 4/26/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, KWEB –Worst...

4/26/24

Market -Good closes -Live Patterns -Potential Patterns -SPX vs. 10-day moving average -New highs vs....

Another Good Close

Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its mid-point four straight days. This has been an about-face...

Pattern Battle

Key Points: 1- The Nikkei 225 fell 1% last evening, thus, it failed to recapture its pattern breakdown...

4/25/24 - 2 buys, 1 short

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Now vs. August'23

Key Points: 1- SPX had just a single 1% advance in 28 trading sessions before yesterday.  We don’t need...

Judging the Bounce

Key Points: 1- If we get some upside follow through, a MACD buy signal could be triggered soon. We last...

4/22/24

Market -Bearish streaks -The field holds -RSP vs. SPX -NDX -6-day losing streaks -Patterns -AVWAP      Stats -Daily price...

The Field Holds

Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today with two key streaks: It has logged six straight down days but...

Week Ending 4/19/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: JETS, KRE –Worst...

April 2024

New 52-Week Highs & Lows

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s number of new highs has been shrinking, and the number of new lows has been...

Bearish Streaks

Key Points: 1- The SPX has EIGHT different streaks in play after yesterday, and they are all bearish....

4/17/24 - 3 buys, 2 shorts

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

The Next Bounce

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a three-day losing streak.  The only streak longer than three since the...

Another First

Key Points: 1-The SPX followed Friday’s 1.5% decline with a 1.2% loss on Monday – the first back-to-back...

A Few Changes

Key Points: 1- From the point at which the SPX punctured its five-month uptrend line, it is down -2.1%. ...

Week Ending 4/12/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: PALL, SIL –Worst...

Uptrend Lines vs. Uptrends

Key Points: 1- The SPX breached its uptrend line from the October low last week, but it remains in a...

4/11/24

Topics Covered: Market -Drawdowns -Short-term -New highs vs. new lows -% S&P 500 stocks > moving...

Drawdowns, New High/Lows and Breadth

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current drawdown is -2.5%.  That’s among the largest multi-day pullbacks since...

CPI, SPX and Rates

Key Points: 1- Since the October’23 low, we’ve had five CPI reports.  The SPX has been higher two weeks...

Three Important Indicators

Key Points: 1- With the SPX still below the key uptrend line, there is a risk of it following through...

4/8/24

Topics Covered: Market -Trendline break -Daily RSI -1% Moves -Drawdowns -Short-term RSI -Patterns -AVWAP      Stats -Daily price...

What REALLY Changed?

Key Points: 1- The SPX followed last Thursday’s 1% loss with a 1% gain – this has happened five straight...

March / Q1 Performance & April / Q2 Outlook

Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Five straight up months -Patterns – March -Patterns...

Two More Days

Key Points: 1- SPY ended yesterday below the VWAP line anchored to last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting for...

The Most Bullish Trait

Key Points: 1- So far, the SPX has logged just three 1% moves in March (2 up and 1 down). This has continued...

3/25/24

Topics discussed: Market -Weekly breadth -NDX weekly -SPX Cumulative adv-dec line -% SPX stocks >...

Stock Market Breadth

Key Points: 1- 77% of the S&P 500’s stocks advanced last week, which was the best weekly breadth...

Week Ending 3/22/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, XHB –Worst...

100 Days

Key Points: 1- Today marks trading day number 100 since the 10/27/23 market low.  The SPX hit a low of...

3/21/24

Topics Discussed: Market -FOMC & SPX -The latest breakout -Failed tops -Trading box b/o -Bollinger...

The Latest Breakout

Key Points: 1- The SPX broke out of its sixth bullish formation since the lows yesterday.  It’s nearly...

3/21/24 - 10 Bullish Chart Patterns

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

SPX & FOMC

Key Points: 1- We dissect the two-week periods following FOMC meetings since the October’23 low below.   2–...

Trading Ranges & Momentum

Key Points: 1- Eight trading boxes have been resolved higher eight times since the October low. The SPX...

3/18/24

Topics Covered:     Market -2-week losing streaks -Drawdowns -Failed tops -Key uptrend line -Bollinger...

Still Searching for Downside Follow Through

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown since the October lows remains at -2.6%, with the last one...

Week Ending 3/15/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Weekly losing streaks –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs:...

Testing the Line

Key Points: 1- The major difference between Thursday’s 30 bps decline and Wednesday’s 20 bps dip was...

The Best Three Week Run

Key Points: 1- The S&P 500 has had positive market internals 70% of the time since the October 27...

Strong Response

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has registered three absolute 1% moves (2 up, 1 down) in March at nearly the...

A Winning Streak No One is Talking About

Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after the CPI report for four straight months before...

03/12/24 - 2 Shorts

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Four Straight Successful Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- Before rolling over on Friday, the SPX acquired its latest bullish pattern target of 5,180,...

Week Ending 3/8/24

Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Channels –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...

A Day Later

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged 14 1% gains vs. four 1% losses since the October low.   2-...

AAPL vs. SPX: Most Oversold Ever

Key Points: 1- AAPL ranks 74/75 among the S&P 500’s Technology stocks YTD.   2- The AAPL/SPX relative...

03/07/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

After a 1% Decline

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged four 1% losses since the October’23 lows – one each in December,...

The First Time in 11 Weeks

Key Points: 1- For the first time in eleven weeks, more than 100 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs...

February Performance & March Outlook

Topics Covered: -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – February -Patterns – March -March Seasonality -After...

March 2024

March

Key Points: 1- The SPX and its cumulative advance-decline line both finished at all-time closing highs...

An Extra Day

Key Points: 1- The SPX has outperformed its historical bias in January and February (with one day left)....

Rallies & Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX has gained 24% from the 10/27/23 low to the most recent 2/23/24 high. Along the...

Digestion

Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its mid-point for the second straight day on Monday.  The index only...

Chart Trades - 02/27/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Momentum

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-day RSI hasn’t touched (let alone breach) the 50-zone since late October. ...

Week Ending 2/23/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs:...

Another Pattern Breakout

Key Points: 1- A new bullish pattern was triggered yesterday for the SPX: target 5,180. 2- The big move...

Not Yet...

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s hold yesterday produced a higher low vs. the 2/14 low point, which keeps the...

Watch this Trendline

Key Points: 1– The SPX hasn’t had more than two straight negative breadth sessions since four in...

In Limbo

Key Points: 1– The SPX now has had two weekly declines in the last 16 weeks. The last time we saw...

The Staircase Advance

Key Points: 1– A new potential bullish pattern has been building for the SPX after the bounce back. ...

No Downside Follow Through

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% declines since the 10/27/23 low, and each one has been immediately...

02/14/24 - 4 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Nothing has Changed Yet

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown got to -2.6% at yesterday’s low, which now is the largest peak-to-trough...

SPX & CPI

Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to log a gain two weeks after the CPI report for the fourth straight...

SPX 5,030

Key Points: 1-The SPX hit our 5,030-price target on Friday, making it three straight major successful...

Week Ending 2/9/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...

5 Factors Driving the Market Higher

Key Points: We review each of these below:   1-Good closes 2-Short daily streaks of negative breadth 3-Small...

02/08/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Milestones

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s eventual first push above 5k has a high probability of being revisited if history...

Before and After the Big Daily Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX has had just two 1% declines in the last 71 trading days.  Over that same time,...

New Highs vs. New Lows

Key Points: 1- On 12/14/24, 107 S&P 500 holdings made new 52-week highs, which was the high mark...

Three Straight 1% Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX finished last week with three straight absolute 1% moves, which last happened...

January Performance & February Outlook

Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – January -Patterns – February -February...

Two Potential Bearish Patterns

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had two 1% declines in the last 64 trading days.    2- We’re watching...

FOMC, SPX & the 10-Year Yield

Key Points: 1- Over the last two years, there have been 16 FOMC decisions.  Eight times the SPX was lower...

Another Target Hit

Key Points: 1- The SPX achieved its latest pattern target of 4,920 on Monday, logging its fourth best...

Drawdowns, Breadth & Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown has been -2.4% since the October lows despite plenty of potential...

Week Ending 1/26/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks 2021-24 –Best 20...

Trading Boxes

Key Points: 1- For the SPX, it’s been a series of breakouts, extensions, pauses, breakouts, extensions,...

Another Long Winning Streak

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days. Since the start of 2009, the SPX has had 64 winning...

Three Key Factors

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point 9/11 times going back to 1/8… and...

01/23/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short

Below are four buys and one short idea.   The first three buys are names within the NASDAQ Next Gen 100...

Rallies vs. Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s breadth was just as robust yesterday (72% advancing stocks) as it was on Friday...

Breakouts, Bullish Patterns and 1% Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged nine 1% gains vs. one 1% decline since 10/26/23 – or 57 trading...

Week Ending 1/19/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – 12-week ROC –Best 20 ETFs: New...

January 2024

One Time in 56 Trading Sessions

Key Points: 1- The afternoon up-swings have been gradually happening earlier over the last four days:...

Tug of War

Key Points: 1- The short-term conundrum:  The SPX now has declined in 4/6 sessions and has had negative...

A Notable Change in Daily Breadth

Key Points: 1- Since 12/29/23, there have been 11 trading days. Over that time, the % of advancing S&P...

Week Ending 1/12/24

Topics Covered: Market -Weekly performance -Key weekly moving averages -Patterns -AVWAP      Stats -Daily...

Good Closes Continue

Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day midpoint for:   4/4 days (100%) 19/24 days (79%) 30/38...

CPI, Momentum Divergence and Crypto

Key Points: 1- This is the first time in the last three releases that the SPX’s 14-day RSI is NOT overbought...

01/11/24

Here are four NDX components with bullish charts. For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the...

Japan Focus

Key Points: 1- The SPX followed Monday’s 1.4% gain with a tiny loss yesterday, which is nothing new. ...

The First Bounce of '24

Key Points: 1- The SPX respected the middle line of the Bollinger Bands yesterday – its 20-Day MA.  The...

What the Short-term Work is Telling Us

Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its intra-day mid-point again on Friday, which has become a short-term...

Week Ending - 1/5/24

Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IHF, MSOS –Worst...

Retracement

Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the SPX closed below its 20-Day Moving Average for the first time since 11/2. ...

Indicator Check Up

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/28 high now is -2%, which is still less than each of the...

01/03/24

Here’s the first set of trade ideas for 2024.    We’ll convey these by category as noted below.   For...

2023 Wrap & 2024 Game Plan

Stats: Of the trade ideas we conveyed, 25 went live. 20 buys: 60%-win rate 5 shorts:  80%-win rate Each...

Now vs. August'23

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour 14-period RSI hit its lowest level (41) since the October lows on Tuesday. ...

What's Next

Key Points: 1- The NDX just logged its best year since 1999.  The NDX is +1% since its November’21 high. ...

Snapback

Key Points: 1- We haven’t seen a 1% advance immediately follow at 1% loss in a while. The last time it...

Gut Check

Key Points: 1- We look at yesterday’s reversal vs. the one on 7/27 and how the response needs to be different...

12/20/23 - Final 2023 Report

  Observations Given the continued light run up through yesterday, we held off on issuing any new buy...

No Short-Term Blemishes

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point for nine consecutive days and 13/14. 2-...

SPX's 14-Day RSI > 80

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI closed above 80 yesterday for the first time since 9/1/20.  That...

Seven Straight Up Weeks

Key Points: 1- The SPX is up seven-straight weeks, its sixth streak of at least seven straight weekly...

The Most Impressive Part of this Rally

Key Points: 1- We compare this comeback to the Q4 2019 extension and post COVID 2020 snapback below. 2-The...

Two SPX Targets Hit

Key Points: 1- With the 1.4% spike, the SPX achieved two of our pattern targets, 4,675 and 4,700.  That...

FOMC, New Highs & Winning Streaks

Key Points: 1- So far in 2023, there have been seven FOMC meetings. Two weeks later, the SPX has been...

12/13/23 - Full Report & 3 New Buys

  Observations With the market’s extension showing no cracks yet ahead of the FOMC, many stocks...

Overbought, Bullish Patterns & CPI

Key Points: 1- This is the fourth time in 2023 that the SPX enters CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading...

Big Week

Key Points: 1- The SPX concluded the first full week of December in positive territory, closing above...

Week Ending 12/8/23

Topics Covered:  -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

Now vs. Late July

Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...

12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns

Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...

The Next 1% Day

Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...

A Key Streak & Market Breadth

Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...

Rotating and Retracing

Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....

1% Moves Tell the Story

Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained.  In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...

November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23

Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...

December

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s November gain of 8.9% was among the best Novembers in history and one of the...

November's Two Halves

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...

11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys

Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...

Sellers' Strike

Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...

Hovering

Key Points: 1- In six of the last eight days, the SPX hasn’t moved more than 20 bps; it started this...

11/27/23 - Two Buys

Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...

Week Ending 11/24/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

After the Feast

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...

The Steep Uptrend Line

Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low.  We...