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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- In 2022, the SPX was LOWER two weeks after the CPI report 8/12 times. 2- Many times,...
Last Licks
The Bounce Continues
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLRE Real Estate 5- AMZN 6-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s small bearish pattern we’ve been watching was negated yesterday. Two small...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains in the same trading range it’s been in for the last month, which began...
Last Licks
Pre-Powell Reversal
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLV Healthcare 5- PJP Drugs 6-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- From a price action perspective, the SPX has a chance to do something it hasn’t accomplished...
PostScript
Week Ending 1/6/2023
Topics Covered: 1- SPX Weekly Streaks 2- Breadth 3- MDY Mid Caps 4- XLC Communication Services 5- PKW...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The US Dollar’s long-term chart has suggested the current price level was a likely spot...
Breaking Out
Rangebound... for Now
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1-SPX: consecutive down years 2-SPX: Patterns 3-SPX: 20 Day...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Key Points: 1-While the SPX has remained quiet, 16 key ETFs we track made new 20-Day Highs yesterday....
Last Licks
Big Moves Outside of SPX
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- SIL Silver...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Key Points: 1-Tracking the frequency of large moves gives us important clues about the market’s trading...
Last Licks
Slow Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- META 6-...
Morning Trends
New Year, Same Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX has logged successive down years only TWICE since the early 1940s (’73-’74 and...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Key Points Two overriding themes were prevalent in 2022 from a technical viewpoint: 1-The traditional...
Last Licks
Bad Start, Good Bounce
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLV Healthcare, XLE Energy 5-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The most successful bearish patterns in ’22 have taken shape soon after the SPX has come...
Last Licks
Oversold Bounce
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX 1% gains 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLV Healthcare 5- XLRE Real...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Four-day declines happening after preceding big drawdowns led to the best long set-ups...
Morning Trends
Morning Trends: AAPL Key Points: 1- From its late November high, AAPL now is -14%, which makes it...
Last Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discretionary 5-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its seventh two-week -5% decline of the year and the first in three...
PostScript
Week Ending 12/16/22
Topics Covered: 1- SPX -5% over 2-wks study 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLE Energy and XLY Consumer Discretionary 5-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Whatever today’s result is… it will have repercussions from a pattern perspective. ...
Last Licks
The Real Reaction
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- S&P...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Key Points: 1- Back and forth movement has defined the market action more than anything else going back...
Last Licks
Flat
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- New...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- This is the first time in 2022 that an FOMC rate decision followed a CPI report the very...
Breaking Out
SPX 4,100
In tonight’s video, we’re reviewing: 1-SPX’s -3% weeks in ‘22 2-SPX’s -3% weeks per year 3-Performance...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Even though the SPX tacked on 350 points from the close on 11/09 to its recent high on...
Last Licks
Big Moves before the Big Number
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- VIX +9%, SPX +1% on same day 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Since the day after Thanksgiving, the SPX is down 8/10 days, which turned a potential...
PostScript
Week Ending 12/09/22
Topics Covered: 1- SPX -3% weeks study 2- Breadth 3- DJIA 4- XLE Energy and XLRE Real Estate 5- IWO Small...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– We have two full trading days left before the CPI report, and the SPX once again...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– The SPX now has endured five-day declines six times in 2022. Of the prior five,...
Last Licks
No Bounce
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLV Healthcare 5- Healthcare...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– The SPX just logged its second straight 1% decline for the 13th time this year. 2–...
Breaking Out
Two Tough Days
Topics Reviewed in Tonight’s Video: 1-SPX’s two straight 1% declines 2-Now vs. prior comeback attempts 3-Market...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– In our Morning Trends piece from 11/25, “All Eyes on Mid-December,” we discussed...
Last Licks
Second Straight Big Monday Decline
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance2- Patterns3- Breadth4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr and XLF Financials5-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– A simple and instructive way to track strength and weakness is to view 10 significant...
PostScript
Week Ending 12/02/22
Topics Covered: 1- SPX’s current comeback vs. others since 20092- Breadth3- NDX4- XLP Consumer Staples5-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– The market has done two things rather well in recent weeks: capitalize on important...
Last Licks
Slow Start… for Some
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLP Consumer Discretionary, XRT Retail, ZROZ...
PostScript
After Two Straight +5% Months
Key Points 1-In today’s piece, we look at what two straight 5% months means going forward, December performance...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 2.2% November advance is right in line with past Novembers that have...
Breaking Out
One More Day
In tonight’s video, we’re reviewing Seasonality, Big Daily Moves, SPX Patterns, Breadth, NDX, XLU, XLK,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI indicator just grazed the 60-area for the third time this year....
Last Licks
Another 1% Decline
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLP Consumer Staples, XLV Healthcare, XLI Industrials,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Just 4/10 of the SPX’s biggest names are up YTD (BRKB, UNH, JNJ and XOM). 7/10 of the...
PostScript
Week Ending 11/25/22
Topics Covered: SPX, Seasonality, Breadth, DJIA, Sector ETFs above their August Highs, XLV, MTUM, XME,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Key Points: 1- The final CPI report of the year will be released on Tuesday, 12/13, and the last FOMC...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Since 10/13, which now spans 28 trading days, the SPX has seen an equal number of advances...
Breaking Out
Big Moves are Back
Topics discussed in today’s video are the SPX’s performance, Breadth, Patterns, XLK, XLI, XLP,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Like the SPX, the VIX has experienced multi-week swings various times this year. The...
Last Licks
SPX Holds Again
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLU, XLP, XLV, OIH, KIE, PBJ, MGPI, PEP, Lagging...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-As referenced yesterday, Thanksgiving Week historically has had a positive bias, but in...
PostScript
Week Ending 11/18/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s weekly moves smaller than +/-1%, Thanksgiving Week performance, Breadth, IWC, XLY,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- So far in 2022, the SPX has logged four weekly declines that did NOT undercut the prior...
Last Licks
Down but Not Out
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLK, AAPL, MSFT, biggest moves from the lows...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- At some point, the SPX’s steep uptrend will be challenged, which perhaps, is happening...
Last Licks
Quietly Testing Important Levels
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLE, VEU (world, ex-US), TLT, ZROZ, ARKK, MSOS,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The NDX was up 1.5% yesterday, having stayed above its breakout zone now for three straight...
Breaking Out
Market Update 11/15/22
Topics discussed into today’s video include: SPX’s +5% weeks now vs. 2009, Breadth, Patterns now...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-In 2009, the SPX’s momentum materially shifted after logging that fourth 5% week. This...
Last Licks
Breather
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s performance, patterns, breadth, XLC, XLY, overbought ETFs, ETFs making new 50-Day...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX just logged its third week of at least +4% gains in a four-week time frame. Since...
PostScript
Week Ending 11/11/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s +5% weeks and clusters of +4% weeks, Breadth, XLV, MTUM, GDX, ETSY, NOW, EWN (Netherlands),...
Morning Trends
Two Critical Days
Key Points: 1- Combined, the SPX’s total moves of 10/13 and 11/10 = +11.1% or 83% of the total +13.3%...
Read MoreLast Licks
Green
Topics Reviewed: SPX gains (and losses) of at least 4% since 1970, patterns, breadth, best ETFs since...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX has fallen on the day of the CPI report 7/10 times in 2022 through last month. 2-...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX just logged its 10th three-day winning streak of 2022. The index was lower two...
Last Licks
Back & Forth
Topics Reviewed: SPX, Patterns, Breadth, XLB, Bitcoin, GDX, SIL, ROBO, ETFs making new 52-wk highs and...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged 57 gains of at least 1% in 2022. In 2017, it had FOUR 1% gains...
Last Licks
Light Upswing Continues
Topics Reviewed: SPX, best daily ETFs, Breadth, XLU, SMH, GLD, JETS, IBB, Relative Volume 1-Performance The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX starts the week with no live chart patterns. Potential bullish and bearish versions...
PostScript
Week Ending 11/4/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s 3% weekly declines in 2022, NDX, XLE, XLC, PSP, TAN, DAR, ZBH, TUR, ZROZ, SOYB,...
Breaking Out
Market Update 11/3/22
Topics Reviewed in Today’s Video SPX’s +8% months – now vs. 1974, SPX’s consecutive...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s rollover negated each of the bullish patterns we’ve been referencing. 2- It’s...
Last Licks
Reversal
Topics Reviewed: SPX’s broken bullish patterns, SPYG, XLC, US Dollar (UUP), 10-Year Yield, GDX,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- After FOMC decisions in 2022, SPX has been higher two weeks 4/6 times. 2- The index was...
Last Licks
Last Licks: Slow Start
Topics Reviewed: SPX, Patterns, Breadth, RSP, XLI, FDN, QQQ, IGV, XLC, ZROZ, EWW, ILF, GDX and ETF Relative...
PostScript
After an 8% Monthly Gain
Key Points 1-In today’s piece, we look at what October’s 8% gain means from various perspectives. The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- With one trading day left in October, the SPX suddenly has three bullish chart patterns...
PostScript
Week Ending 10/28/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s back-to-back weekly 4% gains since 1970, DJIA, XLI, IWO, IWP, ARKK, CDAY, TMO,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two bullish patterns will be under pressure today, as a convincing close below...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- While the wiggle room has shrunk, with the SPX finishing above 3,800 again yesterday,...
Last Licks
Red & Green
Topics Reviewed: SPX, RSP, Patterns, Breadth, XLC, UUP, OIH, TAN, SIL, UGA, AAPL, AMZN, XOM, CVX,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- With the SPX pushing through 3,800 yesterday, two bullish patterns were triggered, with...
Breaking Out
Market Update 10/25/22
Topics Discussed in Today’s Video: SPX’s pattern breakouts, key resistance, comparing this...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX is very close to triggering a five-week bottoming formation. A rejection of SPX...
Last Licks
SPX 3,800
Topics Reviewed: SPX, Patterns, Breadth, XLV, OIH, UGA, 20-Day highs, JO, UNG, Relative Volume, FXI,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX just notched its tenth straight weekly move of at least 1% for only the tenth...
PostScript
Week Ending 10/21/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s +4% weekly moves, QQQ, XLE, MTUM, XBI, ON, KMX, EIDO, ZROZ, URA & US...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX has yet to touch the Upper Bollinger Band (UBB) on this rebound. It’s only been...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX has witnessed some incredible moves over the last four weeks; however, the index...
Last Licks
Mini Streak Over; New SPX Pattern
Topics Reviewed: SPX, Patterns, Breadth, XLE, UUP, IGE, SMH, XBI, JETS, Relative Volume 1-Performance The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-After yesterday, the SPX now has logged two straight gains for just the fourth time since...
Breaking Out
Market Update 10/18/22
Topics Discussed in Today’s Video: SPX pattern update, past 2022 rallies, 9-wk streak of +/-1%...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX just logged it third straight +/-2.4% move for the second time this year. This...
Last Licks
Gap & Hold
Topics Reviewed: SPX, Patterns, Breadth, XLY, UUP, OIH, XOP, ETFs making new lows, TUR, Relative Volume 1-Performance The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-With the SPX still above last week’s low, the small potential bottoming formation we first...
PostScript
Week Ending 10/14/22
Topics Covered: SPX’s 9 straight +/-1% weekly moves, NDX, XLV, IWP SMH, CPB, MPWR, TUR, ZROZ, SLV,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: Below we review: What happened. What changed. What remains the same. And.. What needs to...
Last Licks
Brief Market Update
SPX The opening sell off put the SPX within 16 handles of the 3,475 downside target. Apparently, that...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX has endured TWO six-day losing streaks in the last three weeks. The last time...
Breaking Out
Pre-CPI Calm (Video)
Topics Discussed in Today’s Video: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SLYG, XLE, XLU, TAN,...
Last Licks
Pre-CPI Calm
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SLYG, XLE, XLU, TAN, XLF, SIL, Relative Volume 1-Performance As...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1 – In 2022, the index has logged four prior five-day losing streaks. The index was...
Last Licks
Still Searching for a Bid
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SLYV, XLRE, New 52-week lows, SMH, MSOS, Relative...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX has followed long losing streaks with strong short-term snapbacks each time in...
Last Licks
Four Straight Losses... Again
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, NDX, XLE, MSOS, KWEB, BAL, New Lows and Laggards,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Prior to last week, there were only two times in 2022 that the SPX followed a 2.5% gain...
PostScript
Week Ending 10/7/22
Topics Covered: SPX performance, breadth, MDY, XLE, DVY, KIE, WYNN, SEDG, VEU, 10-Year Yield, Crude Oil,...
Breaking Out
Chart Rundown
Topics Discussed in order: 10 Year Yield (2) US Dollar (2) 10 Year Yield, USD & SPX SPX (8) SPX &...
Last Licks
Quiet Fade, but Not in Everything
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SPYV, XLE, Top Performers since 9/26, OIH,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1 – A change in market character always begins in the short-term work. 2 – For most...
Last Licks
Battling After the Surge
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, XLE, CORN, OIH, TAN, SMH, UUP, Relative Volume 1-Performance The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-Going back to 1970, the SPX notched consecutive +2.5% advance 12 prior times. 2-The last...
Last Licks
Follow Through... Found
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, XLF, Two-Day Leaders, UUP, ARKK, USO, SIL, Relative...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The last time we saw a gain the day after a 2% advance was late July (7/27-28), as the...
Breaking Out
Round Two (Video)
In today’s video, we review tonight’s Last Licks’ report, “Round Two,”...
Last Licks
Round Two
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, XLE, XLU, XLY, Leaders, EWZ, UUP, SLV, UNG Relative...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s -9.3% loss was the 17th monthly decline of at least -9% since 1970. The...
PostScript
September and Q3
Topics Covered: Full September and 3Q review Plus: SPX: consecutive monthly losses, monthly and quarterly...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The prior four times the SPX broke below a previous low in 2022, the SPX fell an additional...
Breaking Out
Not Yet... (Video)
Last Licks
Not Yet...
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SPYV, XLE, XEL, PBW, XRT, UUP & SPX, PALL....
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1– 2% gains that happened AFTER preceding big downturns in 2022 have yielded the BEST...
Last Licks
Bounce
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, MDYG, Breadth, Sector ETFs, UUP, TNX, GDX, SIL, today’s...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- The SPX is down six straight days. Since 1990, there were 24 prior losing streaks of...
Last Licks
6 Straight Losses
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, vs. 200-Day MA, Patterns, Breadth, SPYG, MDYG, XLE, XLU, ZROZ, XBI,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1 – The SPX is NEAR major support after a sizable, unceasing downturn. 2- There were...
Last Licks
SPX Holds Lows, While Many Others Fail
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SLYV, XLRE, UUP, FXB, KWEB, JO, GXG, Relative Volume 1-Performance The...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Last week, the SPX logged its fourth weekly decline of at least -3% in the last five weeks. ...
PostScript
Week Ending 9/23/22
Topics Covered: SPX, DJIA, XLE, VTI, GIS, APA, EWZ, IGOV, URA, UUP, Bitcoin, WEAT, MSOS, Breadth 5-Day...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-SPX: Being oversold in a downtrend is a MUCH different scenario vs. being oversold in an...
Morning Trends
Key Points 1-The SPX logged its 2nd straight 1% decline yesterday. The last time it experienced a -1%...
Last Licks
Red Reaction
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SPYG, XLC, EWZ, ZROZ, SLV, UUP, PEJ, JETS, EEM,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX currently is trading in its fifth multi-week downward sloping trading channel in...
Last Licks
Pre-FOMC Downside Pressure
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, MDYG, XLK, AAPL, WEAT, CORN, PSP, CUT, EWD, Relative...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Both of the SPX’s bearish patterns remain “alive,” but the immediate downside follow-through...
Last Licks
Treading Water
Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, MDY, XLRE, PALL, EWZ, IYT, MSOS, UGA, SOCL, XLC,...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1- Last week, the SPX endured its third 3% weekly loss in the last four weeks for the first...
Morning Trends
Key Points: 1-The SPX has had two 1% declines so far this week. The index only has logged THREE or more...
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