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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
PostScript
Week Ending 12/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Now vs. Late July
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...
Read MoreChart Trades
12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns
Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next 1% Day
Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...
Read MoreOpening Look
A Key Streak & Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...
Read MoreOpening Look
Rotating and Retracing
Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....
Read MoreOpening Look
1% Moves Tell the Story
Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained. In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...
Read MorePostScript
November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23
Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...
Read MoreOpening Look
November's Two Halves
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...
Read MoreChart Trades
11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys
Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...
Read MoreOpening Look
Sellers' Strike
Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...
Read MoreChart Trades
11/27/23 - Two Buys
Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 11/24/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
After the Feast
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Steep Uptrend Line
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low. We...
Read MoreOpening Look
Round Trip
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
Large Three-Week Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks. Prior three-week advances of at least...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 11/17/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next Patterns
Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Encore
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move...
Read MoreOpening Look
1% Gains & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days. For some context, the...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 11/10/23
Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX,...
Read MoreOpening Look
Searching for Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns...
Read MoreOpening Look
Consolidating with Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight...
Read MoreChart Trades
A New CappThesis Report
What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts. How is...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next 5%
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Need for Digestion
Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 11/3/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth:...
Read MoreOpening Look
More 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior...
Read MoreOpening Look
Comparing the Rebounds
Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August. The other two looked...
Read MorePostScript
October'23
Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly...
Read MoreChart Trades
October Wrap
Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout...
Read MoreOpening Look
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/27/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Selling Pressure
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns...
Read MoreOpening Look
Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month...
Read MoreChart Trades
One New Short Idea
Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited....
Read MoreOpening Look
SPX & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s...
Read MoreOpening Look
Streaks in 2023
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced...
Read MoreOpening Look
1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week. The last time the index endured at least two...
Read MoreChart Trades
Two Financial Stocks
The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out. The...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/20/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Downside Momentum
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and...
Read MoreOpening Look
Holding Near a Key Zone
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited. Five...
Read MoreOpening Look
Three Key Traits
Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September. All three...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/13/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly...
Read MoreOpening Look
Test Number One (w/Video)
Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD &...
Read MoreOpening Look
Four Straight
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days. Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day...
Read MoreOpening Look
A 3-Day Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August. The three-day...
Read MoreChart Trades
GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS
The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop. That was...
Read MoreOpening Look
Big Two-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/6/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreOpening Look
Support Still Being Tested
Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last...
Read MoreOpening Look
In Search of a Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent...
Read MoreChart Trades
COST, ISRG
COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on...
Read MoreOpening Look
In the Zone
Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring...
Read MoreOpening Look
Separation
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced...
Read MorePostScript
September & Q3'23
Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps...
Read MoreMorning Trends
CappThesis - Year One in the Books
Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide...
Read MoreLast Licks
Small Caps Trying
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Clusters of Big Down Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Starts with Good Closes
Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Some Green
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long Weekly Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/22/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Daily Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Pattern Triggered
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Fed Volatility
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in...
Read MoreLast Licks
Almost Time
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns and New Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
September's Second Half
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/15/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Notes
SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Never Forget
Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2-...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the...
Read MoreLast Licks
All Over the Place
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Familiar Start
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except...
Read MoreMorning Trends
IWM, SPX and RSP
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Breadth
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Snapback
Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Two Thirds of '23 Done
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Well
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns & Indicators
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder....
Read MoreLast Licks
A Winning Streak
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive
Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/25/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action....
Read MoreLast Licks
No Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: Comm Services 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
A Positive Start… for Some
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third straight weekly decline. The last longer weekly streak...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/18/23
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, XME –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Negative Momentum
Key Points: 1- With the SPX closing at its lowest level since June 26th, it breached the first real support...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Patterns & Oversold Stocks Near Support
Key Points: 1- The good news: the continued sell off has pulled the SPX closer to real support zones...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Volatility, Sentiment and the SPX
Key Points: 1- Despite yesterday’s 1% decline, the number of +/-1% SPX daily moves still is small compared...
Read MoreLast Licks
Back to Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
The First Step: Closing Better
Key Points: 1- The recent combination of weak large cap growth and infrequent strong closes has equated...
Read MoreLast Licks
Growth Gets a Bid
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now
Key Points: 1- If rotation is going to continue, then the next real bid should appear in the lagging...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/11/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Measuring the Drawdown
Key Points: 1- A key early theme for August has been a lack of buy interest, and that is best represented...
Read MoreLast Licks
Another Close on the Lows
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a CPI report for three straight months, starting...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Topping Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished below the breakdown zone near 4,530 yesterday, thus, it triggered a three-week...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Weakness Under the Surface
Key Points: 1- Breadth on the index level was poor in the 30-40% range yesterday, but it wasn’t extreme. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Slow August Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Strong… Again
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into July’s last day up nearly 3% for the month, which will be the fifth...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 7/28/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- It doesn’t have to be immediate, but for yesterday to mark a true turning point, we’ll...
Read MoreBreaking Out
New Highs & Negative Reversals
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Performance -SPX intra-day -SPX negative reversal...
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