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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
PostScript

Week Ending 12/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look

Now vs. Late July
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...
Read MoreChart Trades

12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns
Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Next 1% Day
Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...
Read MoreOpening Look

A Key Streak & Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...
Read MoreOpening Look

Rotating and Retracing
Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....
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1% Moves Tell the Story
Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained. In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...
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November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23
Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...
Read MoreOpening Look

November's Two Halves
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...
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11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys
Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...
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Sellers' Strike
Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...
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11/27/23 - Two Buys
Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...
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Week Ending 11/24/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look

After the Feast
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...
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The Steep Uptrend Line
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low. We...
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Round Trip
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year. ...
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Large Three-Week Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks. Prior three-week advances of at least...
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Week Ending 11/17/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Next Patterns
Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Encore
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move...
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1% Gains & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days. For some context, the...
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Week Ending 11/10/23
Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX,...
Read MoreOpening Look

Searching for Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns...
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Consolidating with Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight...
Read MoreChart Trades

A New CappThesis Report
What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts. How is...
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The Next 5%
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From...
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The Need for Digestion
Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six...
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Week Ending 11/3/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth:...
Read MoreOpening Look

More 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior...
Read MoreOpening Look

Comparing the Rebounds
Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August. The other two looked...
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October'23
Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly...
Read MoreChart Trades

October Wrap
Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout...
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Another Attempt
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. ...
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Week Ending 10/27/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look

Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for...
Read MoreBreaking Out

Selling Pressure
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns...
Read MoreOpening Look

Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month...
Read MoreChart Trades

One New Short Idea
Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited....
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SPX & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s...
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Streaks in 2023
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced...
Read MoreOpening Look

1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week. The last time the index endured at least two...
Read MoreChart Trades

Two Financial Stocks
The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out. The...
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Week Ending 10/20/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look

Downside Momentum
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and...
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Holding Near a Key Zone
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited. Five...
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Three Key Traits
Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September. All three...
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Week Ending 10/13/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly...
Read MoreOpening Look

Test Number One (w/Video)
Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD &...
Read MoreOpening Look

Four Straight
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days. Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day...
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A 3-Day Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August. The three-day...
Read MoreChart Trades

GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS
The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop. That was...
Read MoreOpening Look

Big Two-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have...
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Week Ending 10/6/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreOpening Look

Support Still Being Tested
Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last...
Read MoreOpening Look

In Search of a Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent...
Read MoreChart Trades

COST, ISRG
COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on...
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In the Zone
Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring...
Read MoreOpening Look

Separation
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced...
Read MorePostScript

September & Q3'23
Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps...
Read MoreMorning Trends

CappThesis - Year One in the Books
Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide...
Read MoreLast Licks

Small Caps Trying
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Clusters of Big Down Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. ...
Read MoreLast Licks

Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

It Starts with Good Closes
Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a...
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Some Green
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Long Weekly Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. ...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 9/22/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Big Daily Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years,...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Bearish Pattern Triggered
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 –...
Read MoreLast Licks

Fed Volatility
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in...
Read MoreLast Licks

Almost Time
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Patterns and New Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends

September's Second Half
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. ...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 9/15/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Market Notes
SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Never Forget
Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2-...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 9/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the...
Read MoreLast Licks

All Over the Place
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Familiar Start
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except...
Read MoreMorning Trends

IWM, SPX and RSP
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like...
Read MoreLast Licks

Bad Breadth
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends

After the Snapback
Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreLast Licks

Two Thirds of '23 Done
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Finishing Well
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set...
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Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times,...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Patterns & Indicators
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder....
Read MoreLast Licks

A Winning Streak
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive
Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 8/25/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Another Attempt
Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action....
Read MoreLast Licks

No Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: Comm Services 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks

A Positive Start… for Some
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends

The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third straight weekly decline. The last longer weekly streak...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 8/18/23
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, XME –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Negative Momentum
Key Points: 1- With the SPX closing at its lowest level since June 26th, it breached the first real support...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Bearish Patterns & Oversold Stocks Near Support
Key Points: 1- The good news: the continued sell off has pulled the SPX closer to real support zones...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Volatility, Sentiment and the SPX
Key Points: 1- Despite yesterday’s 1% decline, the number of +/-1% SPX daily moves still is small compared...
Read MoreLast Licks

Back to Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends

The First Step: Closing Better
Key Points: 1- The recent combination of weak large cap growth and infrequent strong closes has equated...
Read MoreLast Licks

Growth Gets a Bid
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends

What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now
Key Points: 1- If rotation is going to continue, then the next real bid should appear in the lagging...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 8/11/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Measuring the Drawdown
Key Points: 1- A key early theme for August has been a lack of buy interest, and that is best represented...
Read MoreLast Licks

Another Close on the Lows
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a CPI report for three straight months, starting...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Topping Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished below the breakdown zone near 4,530 yesterday, thus, it triggered a three-week...
Read MoreLast Licks

Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Weakness Under the Surface
Key Points: 1- Breadth on the index level was poor in the 30-40% range yesterday, but it wasn’t extreme. ...
Read MoreLast Licks

Slow August Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends

Finishing Strong… Again
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into July’s last day up nearly 3% for the month, which will be the fifth...
Read MorePostScript

Week Ending 7/28/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends

After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- It doesn’t have to be immediate, but for yesterday to mark a true turning point, we’ll...
Read MoreBreaking Out

New Highs & Negative Reversals
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Performance -SPX intra-day -SPX negative reversal...
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