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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Opening Look
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Sub-par Closes
Key Points: 1- Yesterday marked the SPX’s eighth close below its intra-day mid-point in the last 10 trading...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Clusters of 1% Moves
1% Moves With the second 1% gain of July on Monday, the SPX has notched at least two 1% advances is...
Read MoreOpening Look
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No Summer Doldrums Yet
Topics Covered: Market -1% moves -Clusters of big days -Live Patterns -Potential Patterns -AVWAP ...
Read MoreChart Trades
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7/23/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Response
Key Points: 1- Seasonality: On average, the DJIA has sold off soon after the month’s second half has...
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 7/22/24
Key Points: 1- Seasonality: On average, the DJIA has sold off soon after the month’s second half has...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Monster Rotation Continues
Key Points: 1- Rotation continued to be the dominant theme, and this has resulted in eight straight days...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Historic Movement
Key Points: -Among other stats, here’s this: IWM’s 14-day RSI now is at 80. The indicator only has...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Opening Look & Chart Trades
OPENING LOOK Comparing the Rallies From the April low to yesterday’s intra-day high, the SPX has gained...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Comparing the Rallies
Key Points: 1- From the April low to yesterday’s intra-day high, the SPX has gained +14.6% over 58 trading...
Read MoreChart Trades
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7/16/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Breadth: New All-Time Highs
Key Points: 1- Six S&P 500 sectors gained at least 2% last week, which prompted the index’s advance-decline...
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 7/15/24
Key Points: 1- Six S&P 500 sectors gained at least 2% last week, which prompted the index’s advance-decline...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 7/12/24
Chart of the Week – Real Rotation The rotation out of Tech and into everything else was widely...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Tech Lags, Everything Else Rallies
Key Points: 1-The S&P 500 now has had positive breadth for eight straight sessions on days in which...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Bullish Stats
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 1% gain ended the 22-trading day drought without one. That was the longest...
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Six Straight Gains
Six Straight Gains Officially, the SPX notched its sixth straight gain yesterday, which started on...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Six in a Row
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up six days in a row. Since the October’23 low point, this now is the index’s...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Eighth Pattern Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX hit its eighth bullish pattern last week at 5,555. We’re left with one live...
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 7/8/24
Key Points: 1- The SPX hit its eighth bullish pattern last week at 5,555. We’re left with one live bullish...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 7/5/24
Chart of the Week – The Strongest Stocks Buying only the biggest stocks may not sound appealing...
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The Strongest Stocks
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished about 80 bps shy of achieving the latest bullish pennant objective of...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Real Trend
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s last 1% advance occurred on 6/5, which was 17 days ago. This now is the longest...
Read MoreChart Trades
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7/2/24 - 2 buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red ...
Read MoreRoadmap
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July'24 & Q3
Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -July Seasonality -After a Strong 1st...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 6/28/24
Chart of the Week – 1% Moves So far in June, the SPX has logged just a single 1% advance...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Almost Halftime
Key Points: 1- The SPX is set to log its seventh monthly gain in the last eight as June concludes. It...
Read MoreOpening Look
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June'24 vs. July'23
Key Points: 1- So far in June, the SPX has logged just a single 1% advance (6/5) and zero 1% declines....
Read MoreOpening Look
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Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen the same kind of mini pattern play out throughout June for the SPX: A big...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Rotation Revisited
Key Points: 1- As late as 3:00 on Monday, 80% of the SPX’s stocks were up. The late selloff knocked...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/25/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Top of the Channels
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 8/9 weeks and is testing the upper lines of TWO upward sloping channels....
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 6/24/24 - Top of the Channels
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 8/9 weeks and is testing the upper lines of TWO upward sloping channels....
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 6/21/24
Chart of the Week – Seventh SPX Upside Target Hit With all the talk centered on the (formerly)...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Seventh SPX Upside Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX hit our latest target of 5,495 yesterday, making it the seventh successful bullish...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/21/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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XLC vs. XLK
Topics Covered: Market -Patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Breadth Divergences Grow
Breadth Divergences Grow As we know, the biggest growth names have separated themselves from the smaller...
Read MoreOpening Look
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This Hasn't Happened since September 2020
Key Points: 1- The XLK Tech ETF ended yesterday with a 14-day RSI reading of 80, the highest since 9/1/20. ...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/18/24 - 2 buys, 1 short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Breadth Divergences Grow
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels....
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 6/17/24
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels....
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 6/14/24
Chart of the Week – AAPL As we know, AAPL blasted back to new highs with one of its biggest two-day...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Fear of New Highs
Key Points: 1- The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index hit the Fear Zone yesterday as the SPX made a...
Read MoreOpening Look
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SPX: Three Live Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- With Wednesday’s opening gap and hold, the latest pattern breakout was confirmed. The...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Double Jeopardy
Key Points: 1- The SPX sits at a new-all time high with a 14-day RSI of 67 ahead of today’s trading session....
Read MoreCappNotes
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A Recent Trade Idea
ENPH is a risky and longer-term play. It’s had an extremely volatile downfall and subsequent comeback...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/11/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 6/10/24
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest...
Read MoreOpening Look
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New Highs vs. Divergences
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 6/7/24
Chart of the Week – The SPX’s Latest Bullish Pattern The S&P 500 continues to extend...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Chart Rundown
Topics Covered: Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/7/24 - 2 buys, 1 short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Winning Streaks, 1% Gains & Tech
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days, which is the NINTH winning streak of at least four...
Read MoreOpening Look
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SPX Holding while Others Move
Key Points: 1- So far, things have played out in the short-term work as we’d expect after the last snapback. ...
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Losing Streaks & Drawdowns
Short Losing Streaks The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days in a while. Specifically,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Short Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days since the six-day downturn from...
Read MoreChart Trades
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6/4/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/31/24
Chart of the Week The following commentary appeared in Wednesday morning’s Opening Look piece. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Spotted ➡ Rotation
Key Points: 1- Before yesterday, the last time the XLK lost 2% was on 4/30/24. The SPX had 11% advancing...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Last Three Days
Key Points: 1- There only have been three trading days since last Thursday’s bearish engulfing pattern,...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Market's Foundation
Key Points: 1- S&P 500 breadth has been sub-par recently, with negative internals now in 5/6, 6/8...
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Four SPX Charts
SPX Weekly Track If it felt like a back-and-forth week with ultimately no net movement in front of a...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Five Week Win Streaks
Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second...
Read MoreRoadmap
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Week of 5/28/24
Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/24/24
Chart of the Week – Bearish Engulfing Patterns The SPX logged a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday...
Read MoreOpening Look
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After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- Given that the prior few days of price action all were tiny in comparison, the SPX’s reversal...
Read MoreChart Trades
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5/24/24 - 3 Buys, 2 Shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Now vs. Nov'23
Key Points: 1- There are similarities between the current comeback and November’23. See below. 2- A...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Five Crypto Charts
Ethereum Let’s start with Ethereum’s massive 20% spike. As we know, speculation that an ETF is getting...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- Ethereum and Bitcoin’s huge moves have brought them closer to major pattern breakout attempts....
Read MoreOpening Look
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Higher Highs & Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX has a four-week gain of 6.77%. Since June’2020, it’s the 13th four-week gain...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/17/24
Chart of the Week – Successful Bullish Patterns The S&P 500 hit its sixth bullish pattern...
Read MoreOpening Look
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CPI & Indicator Check Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading of 64. The last seven times the SPX...
Read MoreCappNotes
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SPX, ARKK & NASDAQ Breadth
SPX Still Calm The SPX is coming off its best three-day and three-week advance of 2024, both of which...
Read MoreOpening Look
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SPX Still Calm
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged it second negligible loss in the last four trading days. If bullish pattern...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Best Three Weeks of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Best Three Weeks of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/10/24
Chart of the Week – Good Closes 🟢The SPX just closed above its intra-day mid-point for the 10th...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Potential Bullish Pattern
Key Points: 1- The SPX is close to triggering another bullish pattern. There are currently two live bullish...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Good Closes are Back
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point 10/13 trading sessions (77% of the time)....
Read MoreChart Trades
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5/9/24 - Eight Bullish Bank Charts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Chart Rundown
Topics Covered: Key Charts -MAGS vs. SPX -KRE Regional banks -XLE Energy -XLU Utilities -XLY Cons Discretionary...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Best 3-Day Run… of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its second straight 1% gain yesterday – for the third time since the October...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Three Important Next Steps
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its first 1% gain of May on Friday, which makes it four +/-1% moves in...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 5/3/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: XBI, SOCL –Worst...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/3/24
Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Trading Boxes, Rallies and Failed Tops
Key Points: 1- Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range leads to one of two things...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Pattern Battle Continues
Key Points: 1- The SPX had seven +/-1% moves in April, the most since October. From January 2022 through...
Read MorePostScript
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April'24 Performance & May Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Key Monthly Stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -After five straight up months end -May...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Choose Your Bias
Key Points: 1- The SPX continues to trace out potential bullish and bearish patterns. See a lot more...
Read MoreCappNotes
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Key Spot, Key Week
SPX The SPX capped off last week’s comeback with its second 1% gain of the week. Overall, we’ve seen...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Key Spot, Key Week
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% gains last week. There were at least two 1% gains during a calendar...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 4/26/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, KWEB –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another Good Close
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its mid-point four straight days. This has been an about-face...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The Nikkei 225 fell 1% last evening, thus, it failed to recapture its pattern breakdown...
Read MoreChart Trades
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4/25/24 - 2 buys, 1 short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Now vs. August'23
Key Points: 1- SPX had just a single 1% advance in 28 trading sessions before yesterday. We don’t need...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Judging the Bounce
Key Points: 1- If we get some upside follow through, a MACD buy signal could be triggered soon. We last...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Field Holds
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today with two key streaks: It has logged six straight down days but...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 4/19/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: JETS, KRE –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
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New 52-Week Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s number of new highs has been shrinking, and the number of new lows has been...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Bearish Streaks
Key Points: 1- The SPX has EIGHT different streaks in play after yesterday, and they are all bearish....
Read MoreChart Trades
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4/17/24 - 3 buys, 2 shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
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The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a three-day losing streak. The only streak longer than three since the...
Read MoreOpening Look
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Another First
Key Points: 1-The SPX followed Friday’s 1.5% decline with a 1.2% loss on Monday – the first back-to-back...
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A Few Changes
Key Points: 1- From the point at which the SPX punctured its five-month uptrend line, it is down -2.1%. ...
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Week Ending 4/12/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: PALL, SIL –Worst...
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Uptrend Lines vs. Uptrends
Key Points: 1- The SPX breached its uptrend line from the October low last week, but it remains in a...
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Drawdowns, New High/Lows and Breadth
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current drawdown is -2.5%. That’s among the largest multi-day pullbacks since...
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CPI, SPX and Rates
Key Points: 1- Since the October’23 low, we’ve had five CPI reports. The SPX has been higher two weeks...
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Three Important Indicators
Key Points: 1- With the SPX still below the key uptrend line, there is a risk of it following through...
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What REALLY Changed?
Key Points: 1- The SPX followed last Thursday’s 1% loss with a 1% gain – this has happened five straight...
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March / Q1 Performance & April / Q2 Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Five straight up months -Patterns – March -Patterns...
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Two More Days
Key Points: 1- SPY ended yesterday below the VWAP line anchored to last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting for...
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The Most Bullish Trait
Key Points: 1- So far, the SPX has logged just three 1% moves in March (2 up and 1 down). This has continued...
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Stock Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- 77% of the S&P 500’s stocks advanced last week, which was the best weekly breadth...
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Week Ending 3/22/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, XHB –Worst...
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The Latest Breakout
Key Points: 1- The SPX broke out of its sixth bullish formation since the lows yesterday. It’s nearly...
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3/21/24 - 10 Bullish Chart Patterns
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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SPX & FOMC
Key Points: 1- We dissect the two-week periods following FOMC meetings since the October’23 low below....
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Trading Ranges & Momentum
Key Points: 1- Eight trading boxes have been resolved higher eight times since the October low. The SPX...
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Still Searching for Downside Follow Through
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown since the October lows remains at -2.6%, with the last one...
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Week Ending 3/15/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Weekly losing streaks –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs:...
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