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Chart Trades

2/14/25 - 3 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
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Respecting Support
Key Points The SPX wasted no time in snapping back from yesterday’s hot inflation numbers, with the index...
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The Market Strength Indicator
Key Points By the slimmest of margins, the S&P 500 scratched out a tiny 3 bps gain on Tuesday. Appropriately,...
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Dissecting the Trading Range
Key Points The S&P 500 scratched and clawed its way to a 0.7% gain on Monday, which was the index’s...
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Key Weekly Support Lines
Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle of its long-term...
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Week of 2/10/25
SPX Weekly Track Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle...
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Stock Chart Rundown
Post-Earnings PLTR With this week’s huge reaction to earnings, PLTR’s 14-week RSI has shot back to 82,...
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A Key Indicator
Key Points For the third straight day, the SPX opened lower, pivoted, rallied, and closed near its intraday...
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Uptrend Traits
Key Points The SPX trended higher all day on Tuesday and closed near its highs on neutral volume. That...
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Turnaround Mondays
Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...
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Another Turnaround Monday
Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...
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February'25
SPX – Key January Stats +2.7% monthly gain -Up 12/20 trading days -Positive breadth 12/20 trading days...
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Key Post Earnings Charts
META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...
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Post Earnings Charts
META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...
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Pick Your Favorite Pattern
Key Points It felt and looked like a FOMC day yesterday – even before 2:00 PM this time – and by 4:00,...
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The Two Wild Days Before FOMC
Key Points The SPX snapped back from Monday’s 1.5% decline and just missed logging a 1% gain. Thus, the...
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The Epic Breadth Shift
Key Points The SPX logged its third 1% loss of January on Monday, and at -1.46%, it was the worst showing...
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Key Charts & Levels
Key Points On Friday afternoon, seeing the SPX close at a new all-time weekly high and followed...
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The Next Phase
Key Points The SPX leveraged the huge spike in the final 15 minutes yesterday to notch its fourth straight...
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1/24/25 - Two Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
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Pausing at New All-Time Highs
Key Points The SPX logged its third straight gain on Wednesday, marginally (and briefly) making a new...
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The Strong Breadth Streak
Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...
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Extreme Positive Internals Continue
Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...
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Another Weekly Reversal
SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held on for its second 1% gain of the...
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Week of 1/21/25
SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held on for its second 1% gain of the...
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Four Straight 70% SPX Breadth Days
Key Point The SPX notched its fourth consecutive trading session with at least 70% of its holdings advancing...
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Battleground
Key Point With the SPX’s bearish breakdown zone being below 5,850 and the bullish breakout zone being...
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RSP’s Positive Reversal
Intra-Day The SPX logged an old-fashioned positive reversal and closed near its highs on strong breadth...
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1/14/25 - 2 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreCappNotes

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns
Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish...
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Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns
SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced...
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Week of 1/13/25
SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced...
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Key Levels & Rally Attempts
Key Point From just about any perspective, it’s clear that the SPX is at a critical technical juncture:...
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Breadth Update
Key Point Through yesterday, 53% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages...
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Judging the Bounce
Key Point Since October’23, the SPX has routinely gotten overbought on the short-term two-hour chart....
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1/7/25 - Two Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

Two Way Volatility in 2025
Key Point Friday marked the SPX’s first 1% gain of 2025, but it was the SIXTH absolute 1% move in the...
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Long Losing Streaks
Key Point The SPX’s five-day decline now is the longest losing streak since six straight from April 12-19,...
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1/3/25 - Two Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

January Charts & Stats
SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days...
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January'25
SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days...
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Grand Finale’24
Thank You First and foremost, thank you ALL for supporting CappThesis in 2024. It was an epic year for...
Read MoreOpening Look

Next Steps
Key Point The SPX snapped back on Friday and finally notched a positive breadth session in December –...
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Indicators, Sentiment & Losing Streaks
Key Point Needless to say, the December performance (of nearly everything aside from MAGS 7) has been...
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Important Post-Fed Charts
Key Point The FOMC’s hawkish cut unleashed one of the harshest declines we’ve seen in 2024. We assess...
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Powell’s Turn
Key Point The SPX has had a very good track record two weeks after Fed meetings in 2024. And the year’s...
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The OTHER Breadth Streak that No One is Talking About
Key Point The SPX’s negative breadth streak now is at 11 straight, but none of the days have been extreme....
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12/17/24 - 2 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red ...
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Week of 12/16/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Negative breadth -RSP, SPX, MAGS, SMH -Weekly losing streaks...
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NVDA - Dec'24
NVDA We cited NVDA as a buy idea in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through...
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3 Buys, NVDA & Market Comments
Topics Discussed Buy the dip in an uptrend SRE Bullish Pattern Breakouts ISRG, REG Key Charts -Sector...
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SPX vs. RSP
Key Point: The RSP Equal Weight ETF has lost ground in 6 of the last 8 days and has dropped to the lower...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Bearish Breadth Streak
Key Points: We’re taking a close look at the current 6-day negative breadth streak vs. the 6-day streak...
Read MoreOpening Look

SPX 6,099.97
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97...
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Week of 12/9/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97...
Read MoreOpening Look

ARKK, JETS and Bitcoin
Key Points: Given the SPX’s small move yesterday, we’re focusing on other areas today in the Key...
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12/6/24 - 2 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look

Milestones
Key Points: The SPX is close to 6,100 and Bitcoin is above 100k. We’re taking a close look across various...
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Boring, Not Bearish
Key Point: By one measurement (the 2-day Average True Range), the SPX has just logged its lowest two-day...
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Our Market Stance
Key Point: Consistently having live bullish patterns and targets in play tells us that we’re in an uptrend. ...
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12/3/24 - 2 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreRoadmap

December'24
Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies...
Read MoreOpening Look

Happy Thanksgiving
Key Point: Two studies below depict the historical positive bias of the days right before and after Thanksgiving...
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The Smallest 6-Day Winning Streak
Key Point: The SPX logged its sixth straight gain yesterday, with each daily advance being less than...
Read MoreCappNotes

Trading Channels
After 2% Weekly Declines The SPX snapped back by 1.7% last week, again showing buyers’ continued willingness...
Read MoreOpening Look

Channel Surfing
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel...
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Week of 11/25/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel...
Read MoreOpening Look

Best Breadth in Two Weeks
Key Point; Yesterday was one of the strongest sessions we’ve had in a while, with 87% of the S&P...
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Many Bullish Charts
Many Bullish Charts Even the most consistent trends are destined to be broken – no matter how short or...
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NVDA Chart Preview
Earnings NVDA – First, let’s review the two pattern breakouts that we cited in a Chart Trades...
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3 Buys, NVDA & Market
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red ...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Most Likely Path
Key Point Yesterday on X, I showed two conflicting SPX charts, asking people which path was more likely...
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Week of 11/18/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...
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3 Chart Trades
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
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The Pause Continues
Key Point In Tuesday’s piece, “Short-term Stretched,” we reviewed a few charts that suggested the market...
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4 Buys & Market Commentary
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

IGV Software Focus
Key Points: We’re focusing on the IGV Software ETF today. It’s been an obvious leader and now is short-term...
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Short-term Stretched
Key Point: Given that the SPX is coming off the best weekly gain in over a year, it’s not outlandish...
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Week of 11/11/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Four percent weekly gains -Long-term trading channel -SPX vs....
Read MoreOpening Look

Indicator Checkup
Key Points: Not every indicator is overbought now, but many are near the high-end of their respective...
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Another Bullish Pattern Target Achieved
Key Points: 1- With the SPX hitting the 5,900-target on Wednesday, it’s now the TENTH successful bullish...
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11/7/24 - 3 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Opening Gap
Key Points: 1- The early reaction to President Trump’s huge win last night is creating big gaps in...
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Election Day Charts
Key Points: Today we’re looking at 10 election-related charts – none of which are related to polls, prediction...
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Pre-Election Chart Setups
Key Points: 1- Since the breakout to new highs in September, the SPX has formed two trading boxes. Box...
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November'24
SPX – Key Monthly Stats – October -1.0% monthly loss -Down 12/23 trading days -Negative...
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November’24
Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies...
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A Trend that Needs to Right Itself
Key Points: 1- Over the last eight trading days, the SPX has had negative breadth six times. We break...
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The Last 29 Days
Yesterday’s price action did very little to change the index’s technical complexion. In fact, we could...
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One of the Quietest Months in 3 Years
Key Points: 1- With just two 1% absolute moves in October, it’s the second lowest monthly total of 2024...
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Since the Last Breakout
Key Points: 1- It’s been 27 trading days since the SPX broke out from 5,650 on 9/19. We look at the key...
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10/29/24 - Banks
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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Week of 10/28/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term trading...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 10/25/24
Chart of the Week – 12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns Earlier in the week, we discussed...
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12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- We’re just about 12 months removed from the Oct’23 low. Since then, there have been NINE...
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10/25/24 - 3 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreCappNotes

Uptrend Traits
Good Closes One streak that no one is talking about extended on Tuesday: the SPX closed above its intra-day...
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Uptrend Traits, Industrials & Vol
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s long streak without consecutive declines ended yesterday, but the index continues...
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Sub-20% Breadth Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX ended yesterday with 16% stocks up for the session. Since the Oct’23 low, it...
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Six Straight Weekly Gains
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns...
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Week of 10/21/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/18/24
Chart of the Week – NFLX Within the Chart Trades report, we’ve started to do write ups for key...
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10/18/24 - 2 Buys & Earnings
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look

Small Caps - Now vs. July
Key Points: 1- IWM broke out from the daily bullish pattern and has a target of 253. 2- The recent...
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New Highs and a Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, 114 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, which is the second most we’ve...
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Strong Breadth & Stretched Sentiment
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged two straight 80% breadth days for the first time since three in...
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10/15/24 - 2 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreRoadmap

Week of 10/14/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns...
Read MoreCappNotes

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/11/24
Chart of the Week – Tech Leadership Last week, Technology was the leading sector on both Tuesday...
Read MoreOpening Look

US Dollar, Rates & Crude Oil
Key Points: 1- The US Dollar’s 10-day rate of change now is close to +2.9%, which is the biggest 10-day...
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10/11/24 - 3 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

Tech Leadership & Strong Breadth
Key Points: 1- The Technology sector led for the second straight day on Wednesday. The last time that...
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Responding to 1% Declines
Responding to 1% Declines As noted yesterday: “during the most intense trading periods in 2024, clusters...
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The Response
Key Points: 1- The SPX followed a 1% decline with a 1% gain yesterday for the SIXTH time since last year’s...
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Spotted – October Volatility
Key Points: 1-The SPX just went 20 trading sessions between 1% declines, which is the longest run between...
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10/8/24 - 2 Buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

Four Straight Up Weeks
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...
Read MoreRoadmap

Week of 10/7/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...
Read MoreCappNotes

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/4/24
Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Opening Look piece,...
Read MoreOpening Look

Post Jobs Setup
Key Points: 1- Over the last 10 trading days, the SPX has alternated gains and losses, with the only...
Read MoreOpening Look

Breakouts and Drawdowns
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above its most recent pattern breakout zone (5,650), having moved sideways...
Read MoreCappNotes

A Familiar Start
A Familiar Start Even though the SPX avoided a 1% loss on Tuesday, the 93-bps decline was the...
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Another Slow Start
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 93-bps loss on Tuesday was the worst in nearly a month (9/6). Early monthly...
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10/2/24 - 2 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreRoadmap

October and Q4’24
Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -Q4 Seasonality -Q4 studies Monthly...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Last 11 Months
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 11-month % gain is +36.8%. That’s the best 11-month run since the period...
Read MoreCappNotes

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/27/24
Chart of the Week – AAPL This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Chart Trades piece. It was...
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9/27/24 - 2 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

Clusters of Big Gains - Revisited
Key Points: 1- In strong markets, clusters of big gains that happen after corrective action can eventually...
Read MoreCappNotes

The S&P 500 vs. its RSI
If you haven’t heard, the SPX has been making new all-time highs for nearly a week, but its 14-day RSI...
Read MoreOpening Look

RSI – Confirming or Diverging?
Key Points: 1- Overall, of the 11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs, just two are currently overbought – XLY Consumer...
Read MoreOpening Look

Hanging Around
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +6.2% from the September low and is hanging close to its recent all-time...
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9/24/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...
Read MoreOpening Look

Weekly Winning Streaks
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...
Read MoreRoadmap

Week of 9/23/24
Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...
Read MoreCappNotes

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/20/24
Chart of the Week – Now vs. Spring’24 Currently, we’re still in the throes of an historically...
Read MoreOpening Look

The Next Phase
Key Points: 1- The 1.7% advance now is the SPX’s third 1% gain of September and the fifth absolute 1%...
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