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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
PostScript
Week Ending 1/12/24
Topics Covered: Market -Weekly performance -Key weekly moving averages -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily...
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Good Closes Continue
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day midpoint for: 4/4 days (100%) 19/24 days (79%)...
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CPI, Momentum Divergence and Crypto
Key Points: 1- This is the first time in the last three releases that the SPX’s 14-day RSI is NOT overbought...
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Japan Focus
Key Points: 1- The SPX followed Monday’s 1.4% gain with a tiny loss yesterday, which is nothing new. ...
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The First Bounce of '24
Key Points: 1- The SPX respected the middle line of the Bollinger Bands yesterday – its 20-Day MA. The...
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What the Short-term Work is Telling Us
Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its intra-day mid-point again on Friday, which has become a short-term...
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Week Ending - 1/5/24
Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IHF, MSOS –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
Retracement
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the SPX closed below its 20-Day Moving Average for the first time since 11/2. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
Indicator Check Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/28 high now is -2%, which is still less than each of the...
Read MoreChart Trades
2023 Wrap & 2024 Game Plan
Stats: Of the trade ideas we conveyed, 25 went live. 20 buys: 60%-win rate 5 shorts: 80%-win rate Each...
Read MoreOpening Look
Now vs. August'23
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour 14-period RSI hit its lowest level (41) since the October lows on Tuesday. ...
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What's Next
Key Points: 1- The NDX just logged its best year since 1999. The NDX is +1% since its November’21 high. ...
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12/20/23 - Final 2023 Report
Observations Given the continued light run up through yesterday, we held off on issuing any new buy...
Read MoreOpening Look
No Short-Term Blemishes
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point for nine consecutive days and 13/14....
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SPX's 14-Day RSI > 80
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI closed above 80 yesterday for the first time since 9/1/20. That...
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Seven Straight Up Weeks
Key Points: 1- The SPX is up seven-straight weeks, its sixth streak of at least seven straight weekly...
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The Most Impressive Part of this Rally
Key Points: 1- We compare this comeback to the Q4 2019 extension and post COVID 2020 snapback below....
Read MoreOpening Look
Two SPX Targets Hit
Key Points: 1- With the 1.4% spike, the SPX achieved two of our pattern targets, 4,675 and 4,700. That...
Read MoreOpening Look
FOMC, New Highs & Winning Streaks
Key Points: 1- So far in 2023, there have been seven FOMC meetings. Two weeks later, the SPX has been...
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12/13/23 - Full Report & 3 New Buys
Observations With the market’s extension showing no cracks yet ahead of the FOMC, many stocks...
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Overbought, Bullish Patterns & CPI
Key Points: 1- This is the fourth time in 2023 that the SPX enters CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 12/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Now vs. Late July
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...
Read MoreChart Trades
12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns
Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next 1% Day
Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...
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A Key Streak & Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...
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Rotating and Retracing
Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....
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1% Moves Tell the Story
Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained. In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...
Read MorePostScript
November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23
Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...
Read MoreOpening Look
November's Two Halves
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...
Read MoreChart Trades
11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys
Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...
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Sellers' Strike
Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...
Read MoreChart Trades
11/27/23 - Two Buys
Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...
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Week Ending 11/24/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
After the Feast
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Steep Uptrend Line
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low. We...
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Round Trip
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
Large Three-Week Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks. Prior three-week advances of at least...
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Week Ending 11/17/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next Patterns
Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Encore
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move...
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1% Gains & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days. For some context, the...
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Week Ending 11/10/23
Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX,...
Read MoreOpening Look
Searching for Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns...
Read MoreOpening Look
Consolidating with Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight...
Read MoreChart Trades
A New CappThesis Report
What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts. How is...
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The Next 5%
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From...
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The Need for Digestion
Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six...
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Week Ending 11/3/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth:...
Read MoreOpening Look
More 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior...
Read MoreOpening Look
Comparing the Rebounds
Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August. The other two looked...
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October'23
Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly...
Read MoreChart Trades
October Wrap
Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout...
Read MoreOpening Look
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/27/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for...
Read MoreBreaking Out
Selling Pressure
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns...
Read MoreOpening Look
Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month...
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One New Short Idea
Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited....
Read MoreOpening Look
SPX & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s...
Read MoreOpening Look
Streaks in 2023
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced...
Read MoreOpening Look
1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week. The last time the index endured at least two...
Read MoreChart Trades
Two Financial Stocks
The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out. The...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/20/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...
Read MoreOpening Look
Downside Momentum
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and...
Read MoreOpening Look
Holding Near a Key Zone
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited. Five...
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Three Key Traits
Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September. All three...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/13/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly...
Read MoreOpening Look
Test Number One (w/Video)
Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD &...
Read MoreOpening Look
Four Straight
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days. Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day...
Read MoreOpening Look
A 3-Day Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August. The three-day...
Read MoreChart Trades
GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS
The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop. That was...
Read MoreOpening Look
Big Two-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 10/6/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreOpening Look
Support Still Being Tested
Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last...
Read MoreOpening Look
In Search of a Winning Streak
Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent...
Read MoreChart Trades
COST, ISRG
COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on...
Read MoreOpening Look
In the Zone
Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring...
Read MoreOpening Look
Separation
Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced...
Read MorePostScript
September & Q3'23
Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps...
Read MoreMorning Trends
CappThesis - Year One in the Books
Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide...
Read MoreLast Licks
Small Caps Trying
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Clusters of Big Down Days
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. ...
Read MoreLast Licks
Downside Follow Through
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
It Starts with Good Closes
Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Some Green
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long Weekly Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/22/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Big Daily Declines
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Bearish Pattern Triggered
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 –...
Read MoreLast Licks
Fed Volatility
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in...
Read MoreLast Licks
Almost Time
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns and New Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. ...
Read MoreMorning Trends
September's Second Half
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/15/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Market Notes
SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Never Forget
Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2-...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/8/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the...
Read MoreLast Licks
All Over the Place
Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Familiar Start
Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except...
Read MoreMorning Trends
IWM, SPX and RSP
Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like...
Read MoreLast Licks
Bad Breadth
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
After the Snapback
Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreLast Licks
Two Thirds of '23 Done
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Finishing Well
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains
Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Patterns & Indicators
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder....
Read MoreLast Licks
A Winning Streak
Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs –...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive
Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 8/25/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
Another Attempt
Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action....
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Subscribers to CappThesis will receive dependable, thoughtful, authentic and succinct analysis throughout each week.