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Subscribers to CappThesis receive dependable, thoughtful and succinct analysis throughout each week.
Morning Trends
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Sentiment & How a Top Could Play Out
Key Points: 1- Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader recently noted that investors now favor stocks over bonds...
Read MoreLast Licks
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More Bullish Patterns
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Weekly Moves: 2023 vs. 2022
Key Points: 1- In 2022, there were 19 weekly absolute moves of at least +/-3% (9 up, 10 down). In 2023,...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 7/14/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best...
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Breakouts, Small Index Moves & New Highs
Key Points: 1- The SPX has proven it can hold breakouts over the last few weeks and months; we have to...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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The Crashing Dollar
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: US Dollar (6) SPX (3) Bitcoin (3) Market Stats & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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SPX & US Dollar
Key Points: 1- By holding above yesterday’s opening gap, the SPX completed the latest bullish formation...
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More Green Post CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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CPI, MACD and Chart Set-Ups
Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off two straight months of net-positive two-week price action post CPI,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Equal Weight S&P Sector ETFs
Key Points: 1- A better way to view yesterday’s action is through the lens of the S&P’s equal weight...
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Strong Participation… Despite Big Missing Pieces
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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It Gets Interesting Now
Key Points: 1- The “dip” currently doesn’t appear too different than other pauses over the last four...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 7/7/2023
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: OIH, USO –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Weekly Moves, Breadth & Bonds
Key Points: 1- As of now, the SPX is set to notch its second weekly decline in the last three weeks –...
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SPX Holds, but Breadth Worsens
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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SPX, Germany, Japan & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off two days of small price movement, it has the chance to form another...
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Holding… on Light Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLRE Real Estate 5- Best...
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Drawdown Scenarios
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s comeback to conclude June keeps alive the potential for another continuation...
Read MorePostScript
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June & Q2'23
Topics Covered: 1- July SPX After +10% First Six months 2- Rest of Year after Strong First Six months...
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Baton Passed Back to Value
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Indicator Check-Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX has routinely hit the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands in 2023. It literally...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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"Who Cares? It's Going Up"
Key Points: 1- In a Twitter poll I ran yesterday, 70% of the respondents were bullish; 30% were bearish. ...
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Growth's Turn
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
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SPX, NASDAQ, High Yield Bonds & Bitcoin
Key Points: 1- The SPX has stayed above the 50-Day MA late March, easily the longest streak above the...
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Growth Falters; the Field Holds
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Trends Trend
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into the last week of the year’s second quarter +4% for June, +5.8% for...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 6/23/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum –Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Real Trend
Key Points: 1- The recent pause has taken place after one of the SPX’s biggest weekly advances we’ve...
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Losing Streak Over Thanks to…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discr 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Framing the Pullback
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Thursday trying to avoid its first 4-day losing streak since May 1-4. ...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 6/16/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks, Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Big Weekly Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX could log its second 3% weekly move this week of 2023. For some context: in...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Real Reaction
Key Points: 1- Seeing the 10-Year Yield move materially higher into the next FOMC meeting would encourage...
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Felt Like a Fed Day
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Expected Pause
Key Points: 1- Since last July, the 10-Year Yield was noticeably lower two weeks after a FOMC decision...
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Broad Participation
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Oscillating Between CPI Dates
Key Points: 1- Since November’22, the SPX has alternated gains and losses in the four-week periods between...
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Growth Leads in front of CPI
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Biggest Week Since mid-December
Key Points: 1- The last time both CPI and the FOMC occurred during the same week was December’22– CPI...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 6/9/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- From trough to peak, the SPX is +23% in about seven months. It logged a near 20% advance...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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How Long Can the Perfect Rotation Last?
Key Points: 1- The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (+0.74%) outperformed the SPX (-0.38%) by 1.12% yesterday....
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Risk of Strong Internals
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new 20-Day High, and the SPX did not. 2-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Market Update
Observations: ETFs The big gainers have outnumbered big decliners by a large margin all day. ETF...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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What Hitting the Latest Pattern Target Means
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Tuesday after achieving its latest upside pattern target near 4,300. ...
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Bad Close after SPX Hits Target
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comms Services 5- Best...
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Two Straight 1% Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to 69 in early February; it finished at 66 on Friday. More...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 6/2/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Screening for Breakouts
Key Points: 1-A recent stock/ETF bullish screen we ran kicked out 56 ETFs. The most interesting part...
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Solid Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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A Closer Look at XLK Technology
Key Points: 1- XLK saw its 14-Day RSI hit 76 early yesterday. That was the highest mark since November’21...
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No Change…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Overbought vs. Oversold
Key Points: 1- Last Friday’s +1.3% gain triggered the SPX’s bigger bullish pattern for the second time...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 5/26/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Not Historically Extreme
Key Points: 1- The NDX/Willshire 5k Index is stretched on the daily chart, as the 14-Day RSI is near...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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One for the Ages
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Semis: NVDA MU SMH SPX: 100-Day Study Chart Patterns ...
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When Breakouts Work
Key Points: 1- NVDA was among one of the first stocks to break out of a multi-month base back in January. ...
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More Digestion
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Taking a Punch
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s latest breakouts no longer are live; the pattern breakout from 3/31 remains...
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Important Action Beyond the SPX
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples...
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Market Internals
Key Points: 1- While leadership has been top-heavy recently, the SPX’s cumulative adv-dec line has been...
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Week Ending 5/19/23
Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Market is Always Right
Key Points: 1- Yesterday, Growth stocks ripped higher on a day that both interest rates and the dollar...
Read MoreLast Licks
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New 52-Wk Highs… For Tech
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Bullish Patterns & Overbought Readings
Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off its second 1% gain of May, it’s getting close to triggering the...
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Pinball Action Continues
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC, XLK, XLY 5- Best &...
Read MoreLast Licks
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A Lot of Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2021
Key Points: 1- From January’22 through March’23, the SPX’s LEAST amount of monthly +/-1% moves were EIGHT...
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Good Closes Continue
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 5/12/23
Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Q2 Trading Range
Key Points: 1- With the SPX is -0.14% for the week, the index could log its sixth straight absolute weekly...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Stuck... for Now
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Sector Performance & Breadth...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Technology Focus
Key Points: 1-Yesterday, XLK Technology made a new 52-week high and marginally broke out from a multi-week...
Read MoreLast Licks
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Afternoon Update
SPX Brief Comments The back-and-forth movement continues, with the SPX and many ETFs are off their lows,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Testing Key Levels
Key Points: 1- The SPX has altered gains and losses two weeks post the CPI report the last six times,...
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Still Calm…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Mixed Market Messages
Key Points: 1- Which better describes the market? That we saw two HUGE daily moves during last week’s...
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Slow Monday
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MorePostScript
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5 Straight Small Weekly Moves
Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS Cannabis -Worst...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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After Four Straight Declines
Key Points: 1- While the SPX’s pattern work has been quiet lately, potential bullish AND bearish formations...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Breakouts & Breakdowns
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Potential Bearish Pattern Daily...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- This is the SPX’s fourth losing streak of at least three in 2023. The difference this...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The Most Anticipated…
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has moved sideways for nearly eight weeks now, which is the flattest...
Read MoreLast Licks
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Elevator Down, Escalator Up
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Momentum, Sentiment & Breadth
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour RSI chart has done well at depicting short-term extremes in recent...
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Slow Start
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Disc 5-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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The May Setup
Key Points: 1- In the 13 years in which the SPX logged 1% gains in both March & April since 1970,...
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Mostly Red
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Post-Shock
Key Points: 1- Seeing the SPX’s latest breakout attempt being potentially wasted would be discouraging,...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Weighing the Evidence
Key Points: We expand on each of these below: Bearish 1- Sentiment remains stretched 2- Breadth: fewer...
Read MoreLast Licks
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SPX Still Sleeping
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Last Week’s Small Move Wasn't Meaningless
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into April’s final week up 59 bps for the month and having just logged its...
Read MorePostScript
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Week Ending 4/21/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: -10bps Weeks 2- Breadth 3- Best 20 ETFs 4- Worst 20 ETFs 5- Major Indices 6-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Pausing… for Now
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been confined to an upward sloping channel since the March lows. It’s very...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Too Quiet?
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Volatility Study 2- VIX 5-Wk 30% Declines 3- Sentiment 4-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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April's First Test
Key Points: 1- The SPX has some wiggle room after the recent upswing. It remains 2.4% above its most...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Just a Slow Grind?
Key Points: 1- I ran a twitter poll starting yesterday afternoon asking #fintwit users whether the market’s...
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The Beat Goes On
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best &...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Another Good Close
Key Points: Two weeks into April, we have seen: 1-A plethora of good closes 2-Smaller daily moves 3-Bullish...
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The Bid Continues
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Now vs. August'22
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has gone 16 trading days without a 1% decline, which is the longest since...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Holiday Trading
Key Points: 1- With the SPX now 10 days removed from its last 1% decline, the odds are high that another...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Conflicting Action
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Buying the Dip Study 2- Sector Seasonality 3- SPX Patterns...
Read MoreLast Licks
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Streak Over
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- KRE Regional...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Getting Short-Term Stretched
Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to extend its winning streak to five, which has not happened since...
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Long Streaks
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- RSP Eql...
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March and Q1'23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX After a +3% March 2- After Back-to-Back +5% Qtrs. 3- Quarterly Win Streaks 4-...
Read MoreMorning Trends
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Quarter End Trends
Key Points: 1- Notwithstanding a huge roll-over today, the SPX will avoid back-to-back monthly declines...
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Leveraging the Move
Key Points: 1-While the big daily moves continue to suggest a risky trading environment, higher lows...
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The Latest 1% Gain
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- NDX 6-...
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Another Chance
Key Points: 1- While the SPX has failed to extend beyond its breakout point yet, it has done a fairly...
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Similar Feel
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- ARKK 6- SMH...
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Technology & Bonds
Key Points: 1- Recently, XLK Technology has performed a lot better than TLT. This suggests a mean reverting...
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Quiet Mean Reversion
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- XLE Energy...
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Two Straight Weekly Gains
Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged two straight 1.4% weekly gains. While notching another weekly advance...
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Week Ending 3/24/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLC Comm Services 5- MTUM Momentum 6- SMH Semiconductors...
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A Missing Ingredient
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s sporadic winning streaks since 2022 have made for a trying trading environment. ...
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Damage Control
Key Points: 1- With the 10-Year Yield having led the Fed Funds rate at every major inflection point over...
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Words Matter
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- US Dollar...
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What Needs to Happen Next
Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield was higher two weeks after the FOMC decision three of the last four...
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A Few More Hours…
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- BETZ Sports...
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Looking for Momentum
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s recent comeback has formed the next potential bullish formation. A close above...
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Break in the Action
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- XLC Comm Services...
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Two Markets
Key Points: 1- 7/11 Sector ETFs advanced last week, but 60% of the SPX’s components declined. Even more...
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Week Ending 3/17/23
Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +/-1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX vs. IWM R2k 4- XLF Financials 5- IWF Large Cap...
Read MoreBreaking Out
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Two Way Volatility
Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- VIX +30% Week study 2- VIX Chart 3- +/-1% Moves 2023 vs....
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Patterns, Breadth & Seasonality
Key Points: 1- The RSP/SPX relative ratio’s 14-Day RSI indicator plummeted to 14 yesterday, which is...
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A Lot Going on
Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- XLI Industrials...
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1% Moves Just Don’t Stop
Key Points: 1- If we can trust one trend since the start of 2022, it’s that sizable gains AND losses...
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The Reaction Now... and Later
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today’s session with the lowest RSI reading (34) on a CPI release date...
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