Newsletters Test

February Performance & March Outlook

Topics Covered: -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – February -Patterns – March -March Seasonality...

March 2024

March

Key Points: 1- The SPX and its cumulative advance-decline line both finished at all-time closing highs...

An Extra Day

Key Points: 1- The SPX has outperformed its historical bias in January and February (with one day left)....

Rallies & Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX has gained 24% from the 10/27/23 low to the most recent 2/23/24 high. Along the...

Digestion

Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its mid-point for the second straight day on Monday.  The index only...

Chart Trades - 02/27/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Momentum

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-day RSI hasn’t touched (let alone breach) the 50-zone since late October. ...

Week Ending 2/23/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs:...

Another Pattern Breakout

Key Points: 1- A new bullish pattern was triggered yesterday for the SPX: target 5,180. 2- The big move...

Not Yet...

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s hold yesterday produced a higher low vs. the 2/14 low point, which keeps the...

Watch this Trendline

Key Points: 1– The SPX hasn’t had more than two straight negative breadth sessions since four in...

In Limbo

Key Points: 1– The SPX now has had two weekly declines in the last 16 weeks. The last time we saw...

The Staircase Advance

Key Points: 1– A new potential bullish pattern has been building for the SPX after the bounce back. ...

No Downside Follow Through

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% declines since the 10/27/23 low, and each one has been immediately...

02/14/24 - 4 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Nothing has Changed Yet

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown got to -2.6% at yesterday’s low, which now is the largest peak-to-trough...

SPX & CPI

Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to log a gain two weeks after the CPI report for the fourth straight...

SPX 5,030

Key Points: 1-The SPX hit our 5,030-price target on Friday, making it three straight major successful...

Week Ending 2/9/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...

5 Factors Driving the Market Higher

Key Points: We review each of these below:   1-Good closes 2-Short daily streaks of negative breadth...

02/08/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Milestones

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s eventual first push above 5k has a high probability of being revisited if history...

Before and After the Big Daily Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX has had just two 1% declines in the last 71 trading days.  Over that same time,...

New Highs vs. New Lows

Key Points: 1- On 12/14/24, 107 S&P 500 holdings made new 52-week highs, which was the high mark...

Three Straight 1% Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX finished last week with three straight absolute 1% moves, which last happened...

January Performance & February Outlook

Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – January -Patterns – February -February...

Two Potential Bearish Patterns

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had two 1% declines in the last 64 trading days.    2- We’re watching...

FOMC, SPX & the 10-Year Yield

Key Points: 1- Over the last two years, there have been 16 FOMC decisions.  Eight times the SPX was lower...

Another Target Hit

Key Points: 1- The SPX achieved its latest pattern target of 4,920 on Monday, logging its fourth best...

Drawdowns, Breadth & Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown has been -2.4% since the October lows despite plenty of potential...

Week Ending 1/26/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks 2021-24 –Best 20...

Trading Boxes

Key Points: 1- For the SPX, it’s been a series of breakouts, extensions, pauses, breakouts, extensions,...

Another Long Winning Streak

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days. Since the start of 2009, the SPX has had 64 winning...

Three Key Factors

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point 9/11 times going back to 1/8… and...

01/23/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short

Below are four buys and one short idea.   The first three buys are names within the NASDAQ Next Gen 100...

Rallies vs. Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s breadth was just as robust yesterday (72% advancing stocks) as it was on Friday...

Breakouts, Bullish Patterns and 1% Moves

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged nine 1% gains vs. one 1% decline since 10/26/23 – or 57 trading...

Week Ending 1/19/24

Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – 12-week ROC –Best 20 ETFs: New...

January 2024

One Time in 56 Trading Sessions

Key Points: 1- The afternoon up-swings have been gradually happening earlier over the last four days:...

Tug of War

Key Points: 1- The short-term conundrum:  The SPX now has declined in 4/6 sessions and has had negative...

A Notable Change in Daily Breadth

Key Points: 1- Since 12/29/23, there have been 11 trading days. Over that time, the % of advancing S&P...

Week Ending 1/12/24

Topics Covered: Market -Weekly performance -Key weekly moving averages -Patterns -AVWAP      Stats -Daily...

Good Closes Continue

Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day midpoint for:   4/4 days (100%) 19/24 days (79%)...

CPI, Momentum Divergence and Crypto

Key Points: 1- This is the first time in the last three releases that the SPX’s 14-day RSI is NOT overbought...

01/11/24

Here are four NDX components with bullish charts. For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue...

Japan Focus

Key Points: 1- The SPX followed Monday’s 1.4% gain with a tiny loss yesterday, which is nothing new. ...

The First Bounce of '24

Key Points: 1- The SPX respected the middle line of the Bollinger Bands yesterday – its 20-Day MA.  The...

What the Short-term Work is Telling Us

Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its intra-day mid-point again on Friday, which has become a short-term...

Week Ending - 1/5/24

Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IHF, MSOS –Worst...

Retracement

Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the SPX closed below its 20-Day Moving Average for the first time since 11/2. ...

Indicator Check Up

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/28 high now is -2%, which is still less than each of the...

01/03/24

Here’s the first set of trade ideas for 2024.    We’ll convey these by category as noted below.   For...

2023 Wrap & 2024 Game Plan

Stats: Of the trade ideas we conveyed, 25 went live. 20 buys: 60%-win rate 5 shorts:  80%-win rate Each...

Now vs. August'23

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour 14-period RSI hit its lowest level (41) since the October lows on Tuesday. ...

What's Next

Key Points: 1- The NDX just logged its best year since 1999.  The NDX is +1% since its November’21 high. ...

Snapback

Key Points: 1- We haven’t seen a 1% advance immediately follow at 1% loss in a while. The last time it...

Gut Check

Key Points: 1- We look at yesterday’s reversal vs. the one on 7/27 and how the response needs to be different...

12/20/23 - Final 2023 Report

  Observations Given the continued light run up through yesterday, we held off on issuing any new buy...

No Short-Term Blemishes

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point for nine consecutive days and 13/14....

SPX's 14-Day RSI > 80

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI closed above 80 yesterday for the first time since 9/1/20.  That...

Seven Straight Up Weeks

Key Points: 1- The SPX is up seven-straight weeks, its sixth streak of at least seven straight weekly...

The Most Impressive Part of this Rally

Key Points: 1- We compare this comeback to the Q4 2019 extension and post COVID 2020 snapback below....

Two SPX Targets Hit

Key Points: 1- With the 1.4% spike, the SPX achieved two of our pattern targets, 4,675 and 4,700.  That...

FOMC, New Highs & Winning Streaks

Key Points: 1- So far in 2023, there have been seven FOMC meetings. Two weeks later, the SPX has been...

12/13/23 - Full Report & 3 New Buys

  Observations With the market’s extension showing no cracks yet ahead of the FOMC, many stocks...

Overbought, Bullish Patterns & CPI

Key Points: 1- This is the fourth time in 2023 that the SPX enters CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading...

Big Week

Key Points: 1- The SPX concluded the first full week of December in positive territory, closing above...

Week Ending 12/8/23

Topics Covered:  -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

Now vs. Late July

Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it...

12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns

Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our...

The Next 1% Day

Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on...

A Key Streak & Market Breadth

Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday,...

Rotating and Retracing

Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse....

1% Moves Tell the Story

Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained.  In fact, 87% of the S&P 500...

November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23

Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full...

December

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s November gain of 8.9% was among the best Novembers in history and one of the...

November's Two Halves

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those...

11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys

Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to...

Sellers' Strike

Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also...

Hovering

Key Points: 1- In six of the last eight days, the SPX hasn’t moved more than 20 bps; it started this...

11/27/23 - Two Buys

Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been...

Week Ending 11/24/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

After the Feast

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight...

The Steep Uptrend Line

Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low.  We...

11/22/23

Observations With the SPX going from oversold to overbought in 16 trading sessions, many stocks have...

Round Trip

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year.  ...

Large Three-Week Gains

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks.  Prior three-week advances of at least...

Week Ending 11/17/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

The Next Patterns

Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag...

11/17/23

Observations With the SPX in pause mode right now, many stocks have begun to digest their big gains. ...

Breadth

Key Points: 1- Of the five 1% gains that the SPX has logged since 10/30, four times at least 80% of S&P...

The Encore

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move...

SPX & CPI

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI finished at 61 yesterday.   In June and July, the index went into...

11/14/23

  Observations With the SPX’s extension continuing, breakouts have been working, including the last three...

1% Gains & Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days.  For some context, the...

Week Ending 11/10/23

Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX,...

Searching for Higher Lows

Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns...

11/10/23

  Observations While the SPX’s long winning streak has gotten a lot of attention, plenty of individual...

Consolidating with Gains

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight...

A New CappThesis Report

  What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts.   How is...

The Next 5%

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From...

11/8/23

Chart Trades Publishing Schedule Through the initial weeks of the Chart Trades report, we’ve provided...

The Need for Digestion

Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six...

Week Ending 11/3/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth:...

More 1% Gains

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior...

Comparing the Rebounds

Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August.  The other two looked...

October'23

Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly...

October Wrap

  Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout...

Another Attempt

Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. ...

Oversold

Key Points: 1- Of the three down legs since the July 27th high, the current pullback has been both the...

Week Ending 10/27/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines

Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for...

Selling Pressure

Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns...

Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility

Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month...

One New Short Idea

  Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited....

SPX & Bitcoin

Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s...

Streaks in 2023

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced...

1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support

Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week.  The last time the index endured at least two...

Two Financial Stocks

The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out.  The...

Week Ending 10/20/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20...

Downside Momentum

Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and...

Negated

Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -SPX (2) -RSP (2) -RSP vs. SPX (2) -10-Year Yield (2)...

Whipsawed

Key Points: 1- After yesterday’s 1% decline, the SPX now has logged two 1% gains and two 1% losses so...

Holding Near a Key Zone

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited.  Five...

Five Bullish Patterns

New stocks mentioned: J, URI, EQT, TT, AZO

Three Key Traits

Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September.   All three...

Week Ending 10/13/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly...

Updates

SUMMARY Stocks mentioned: ISRG, DIS, GRMN, ZS, EPD, CMI, PCAR, CSX, PENN New Buys: EPD, ZS New Short:...

Test Number One (w/Video)

Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD &...

Four Straight

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days.  Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day...

A 3-Day Winning Streak

Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August.  The three-day...

GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS

The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop.  That was...

Big Two-Day Gains

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have...

Step One

Key Points: 1-The SPX logged its first 1% gain in 26 days on Friday, which is the longest streak since...

Week Ending 10/6/23

Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best...

Support Still Being Tested

Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last...

In Search of a Winning Streak

Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent...

COST, ISRG

COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday.  But simply seeing its symbol pop up on...

In the Zone

Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring...

Separation

Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced...

September & Q3'23

Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps...

CappThesis - Year One in the Books

Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide...

Bouncing

Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -SPX -Market Stats -XLRE vs. XLU -ZROZ, TLT -XHB -XLC -JET...