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Breakouts & 1% Moves

Key Points The SPX started the holiday-shortened week with a modest 24 bps gain, highlighted by a late-session...

SPX, the Dollar & META

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was...

Week of 2/18/25

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was the...

Friday Charts

Today, we’re focusing on the patterns. With the SPX closing above 6,100,...

Breakouts

Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain since 1/17 on Thursday, which was 17 trading days ago. That...

2/14/25 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Respecting Support

Key Points The SPX wasted no time in snapping back from yesterday’s hot inflation numbers, with the index...

The Market Strength Indicator

Key Points By the slimmest of margins, the S&P 500 scratched out a tiny 3 bps gain on Tuesday.  Appropriately,...

Dissecting the Trading Range

Key Points The S&P 500 scratched and clawed its way to a 0.7% gain on Monday, which was the index’s...

Key Weekly Support Lines

Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle of its long-term...

Week of 2/10/25

SPX Weekly Track    Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled...

Stock Chart Rundown

Post-Earnings PLTR With this week’s huge reaction to earnings, PLTR’s 14-week RSI has shot back to 82,...

A Key Indicator

Key Points For the third straight day, the SPX opened lower, pivoted, rallied, and closed near its intraday...

Uptrend Traits

Key Points The SPX trended higher all day on Tuesday and closed near its highs on neutral volume. That...

Turnaround Mondays

Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...

Another Turnaround Monday

Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an...

February'25

SPX – Key January Stats +2.7% monthly gain   -Up 12/20 trading days -Positive breadth 12/20 trading days -Closed...

Key Post Earnings Charts

META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...

Post Earnings Charts

META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday...

Pick Your Favorite Pattern

Key Points It felt and looked like a FOMC day yesterday – even before 2:00 PM this time – and by 4:00,...

The Two Wild Days Before FOMC

Key Points The SPX snapped back from Monday’s 1.5% decline and just missed logging a 1% gain. Thus, the...

The Epic Breadth Shift

Key Points The SPX logged its third 1% loss of January on Monday, and at -1.46%, it was the worst showing...

Key Charts & Levels

  Key Points On Friday afternoon, seeing the SPX close at a new all-time weekly high and followed...

The Next Phase

Key Points The SPX leveraged the huge spike in the final 15 minutes yesterday to notch its fourth straight...

1/24/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Pausing at New All-Time Highs

Key Points The SPX logged its third straight gain on Wednesday, marginally (and briefly) making a new...

The Strong Breadth Streak

Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...

Extreme Positive Internals Continue

Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings...

Another Weekly Reversal

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held...

Week of 1/21/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held...

Four Straight 70% SPX Breadth Days

Key Point The SPX notched its fourth consecutive trading session with at least 70% of its holdings advancing...

January 2025

Battleground

Key Point With the SPX’s bearish breakdown zone being below 5,850 and the bullish breakout zone being...

RSP’s Positive Reversal

Intra-Day The SPX logged an old-fashioned positive reversal and closed near its highs on strong breadth...

1/14/25 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

  Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

SPX Weekly Track   Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things,...

Week of 1/13/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things,...

Key Levels & Rally Attempts

Key Point From just about any perspective, it’s clear that the SPX is at a critical technical juncture:...

Breadth Update

Key Point Through yesterday, 53% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages...

Judging the Bounce

Key Point Since October’23, the SPX has routinely gotten overbought on the short-term two-hour chart....

1/7/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Two Way Volatility in 2025

Key Point Friday marked the SPX’s first 1% gain of 2025, but it was the SIXTH absolute 1% move in the...

Long Losing Streaks

Key Point The SPX’s five-day decline now is the longest losing streak since six straight from April 12-19,...

1/3/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

January Charts & Stats

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed...

January'25

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed...

Grand Finale’24

Thank You First and foremost, thank you ALL for supporting CappThesis in 2024.  It was an epic year for...

Next Steps

Key Point The SPX snapped back on Friday and finally notched a positive breadth session in December –...

Indicators, Sentiment & Losing Streaks

Key Point Needless to say, the December performance (of nearly everything aside from MAGS 7) has been...

Important Post-Fed Charts

Key Point The FOMC’s hawkish cut unleashed one of the harshest declines we’ve seen in 2024.  We assess...

Powell’s Turn

Key Point The SPX has had a very good track record two weeks after Fed meetings in 2024.  And the year’s...

The OTHER Breadth Streak that No One is Talking About

Key Point The SPX’s negative breadth streak now is at 11 straight, but none of the days have been extreme....

12/17/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Week of 12/16/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Negative breadth -RSP, SPX, MAGS, SMH -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term...

NVDA - Dec'24

  NVDA We cited NVDA as a buy idea in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market Comments

Topics Discussed   Buy the dip in an uptrend SRE   Bullish Pattern Breakouts ISRG, REG   Key Charts -Sector...

 SPX vs. RSP

Key Point: The RSP Equal Weight ETF has lost ground in 6 of the last 8 days and has dropped to the lower...

Digestion

Key Points: The SPX’s pause has come when it was supposed to – from an overbought s/t RSI, proximity...

The Bearish Breadth Streak

Key Points: We’re taking a close look at the current 6-day negative breadth streak vs. the 6-day streak...

SPX 6,100

  Three-Week Gains The SPX was up 4/5 days last week and notched its third straight weekly gain. However,...

SPX 6,099.97

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live...

Week of 12/9/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live...

ARKK, JETS and Bitcoin

Key Points: Given the SPX’s small move yesterday, we’re focusing on other areas today in the Key...

12/6/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Milestones

Key Points: The SPX is close to 6,100 and Bitcoin is above 100k.  We’re taking a close look across various...

Boring, Not Bearish

Key Point: By one measurement (the 2-day Average True Range), the SPX has just logged its lowest two-day...

Our Market Stance

Key Point: Consistently having live bullish patterns and targets in play tells us that we’re in an uptrend. ...

12/3/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

December'24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies   Monthly...

Happy Thanksgiving

Key Point: Two studies below depict the historical positive bias of the days right before and after Thanksgiving...

The Smallest 6-Day Winning Streak

Key Point: The SPX logged its sixth straight gain yesterday, with each daily advance being less than...

Trading Channels

 After 2% Weekly Declines The SPX snapped back by 1.7% last week, again showing buyers’ continued willingness...

Channel Surfing

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading...

Week of 11/25/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading...

Best Breadth in Two Weeks

Key Point; Yesterday was one of the strongest sessions we’ve had in a while, with 87% of the S&P...

Many Bullish Charts

Many Bullish Charts Even the most consistent trends are destined to be broken – no matter how short or...

November 2024

NVDA Chart Preview

  Earnings NVDA – First, let’s review the two pattern breakouts that we cited in a Chart Trades...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

The Most Likely Path

Key Point Yesterday on X, I showed two conflicting SPX charts, asking people which path was more likely...

-2% Weeks

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

Week of 11/18/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

3 Chart Trades

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

The Pause Continues

Key Point In Tuesday’s piece, “Short-term Stretched,” we reviewed a few charts that suggested the market...

4 Buys & Market Commentary

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

IGV Software Focus

Key Points: We’re focusing on the IGV Software ETF today. It’s been an obvious leader and now is short-term...

Short-term Stretched

Key Point: Given that the SPX is coming off the best weekly gain in over a year, it’s not outlandish...

Week of 11/11/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Four percent weekly gains -Long-term trading channel -SPX vs....

Indicator Checkup

Key Points: Not every indicator is overbought now, but many are near the high-end of their respective...

Another Bullish Pattern Target Achieved

Key Points: 1- With the SPX hitting the 5,900-target on Wednesday, it’s now the TENTH successful bullish...

11/7/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

The Opening Gap

Key Points: 1-    The early reaction to President Trump’s huge win last night is creating big gaps in...

Election Day Charts

Key Points: Today we’re looking at 10 election-related charts – none of which are related to polls, prediction...

Pre-Election Chart Setups

Key Points: 1- Since the breakout to new highs in September, the SPX has formed two trading boxes.  Box...

November'24

SPX – Key Monthly Stats – October -1.0% monthly loss   -Down 12/23 trading days -Negative...

November’24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies   Monthly...

A Trend that Needs to Right Itself

Key Points: 1- Over the last eight trading days, the SPX has had negative breadth six times.  We break...

The Last 29 Days

Yesterday’s price action did very little to change the index’s technical complexion. In fact, we could...

One of the Quietest Months in 3 Years

Key Points: 1- With just two 1% absolute moves in October, it’s the second lowest monthly total of 2024...

Since the Last Breakout

Key Points: 1- It’s been 27 trading days since the SPX broke out from 5,650 on 9/19. We look at the key...

10/29/24 - Banks

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Week of 10/28/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term trading...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 10/25/24

Chart of the Week – 12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns Earlier in the week, we discussed...

12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- We’re just about 12 months removed from the Oct’23 low. Since then, there have been NINE...

10/25/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Uptrend Traits

Good Closes One streak that no one is talking about extended on Tuesday: the SPX closed above its intra-day...

Uptrend Traits, Industrials & Vol

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s long streak without consecutive declines ended yesterday, but the index continues...

Sub-20% Breadth Days

Key Points: 1- The SPX ended yesterday with 16% stocks up for the session.  Since the Oct’23 low, it...

Six Straight Weekly Gains

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns -Live...

Week of 10/21/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns -Live...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/18/24

Chart of the Week – NFLX  Within the Chart Trades report, we’ve started to do write ups for key...

10/18/24 - 2 Buys & Earnings

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Small Caps - Now vs. July

Key Points: 1- IWM broke out from the daily bullish pattern and has a target of 253.   2- The recent...

New Highs and a Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Key Points: 1- Yesterday, 114 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, which is the second most we’ve...

Strong Breadth & Stretched Sentiment

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged two straight 80% breadth days for the first time since three in...

10/15/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Week of 10/14/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -AVWAP             Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/11/24

Chart of the Week – Tech Leadership Last week, Technology was the leading sector on both Tuesday...

US Dollar, Rates & Crude Oil

Key Points: 1- The US Dollar’s 10-day rate of change now is close to +2.9%, which is the biggest 10-day...

10/11/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Tech Leadership & Strong Breadth

Key Points: 1- The Technology sector led for the second straight day on Wednesday. The last time that...

Responding to 1% Declines

Responding to 1% Declines   As noted yesterday: “during the most intense trading periods in 2024, clusters...

The Response

Key Points: 1- The SPX followed a 1% decline with a 1% gain yesterday for the SIXTH time since last year’s...

Spotted – October Volatility

Key Points: 1-The SPX just went 20 trading sessions between 1% declines, which is the longest run between...

10/8/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Four Straight Up Weeks

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP             Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best...

Week of 10/7/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP             Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/4/24

Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Opening Look piece,...

October 2024

Post Jobs Setup

Key Points: 1- Over the last 10 trading days, the SPX has alternated gains and losses, with the only...

Breakouts and Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above its most recent pattern breakout zone (5,650), having moved sideways...

A Familiar Start

  A Familiar Start Even though the SPX avoided a 1% loss on Tuesday, the 93-bps decline was the...

Another Slow Start

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 93-bps loss on Tuesday was the worst in nearly a month (9/6).  Early monthly...

10/2/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

October and Q4’24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -Q4 Seasonality -Q4 studies   Monthly...

The Last 11 Months

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 11-month % gain is +36.8%. That’s the best 11-month run since the period...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/27/24

Chart of the Week – AAPL This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Chart Trades piece.  It was...

Hovering

Key Points: 1- From the September 6th low point, the SPX has gained nearly 7%.  This is only the fifth...

9/27/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...

Clusters of Big Gains - Revisited

Key Points: 1- In strong markets, clusters of big gains that happen after corrective action can eventually...

The S&P 500 vs. its RSI

If you haven’t heard, the SPX has been making new all-time highs for nearly a week, but its 14-day RSI...

RSI – Confirming or Diverging?

Key Points: 1- Overall, of the 11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs, just two are currently overbought – XLY Consumer...

Hanging Around

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +6.2% from the September low and is hanging close to its recent all-time...

9/24/24 - 3 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For...