Newsletters Test

RSP’s Positive Reversal

Intra-Day The SPX logged an old-fashioned positive reversal and closed near its highs on strong breadth...

1/14/25 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

  Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish...

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns

SPX Weekly Track   Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced...

Week of 1/13/25

SPX Weekly Track    Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced...

Key Levels & Rally Attempts

Key Point From just about any perspective, it’s clear that the SPX is at a critical technical juncture:...

Breadth Update

Key Point Through yesterday, 53% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages...

Judging the Bounce

Key Point Since October’23, the SPX has routinely gotten overbought on the short-term two-hour chart....

1/7/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Two Way Volatility in 2025

Key Point Friday marked the SPX’s first 1% gain of 2025, but it was the SIXTH absolute 1% move in the...

Long Losing Streaks

Key Point The SPX’s five-day decline now is the longest losing streak since six straight from April 12-19,...

1/3/25 - Two Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

January Charts & Stats

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days...

January'25

SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss   -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days...

Grand Finale’24

Thank You First and foremost, thank you ALL for supporting CappThesis in 2024.  It was an epic year for...

Next Steps

Key Point The SPX snapped back on Friday and finally notched a positive breadth session in December –...

Indicators, Sentiment & Losing Streaks

Key Point Needless to say, the December performance (of nearly everything aside from MAGS 7) has been...

Important Post-Fed Charts

Key Point The FOMC’s hawkish cut unleashed one of the harshest declines we’ve seen in 2024.  We assess...

Powell’s Turn

Key Point The SPX has had a very good track record two weeks after Fed meetings in 2024.  And the year’s...

The OTHER Breadth Streak that No One is Talking About

Key Point The SPX’s negative breadth streak now is at 11 straight, but none of the days have been extreme....

12/17/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red  ...

Week of 12/16/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Negative breadth -RSP, SPX, MAGS, SMH -Weekly losing streaks...

NVDA - Dec'24

  NVDA We cited NVDA as a buy idea in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market Comments

Topics Discussed   Buy the dip in an uptrend SRE   Bullish Pattern Breakouts ISRG, REG   Key Charts -Sector...

 SPX vs. RSP

Key Point: The RSP Equal Weight ETF has lost ground in 6 of the last 8 days and has dropped to the lower...

Digestion

Key Points: The SPX’s pause has come when it was supposed to – from an overbought s/t RSI, proximity...

The Bearish Breadth Streak

Key Points: We’re taking a close look at the current 6-day negative breadth streak vs. the 6-day streak...

SPX 6,100

  Three-Week Gains The SPX was up 4/5 days last week and notched its third straight weekly gain. However,...

SPX 6,099.97

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97...

Week of 12/9/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97...

ARKK, JETS and Bitcoin

Key Points: Given the SPX’s small move yesterday, we’re focusing on other areas today in the Key...

12/6/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Milestones

Key Points: The SPX is close to 6,100 and Bitcoin is above 100k.  We’re taking a close look across various...

Boring, Not Bearish

Key Point: By one measurement (the 2-day Average True Range), the SPX has just logged its lowest two-day...

Our Market Stance

Key Point: Consistently having live bullish patterns and targets in play tells us that we’re in an uptrend. ...

12/3/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

December'24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies...

Happy Thanksgiving

Key Point: Two studies below depict the historical positive bias of the days right before and after Thanksgiving...

The Smallest 6-Day Winning Streak

Key Point: The SPX logged its sixth straight gain yesterday, with each daily advance being less than...

Trading Channels

 After 2% Weekly Declines The SPX snapped back by 1.7% last week, again showing buyers’ continued willingness...

Channel Surfing

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel...

Week of 11/25/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel...

Best Breadth in Two Weeks

Key Point; Yesterday was one of the strongest sessions we’ve had in a while, with 87% of the S&P...

Many Bullish Charts

Many Bullish Charts Even the most consistent trends are destined to be broken – no matter how short or...

NVDA Chart Preview

  Earnings NVDA – First, let’s review the two pattern breakouts that we cited in a Chart Trades...

3 Buys, NVDA & Market

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red  ...

The Most Likely Path

Key Point Yesterday on X, I showed two conflicting SPX charts, asking people which path was more likely...

-2% Weeks

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

Week of 11/18/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential...

3 Chart Trades

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

The Pause Continues

Key Point In Tuesday’s piece, “Short-term Stretched,” we reviewed a few charts that suggested the market...

4 Buys & Market Commentary

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

IGV Software Focus

Key Points: We’re focusing on the IGV Software ETF today. It’s been an obvious leader and now is short-term...

Short-term Stretched

Key Point: Given that the SPX is coming off the best weekly gain in over a year, it’s not outlandish...

Week of 11/11/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Four percent weekly gains -Long-term trading channel -SPX vs....

Indicator Checkup

Key Points: Not every indicator is overbought now, but many are near the high-end of their respective...

Another Bullish Pattern Target Achieved

Key Points: 1- With the SPX hitting the 5,900-target on Wednesday, it’s now the TENTH successful bullish...

11/7/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

The Opening Gap

Key Points: 1-    The early reaction to President Trump’s huge win last night is creating big gaps in...

Election Day Charts

Key Points: Today we’re looking at 10 election-related charts – none of which are related to polls, prediction...

Pre-Election Chart Setups

Key Points: 1- Since the breakout to new highs in September, the SPX has formed two trading boxes.  Box...

November'24

SPX – Key Monthly Stats – October -1.0% monthly loss   -Down 12/23 trading days -Negative...

November’24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies...

A Trend that Needs to Right Itself

Key Points: 1- Over the last eight trading days, the SPX has had negative breadth six times.  We break...

The Last 29 Days

Yesterday’s price action did very little to change the index’s technical complexion. In fact, we could...

One of the Quietest Months in 3 Years

Key Points: 1- With just two 1% absolute moves in October, it’s the second lowest monthly total of 2024...

Since the Last Breakout

Key Points: 1- It’s been 27 trading days since the SPX broke out from 5,650 on 9/19. We look at the key...

10/29/24 - Banks

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Week of 10/28/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term trading...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 10/25/24

Chart of the Week – 12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns Earlier in the week, we discussed...

12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns

Key Points: 1- We’re just about 12 months removed from the Oct’23 low. Since then, there have been NINE...

10/25/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Uptrend Traits

Good Closes One streak that no one is talking about extended on Tuesday: the SPX closed above its intra-day...

Uptrend Traits, Industrials & Vol

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s long streak without consecutive declines ended yesterday, but the index continues...

Sub-20% Breadth Days

Key Points: 1- The SPX ended yesterday with 16% stocks up for the session.  Since the Oct’23 low, it...

Six Straight Weekly Gains

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns...

Week of 10/21/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/18/24

Chart of the Week – NFLX  Within the Chart Trades report, we’ve started to do write ups for key...

10/18/24 - 2 Buys & Earnings

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red   For each...

Small Caps - Now vs. July

Key Points: 1- IWM broke out from the daily bullish pattern and has a target of 253.   2- The recent...

New Highs and a Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Key Points: 1- Yesterday, 114 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, which is the second most we’ve...

Strong Breadth & Stretched Sentiment

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged two straight 80% breadth days for the first time since three in...

10/15/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Week of 10/14/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/11/24

Chart of the Week – Tech Leadership Last week, Technology was the leading sector on both Tuesday...

US Dollar, Rates & Crude Oil

Key Points: 1- The US Dollar’s 10-day rate of change now is close to +2.9%, which is the biggest 10-day...

10/11/24 - 3 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Tech Leadership & Strong Breadth

Key Points: 1- The Technology sector led for the second straight day on Wednesday. The last time that...

Responding to 1% Declines

Responding to 1% Declines   As noted yesterday: “during the most intense trading periods in 2024, clusters...

The Response

Key Points: 1- The SPX followed a 1% decline with a 1% gain yesterday for the SIXTH time since last year’s...

Spotted – October Volatility

Key Points: 1-The SPX just went 20 trading sessions between 1% declines, which is the longest run between...

10/8/24 - 2 Buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Four Straight Up Weeks

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...

Week of 10/7/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/4/24

Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Opening Look piece,...

October 2024

Post Jobs Setup

Key Points: 1- Over the last 10 trading days, the SPX has alternated gains and losses, with the only...

Breakouts and Drawdowns

Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above its most recent pattern breakout zone (5,650), having moved sideways...

A Familiar Start

  A Familiar Start Even though the SPX avoided a 1% loss on Tuesday, the 93-bps decline was the...

Another Slow Start

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 93-bps loss on Tuesday was the worst in nearly a month (9/6).  Early monthly...

10/2/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

October and Q4’24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -Q4 Seasonality -Q4 studies   Monthly...

The Last 11 Months

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 11-month % gain is +36.8%. That’s the best 11-month run since the period...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/27/24

Chart of the Week – AAPL This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Chart Trades piece.  It was...

Hovering

Key Points: 1- From the September 6th low point, the SPX has gained nearly 7%.  This is only the fifth...

9/27/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Clusters of Big Gains - Revisited

Key Points: 1- In strong markets, clusters of big gains that happen after corrective action can eventually...

The S&P 500 vs. its RSI

If you haven’t heard, the SPX has been making new all-time highs for nearly a week, but its 14-day RSI...

RSI – Confirming or Diverging?

Key Points: 1- Overall, of the 11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs, just two are currently overbought – XLY Consumer...

Hanging Around

Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +6.2% from the September low and is hanging close to its recent all-time...

9/24/24 - 3 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Weekly Winning Streaks

Topics Covered:  Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...

Week of 9/23/24

Topics Covered:  Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/20/24

Chart of the Week –  Now vs. Spring’24 Currently, we’re still in the throes of an historically...

The Next Phase

Key Points: 1- The 1.7% advance now is the SPX’s third 1% gain of September and the fifth absolute 1%...

Two Bullish Pattern Breakouts

Key Points: 1- The SPX will be breaking out of the two bullish patterns we’ve been profiling on the open. ...

The Cut

Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged THREE winning streaks of at least seven in the last three months. ...

Top of the Range

Key Points: 1- The SPX’s six-day winning streak has been accompanied by closes near its intra-day highs....

9/17/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

Another Five-Day Winning Streak

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -5-day winning streaks -Big weekly gains -Weekly SPX charts -Live...

Week of 9/20/24

Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -5-day winning streaks -Big weekly gains -Weekly SPX charts -Live...

SPX Approaching a Key Level

  SPX Approaching a Key Level As we know, the market’s real move happened on Wednesday with the...

The New Range

Key Points: 1- The SPX has respected support at 5,400 and resistance at 5,650 the majority of time since...

9/13/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red  ...

Reversal

Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a huge positive reversal yesterday. We compare this one to others in the...

Another +40% VIX Week

Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Breadth -Put-call ratio -Retracements -VIX 40% weeks -VIX golden cross...

Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/6/24

Chart of the Week – SPX Short-Term The following chart and comments appeared in Friday’s Opening...

9/6/24

Market -Losing Streaks -Short-term -Breadth when Tech lags -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP          ...

Losing Streaks and Breadth

Key Points: –The SPX now is down three straight days.  The last losing streak longer than three...

This Trait Needs to Change

We recently discussed the rejuvenation of big moves over the last five weeks: 12 +/-1% moves in 24 trading...

Searching for a Good Close

Key Point: –Over the prior eleven trading sessions, the SPX has finished above its intra-day mid-point...

9/4/24 - 2 buys

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

A Familiar Start

Key Points -With yesterday’s big decline, the SPX now has logged 12 absolute 1% moves in the last 24...

September’24

Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -September Seasonality -Best Starts in...

Chart of the Week - 8/30/24

  March’23 Officially, Thursday’s move was a down day, which gave us two straight losses. ...

8/30/24

Market -March’23 -November’23 -Short-term -Trading Boxes -Live patterns -Potential patterns – bullish...

Most Volatile Month Since March'23

Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s negligible down move gave the SPX its first losing streak since the three...

NVDA

To get a true sense of NVDA’s momentum and trend, we must look at the stock on the weekly chart in log...

Late Summer Fireworks

Key Points: 1- The SPX has alternated gains and losses the last seven trading sessions after the eight-day...

8/29/24 - 2 buys + NVDA

For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red...

August 2024

Engulfed

Key Points: 1-The SPX logged its fourth bearish engulfing pattern of 2024 yesterday.  Short-term weakness...

The Next Trading Box

Topics Covered:     Market -Intra-day -Trading boxes -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP         ...

After the Spike

Key Points: 1- From the August 5th low through yesterday’s peak, the SPX gained approximately 9.9%. That’s...

The First Time Since June'23

Key Point: For the first time since June’23, the SPX has logged FIVE 1% gains in a calendar month....