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Opening Look
Breadth Divergences Grow
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels. 2-...
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Week of 6/17/24
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels. 2-...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 6/14/24
Chart of the Week – AAPL As we know, AAPL blasted back to new highs with one of its biggest two-day...
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Fear of New Highs
Key Points: 1- The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index hit the Fear Zone yesterday as the SPX made a...
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SPX: Three Live Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- With Wednesday’s opening gap and hold, the latest pattern breakout was confirmed. The...
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Double Jeopardy
Key Points: 1- The SPX sits at a new-all time high with a 14-day RSI of 67 ahead of today’s trading session. 2-...
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A Recent Trade Idea
ENPH is a risky and longer-term play. It’s had an extremely volatile downfall and subsequent comeback...
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6/11/24 - 3 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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Week of 6/10/24
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest...
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New Highs vs. Divergences
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 6/7/24
Chart of the Week – The SPX’s Latest Bullish Pattern The S&P 500 continues to extend...
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Chart Rundown
Topics Covered: Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst...
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6/7/24 - 2 buys, 1 short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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Winning Streaks, 1% Gains & Tech
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days, which is the NINTH winning streak of at least four...
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SPX Holding while Others Move
Key Points: 1- So far, things have played out in the short-term work as we’d expect after the last snapback. ...
Read MoreCappNotes
Losing Streaks & Drawdowns
Short Losing Streaks The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days in a while. Specifically,...
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Short Losing Streaks
Key Points: 1- The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days since the six-day downturn from...
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6/4/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreCappNotes
Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/31/24
Chart of the Week The following commentary appeared in Wednesday morning’s Opening Look piece. ...
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Spotted ➡ Rotation
Key Points: 1- Before yesterday, the last time the XLK lost 2% was on 4/30/24. The SPX had 11% advancing...
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The Last Three Days
Key Points: 1- There only have been three trading days since last Thursday’s bearish engulfing pattern,...
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The Market's Foundation
Key Points: 1- S&P 500 breadth has been sub-par recently, with negative internals now in 5/6, 6/8...
Read MoreCappNotes
Four SPX Charts
SPX Weekly Track If it felt like a back-and-forth week with ultimately no net movement in front of a...
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Five Week Win Streaks
Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second...
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Week of 5/28/24
Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/24/24
Chart of the Week – Bearish Engulfing Patterns The SPX logged a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday...
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After the Reversal
Key Points: 1- Given that the prior few days of price action all were tiny in comparison, the SPX’s reversal...
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5/24/24 - 3 Buys, 2 Shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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Now vs. Nov'23
Key Points: 1- There are similarities between the current comeback and November’23. See below. 2- A...
Read MoreCappNotes
Five Crypto Charts
Ethereum Let’s start with Ethereum’s massive 20% spike. As we know, speculation that an ETF is getting...
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Chart Rundown
Key Points: 1- Ethereum and Bitcoin’s huge moves have brought them closer to major pattern breakout attempts. 2-...
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Higher Highs & Higher Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX has a four-week gain of 6.77%. Since June’2020, it’s the 13th four-week gain...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/17/24
Chart of the Week – Successful Bullish Patterns The S&P 500 hit its sixth bullish pattern...
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CPI & Indicator Check Up
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading of 64. The last seven times the SPX...
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SPX, ARKK & NASDAQ Breadth
SPX Still Calm The SPX is coming off its best three-day and three-week advance of 2024, both of which...
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SPX Still Calm
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged it second negligible loss in the last four trading days. If bullish pattern...
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Best Three Weeks of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and...
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Best Three Weeks of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and...
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Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/10/24
Chart of the Week – Good Closes 🟢The SPX just closed above its intra-day mid-point for the 10th...
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Another Potential Bullish Pattern
Key Points: 1- The SPX is close to triggering another bullish pattern. There are currently two live bullish...
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Good Closes are Back
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point 10/13 trading sessions (77% of the time)....
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5/9/24 - Eight Bullish Bank Charts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
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Chart Rundown
Topics Covered: Key Charts -MAGS vs. SPX -KRE Regional banks -XLE Energy -XLU Utilities -XLY Cons Discretionary -EWJ...
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Best 3-Day Run… of 2024
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its second straight 1% gain yesterday – for the third time since the October...
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Three Important Next Steps
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its first 1% gain of May on Friday, which makes it four +/-1% moves in...
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Week Ending 5/3/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: XBI, SOCL –Worst...
Read MoreCappNotes
Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/3/24
Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range...
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Trading Boxes, Rallies and Failed Tops
Key Points: 1- Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range leads to one of two things...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Pattern Battle Continues
Key Points: 1- The SPX had seven +/-1% moves in April, the most since October. From January 2022 through...
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April'24 Performance & May Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Key Monthly Stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -After five straight up months end -May...
Read MoreOpening Look
Choose Your Bias
Key Points: 1- The SPX continues to trace out potential bullish and bearish patterns. See a lot more...
Read MoreCappNotes
Key Spot, Key Week
SPX The SPX capped off last week’s comeback with its second 1% gain of the week. Overall, we’ve seen...
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Key Spot, Key Week
Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% gains last week. There were at least two 1% gains during a calendar...
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Week Ending 4/26/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, KWEB –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
Another Good Close
Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its mid-point four straight days. This has been an about-face...
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Pattern Battle
Key Points: 1- The Nikkei 225 fell 1% last evening, thus, it failed to recapture its pattern breakdown...
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4/25/24 - 2 buys, 1 short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
Now vs. August'23
Key Points: 1- SPX had just a single 1% advance in 28 trading sessions before yesterday. We don’t need...
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Judging the Bounce
Key Points: 1- If we get some upside follow through, a MACD buy signal could be triggered soon. We last...
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The Field Holds
Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today with two key streaks: It has logged six straight down days but...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 4/19/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: JETS, KRE –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
New 52-Week Highs & Lows
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s number of new highs has been shrinking, and the number of new lows has been...
Read MoreOpening Look
Bearish Streaks
Key Points: 1- The SPX has EIGHT different streaks in play after yesterday, and they are all bearish....
Read MoreChart Trades
4/17/24 - 3 buys, 2 shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Next Bounce
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a three-day losing streak. The only streak longer than three since the...
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Another First
Key Points: 1-The SPX followed Friday’s 1.5% decline with a 1.2% loss on Monday – the first back-to-back...
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A Few Changes
Key Points: 1- From the point at which the SPX punctured its five-month uptrend line, it is down -2.1%. ...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 4/12/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: PALL, SIL –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
Uptrend Lines vs. Uptrends
Key Points: 1- The SPX breached its uptrend line from the October low last week, but it remains in a...
Read MoreOpening Look
Drawdowns, New High/Lows and Breadth
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current drawdown is -2.5%. That’s among the largest multi-day pullbacks since...
Read MoreOpening Look
CPI, SPX and Rates
Key Points: 1- Since the October’23 low, we’ve had five CPI reports. The SPX has been higher two weeks...
Read MoreOpening Look
Three Important Indicators
Key Points: 1- With the SPX still below the key uptrend line, there is a risk of it following through...
Read MoreOpening Look
What REALLY Changed?
Key Points: 1- The SPX followed last Thursday’s 1% loss with a 1% gain – this has happened five straight...
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March / Q1 Performance & April / Q2 Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Five straight up months -Patterns – March -Patterns...
Read MoreOpening Look
Two More Days
Key Points: 1- SPY ended yesterday below the VWAP line anchored to last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting for...
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The Most Bullish Trait
Key Points: 1- So far, the SPX has logged just three 1% moves in March (2 up and 1 down). This has continued...
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Stock Market Breadth
Key Points: 1- 77% of the S&P 500’s stocks advanced last week, which was the best weekly breadth...
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Week Ending 3/22/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, XHB –Worst...
Read MoreOpening Look
The Latest Breakout
Key Points: 1- The SPX broke out of its sixth bullish formation since the lows yesterday. It’s nearly...
Read MoreChart Trades
3/21/24 - 10 Bullish Chart Patterns
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
SPX & FOMC
Key Points: 1- We dissect the two-week periods following FOMC meetings since the October’23 low below. 2–...
Read MoreOpening Look
Trading Ranges & Momentum
Key Points: 1- Eight trading boxes have been resolved higher eight times since the October low. The SPX...
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Still Searching for Downside Follow Through
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown since the October lows remains at -2.6%, with the last one...
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Week Ending 3/15/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Weekly losing streaks –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreOpening Look
Testing the Line
Key Points: 1- The major difference between Thursday’s 30 bps decline and Wednesday’s 20 bps dip was...
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The Best Three Week Run
Key Points: 1- The S&P 500 has had positive market internals 70% of the time since the October 27...
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Strong Response
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has registered three absolute 1% moves (2 up, 1 down) in March at nearly the...
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A Winning Streak No One is Talking About
Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after the CPI report for four straight months before...
Read MoreChart Trades
03/12/24 - 2 Shorts
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
Four Straight Successful Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- Before rolling over on Friday, the SPX acquired its latest bullish pattern target of 5,180,...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 3/8/24
Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Channels –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...
Read MoreOpening Look
A Day Later
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged 14 1% gains vs. four 1% losses since the October low. 2-...
Read MoreOpening Look
AAPL vs. SPX: Most Oversold Ever
Key Points: 1- AAPL ranks 74/75 among the S&P 500’s Technology stocks YTD. 2- The AAPL/SPX relative...
Read MoreChart Trades
03/07/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
After a 1% Decline
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged four 1% losses since the October’23 lows – one each in December,...
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The First Time in 11 Weeks
Key Points: 1- For the first time in eleven weeks, more than 100 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs...
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February Performance & March Outlook
Topics Covered: -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – February -Patterns – March -March Seasonality -After...
Read MoreOpening Look
An Extra Day
Key Points: 1- The SPX has outperformed its historical bias in January and February (with one day left)....
Read MoreOpening Look
Rallies & Drawdowns
Key Points: 1- The SPX has gained 24% from the 10/27/23 low to the most recent 2/23/24 high. Along the...
Read MoreChart Trades
Chart Trades - 02/27/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 2/23/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs:...
Read MoreOpening Look
Another Pattern Breakout
Key Points: 1- A new bullish pattern was triggered yesterday for the SPX: target 5,180. 2- The big move...
Read MoreOpening Look
Not Yet...
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s hold yesterday produced a higher low vs. the 2/14 low point, which keeps the...
Read MoreOpening Look
Watch this Trendline
Key Points: 1– The SPX hasn’t had more than two straight negative breadth sessions since four in...
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The Staircase Advance
Key Points: 1– A new potential bullish pattern has been building for the SPX after the bounce back. ...
Read MoreOpening Look
No Downside Follow Through
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% declines since the 10/27/23 low, and each one has been immediately...
Read MoreChart Trades
02/14/24 - 4 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
Nothing has Changed Yet
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown got to -2.6% at yesterday’s low, which now is the largest peak-to-trough...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 2/9/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum,...
Read MoreOpening Look
5 Factors Driving the Market Higher
Key Points: We review each of these below: 1-Good closes 2-Short daily streaks of negative breadth 3-Small...
Read MoreChart Trades
02/08/24 - 2 buys
For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each...
Read MoreOpening Look
Milestones
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s eventual first push above 5k has a high probability of being revisited if history...
Read MoreOpening Look
Before and After the Big Daily Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX has had just two 1% declines in the last 71 trading days. Over that same time,...
Read MoreOpening Look
New Highs vs. New Lows
Key Points: 1- On 12/14/24, 107 S&P 500 holdings made new 52-week highs, which was the high mark...
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Three Straight 1% Moves
Key Points: 1- The SPX finished last week with three straight absolute 1% moves, which last happened...
Read MorePostScript
January Performance & February Outlook
Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – January -Patterns – February -February...
Read MoreOpening Look
Two Potential Bearish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had two 1% declines in the last 64 trading days. 2- We’re watching...
Read MoreOpening Look
FOMC, SPX & the 10-Year Yield
Key Points: 1- Over the last two years, there have been 16 FOMC decisions. Eight times the SPX was lower...
Read MoreOpening Look
Another Target Hit
Key Points: 1- The SPX achieved its latest pattern target of 4,920 on Monday, logging its fourth best...
Read MoreOpening Look
Drawdowns, Breadth & Bullish Patterns
Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown has been -2.4% since the October lows despite plenty of potential...
Read MorePostScript
Week Ending 1/26/24
Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks 2021-24 –Best 20...
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