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# CappThesis

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- [Home](https://cappthesis.com/) - For the last 25 years, CappThesis Founder, Frank Cappelleri, has been creating daily market commentary for the world's most successful financial institutions.
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- [Group Plans](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=elementor-single-page-4364) - Subscriber Packages Monthly ANNUALLY Annual Savings TRADER $199 PER MONTH Opening Look –Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels 5 EMAILS PER WEEK Subscribe Now PROFESSIONAL $599 PER MONTH Opening Look –Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the
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- [Default Kit](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=default-kit)
- [TEMPLATE 2025](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=template-2025) - 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
- [RM OL 2025-03-24](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2025-03-24) - Steep Downtrend Line BreaksSimply by moving sideways over the past few days, the SPX finally broke through the steep downtrend line that had defined its price action since the mid-February top. So far, it has NOT been the same kind of immediate about-face we saw back in August. As a reminder, those three straight 1%
- [Register Starter](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=elementor-single-page-4372) - Starter Opening Look 2 Emails Per Week Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels Starter membership: $499/yr First Name:* First Name Required Last Name:* Last Name Required Investor Type:* Investor Type is Required InstitutionFinancial AdvisorIndividual How
- [Register Page Starter Lineup March 2025](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=register-page-starter-lineup-march-2025) - Starter Opening Look 2 Emails Per Week Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels
- [Register Professional Quarterly](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=elementor-single-page-5829) - Professional Opening Look Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels Road Map Thorough performance review and charts preview every week, month and quarter. Breaking Out Short-form video analysis. 1-2 videos a week. Monthly Webinars Long-form market
- [Signup Page Lineup March 2025](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=signup-page-lineup-march-2025) - Professional Opening Look Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels Road Map Thorough performance review and charts preview every week, month and quarter. Breaking Out Short-form video analysis. 1-2 videos a week. Monthly Webinars Long-form market
- [Product Lineup March 2025](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=product-lineup-march-2025) - PRODUCT LINEUP Opening Look Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies and Chart Trades – stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels Roadmap Thorough performance review and charts preview every week, month and quarter. Breaking Out Short-form video analysis. 1-2 videos a week. Monthly Webinars Long-form market
- [RM - OL - 2025-03-17](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2025-03-17) - SPX Weekly Track After 4-Week Losing Streaks The SPX just recorded its fourth consecutive weekly loss, matching the four-week decline from July–August 2024. Historically, the index has shown strong performance in the two weeks following extended losing streaks. According to marketcharts.com, since 2005, there have been 17 non-overlapping instances of four-week losing streaks. Over
- [RM - OL - 2025-03-10](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2025-03-10) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Channel The SPX just logged its third straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since the four-week slide in July–August 2024. Considering that the drawdown (now at -8%) is the biggest since that same period, this isn’t surprising. On the weekly chart, the index has now dropped to the
- [OL - CN - 2025-03-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ol-cn-2025-03-05) - Key Points Volatility surged on Tuesday, with a gap lower, a sharp +2.3% intraday rally that briefly turned the index positive, and a complete unraveling in the final half hour. For most of the session, it looked like a classic Turnaround Tuesday, but once again, the news cycle proved more powerful than market forces.
- [RM OL 2025-02-24](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2025-02-24) - SPX Weekly Track Friday Friday’s deluge turned a small weekly gain into a sizable daily and weekly decline. Overall, Fridays haven’t been kind to the SPX so far in 2025, per Ryan Detrick of Carson Group. Mondays haven’t either… Overall, the SPX lost over 1.5% and closed on its weekly lows for the
- [OL - CN - 2025-02-20](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ol-cn-2025-02-20) - Key PointsThe combination of a tepid gain alongside strong supportive breadth continued on Wednesday, pushing the SPX to a fresh all-time high. This has further extended the index’s breakout from its most recent pattern. Today, we’re focusing on the two most important uptrend traits: successful bullish patterns and sailed bearish patterns. Uptrend TraitsAs
- [RM - OL 2025-02-18](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2025-02-18) - SPX Weekly Track Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was the SPX’s resilience in the face of hotter inflation numbers, snapping a modest two-week losing streak. The index also posted its first 1% advance since mid-January, rebounding from the middle-dotted line of its long-term trading channel again—a key demand zone since early 2024. While
- [CT - 2025-02-14](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ct-2025-02-14) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts ADP, QCOM, GDDY Update AMZN Watch list BRK.B, EYE, KEYS, TJX As we’ll discuss
- [Ops - 2025-02-14](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ops-2025-02-14) - Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain since 1/17 on Thursday, which was 17 trading days ago. That was the longest run without one since 30 straight from 11/7/24 through 12/19/24. It’s also the first 1% absolute move of February, an obviously slower pace thus far compared to the SIX (3 up, 3
- [OL - CN  - 2025-02-04](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ol-cn-2025-02-04) - Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an initial 2% decline into a 76-bps loss. The index finished near its intra-day highs again, which was its fifth close above the intra-day mid-point in the last six sessions. This also was the fourth straight
- [stocks - CN](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=stocks-cn) - META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday in response to it. In total, the stock now is riding a nine-day winning streak, which is the second longest in its history: In late September 2015, it was up 11 straight. We’ll recall that happened during a snapback between
- [OL - CN](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=ol-cn) - Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings advancing, which hasn’t happened in at least 30 years. Intra-Day The SPX logged its fifth gain in the last six days to start the four-day week, closed on its highs, had its best breadth (83% advancing stocks)
- [RM - OL](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol-2) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held on for its second 1% gain of the week on Friday despite the late-day sell-off. The last time we had two 1% advances in a calendar week was election week (election day and the day after). The late day sell-off prevented the index
- [Roadmap - 2025-01a](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=roadmap-2025-01a) - SPX Weekly Track 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
- [Opening Look - 2025-01](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-2025-01) - 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
- [RoadMap - Monthly - 2025-01](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=roadmap-monthly-2025-01) - The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged Monthly Breadth The SPX Best & Worst 20 The SPX x x x x
- [Opening Look - 2024-12](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-2024-12) - Key Point d Topics Covered d 3 3 3 3 3 3 Live Patterns 3 SPY AVWAP 3 Daily Price Action 3 Sector ETFs 3 Breadth SPX Best and Worst 20 ETFs 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
- [Roadmap - 2024-12](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=roadmap-2024-12) - Topics Covered: SPX Weekly Track 3 3 3 3 Live Patterns With the long-term target being hit, we’re left with two live bullish patterns to start the week: targets 6,180 and 6,200. SPY AVWAP Daily Price Action Sector ETFs Breadth SPX Best and Worst 20
- [RM - OL](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=rm-ol) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance Key Charts -US Dollar -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF -NDX -XLY Consumer Discretionary -ARKK -Bitcoin SPX Weekly Track
- [Product Lineup 10-25-24](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=product-lineup-10-25-24) - PRODUCT LINEUP Opening Look Daily pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies & actionable chart setups. Chart Trades Stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels. 1-2 emails a week. Roadmap Thorough performance review and charts preview every week, month and quarter. Breaking Out Short-form video analysis. 1-2
- [Register Free](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=elementor-single-page-616) - Free Membership CappNotesMarket observations, chart of the week and content wrap. Two emails a week. Sign up today for free! First Name:* First Name Required Last Name:* Last Name Required Investor Type:* Investor Type is Required InstitutionFinancial AdvisorIndividual How did you hear about us?:* How did you hear about us? is Required Select OneBarron'sTwitterLinkedInYouTubeReferralCNBCOther Email:*
- [Register Starter - Monthly](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=elementor-single-page-13678) - Starter Chart TradesStock trade ideas with specific entry and exit levels. 1-2 emails a week. Starter membership: $49/month First Name:* First Name Required Last Name:* Last Name Required Investor Type:* Investor Type is Required InstitutionFinancial AdvisorIndividual How did you hear about us?:* How did you hear about us? is Required Select OneBarron'sTwitterLinkedInYouTubeReferralCNBCOther Email:* Invalid Email
- [Plans Page 8/6/24](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=plans-page-8-6-24) - Subscriber Packages CappThesis clients receive daily market content, augmented by in-depth videos and a weekend wrap up. Monthly ANNUALLY Annual Savings FREE $0 CappNotes – Market observations, chart of the week and content wrap. Two emails a week. Subscribe now STARTER $49 PER MONTH Chart Trades – Stock trade ideas with specific entry and exit
- [hp product lineup 8/6/24](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=hp-product-lineup-8-6-24) - PRODUCT LINEUP Opening Look Daily pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major asset classes, indices and ETFs, with studies & actionable chart setups. Chart Trades Market observations, chart of the week and content wrap. Two emails a week. Roadmap Thorough performance review and charts preview every week, month and quarter. Breaking Out Short-form video analysis. 1-2
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- [Home - July 14 2024](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=home-july-14-2024) - Giving active investors a competitive edge through proven market insight. For the last 25 years, CappThesis Founder, Frank Cappelleri, has been creating daily market commentary for some of the world’s most successful financial institutions. Subscribe Now CappThesis clients receive daily market content, augmented by in-depth videos and a weekend wrap up. PRODUCT LINEUP Opening Look
- [Group Plans Pricing July 2024](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=group-plans-pricing-july-2024) - FREE $0 CappNotes – Market observations, chart of the week and content wrap. Two emails a week. Subscribe now STARTER $49 PER MONTH Opening Look – Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing the major market indices, breadth, performance studies & actionable chart set ups. Subscribe Now PROFESSIONAL $189 PER MONTH Opening Look – Pre-market strategy piece, analyzing
- [CappNotes - Friday - 2024-07](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cappnotes-friday-2024-07) - Chart of the Week – So far in Interviews, articles and social media C CappNotes Tuesday CappThesis Premium Content S
- [Chart Trades - 2024-07](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades-2024-07) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue d Bullish Pattern Breakouts A P P P Buy the dip in an uptrend F Bearish Pattern
- [CN Temp 2024-06-18](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cn-temp-2024-06-18) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels. 2- The NASDAQ adv-dec line has dropped back to its April lows as the NASDAQ Composite continues to make new highs. 3- The S&P 100 index’s adv-dec line is diverging from the index for
- [Chart Trades - 2024-06](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades-2024-06) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue d Bullish Pattern Breakouts A P P P Buy the dip in an uptrend F Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
- [CappNotes Temp](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cappnotes-temp) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days since the six-day downturn from 4/12 – 4/19/24. 2- When successive down days remain contained, up-trending price action results. 3 – Yesterday’s late-day comeback helped the SPX’s most recent bullish pattern remain alive. The index starts today 1.1% above
- [Roadmap - MONTHLY - 2024-06](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=roadmap-monthly-2024-06) - Topics Covered: SPX – Key Monthly Stats Patterns The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged Monthly SPX Chart The SPX now has been up three of the last four months, which is the best run since the seven-month win streak from February – August’21. Studies The SPX
- [Roadmap - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=roadmap-2024-05) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX Weekly Track The SPX Weekly dd The The The The Live Patterns While Potential Patterns While SPY AVWAP We ca Daily Price Action As noted be Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and
- [Op Look - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=op-look-2024-05) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX The SPX The SPX The SPX The SPX The SPX The Live Patterns While Potential Patterns While SPY AVWAP We ca Daily Price Action As noted be Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best
- [CappNotes - Tuesday - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cappnotes-tuesday-2024-05) - SPX The S Updat k k Lorem Lorem Lorem
- [Op Look - Chart Rundown - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=op-look-chart-rundown-2024-05) - Key Points: Topics Covered: Daily Price Action As noted be Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and Worst 20 ETFs The l RSP RSP XLK XLK’s rec XLU XLU’s crash XBI Biotech Yesterd CORN The CORN ET CORN The CORN ET CORN
- [Op + Post - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=op-post-2024-05) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX The The The The The The Live Patterns While Potential Patterns While SPY AVWAP We ca Daily Price Action As noted be Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and Worst 20 ETFs The l
- [Temp temp](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=temp-temp) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged it second negligible loss in the last four trading days. If bullish pattern breakouts are going to start working again, we’ll see fewer whipsaws, i.e., the big daily moves will return to being infrequent. 2- So far, the major indices have remained calm despite meme stocks spiking again.
- [CappNotes - 2024-5a](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cappnotes-2024-5a) - Chart of the Week –
- [PostScript - Monthly - 2024-05](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-monthly-2024-05) - Topics Covered: SPX – Key Monthly Stats Patterns The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged Monthly SPX Chart The SPX now has been up three of the last four months, which is the best run since the seven-month win streak from February – August’21. Studies The SPX logged
- [CappNotes - 2024-04](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=cappnotes-2024-04) - SPX The SPX capped off last week’s comeback with its second 1% gain of the week. Overall, we’ve seen at least two 1% gains during a calendar week happen three separate times since the October 27th low point. That includes the THREE in four days to kick things off between 10/30 and 11/2. As is
- [Breaking Out - 2024-4b](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=breaking-out-2024-4b) - Market -Bearish streaks -The field holds -RSP vs. SPX -NDX -6-day losing streaks -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -Nikkei 225 -IPO -XLC
- [PostScript - Quarterly](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-quarterly) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX Monthly Track The SPX logged si Monthly SPX Chart The SPX now has been up three of the last four months, which is the best run since the seven-month win streak from February – August’21. Patterns The SPX logged The SPX logged The SPX logged Seasonality The
- [PostScript - 2024-03a](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2024-03a) - Topics Covered: – Weekly Performance SPX The Weekly Breadth SPX – fifth straight week of positive weekly breadth. NDX – It was best ratio since 12/22/23 – also 70%, but the index saw more stocks move down 5% vs. advance 5% this past week. SPX Breadth NDX Breadth Best 20 The
- [PostScript - MONTHLY - 2024-03](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-monthly-2024-03) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX Monthly Track The SPX logged si Monthly SPX Chart The SPX now has been up three of the last four months, which is the best run since the seven-month win streak from February – August’21. Studies The SPX logged Studies The SPX logged Breadth Nearly 80%
- [PostScript - 2024-02-26 - A](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2024-02-26-a) - Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs: AMLP, EWI –Worst 20 ETFs: HACK, PBW –Major Indices: MDY, IWM –Sectors: XLY, XLU –Style: IWD, IWS –Industries: MSOS, KRE –Foreign Markets: EUFN, VNM –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX got back
- [Chart Trades - 2024](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades-2024) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
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- [Chart Trades - IDEAS Only - 2023-11-27](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades-ideas-only-2023-11-27) - Observations With New Potential Buys: Symbol We Symbol C New Potential Shorts: Symbol Q Symbol Q Here’s
- [Opening Look - 2023-11-10](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-2023-11-10) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX: The The The The The The Patterns While The i SPY AVWAP We ca Daily Price Action As noted be Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and Worst 20 ETFs The l RSP RSP
- [Chart Trades - 2023-11-01](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades-2023-11-01) - Observations With Update – Buys JPM Update – Shorts DIS a TD was Watch list shorts PENN . No New Buys We have t New Short Idea: WB Similar to .
- [PostScript - 2023-10-21](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2023-10-21) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX -3% Weekly Performance SPX Last week, t Eleven -3% w From a Weekly Market Map SPX Breadth Breadth NDX Breadth Breadth Best 20 The DJIA Worst 20 The DJIA Major Indices The DJIA S&P 500 Sectors All 11 Sector ETFs Style The IWO Small
- [Chart Trades](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=chart-trades) - COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on a new highs screen doesn’t tell us too much. Its chart does. COST is among the first stock in the S&P 500 to have returned to its July high, and it has done so by forming
- [Opening Look - October - C](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-october-c) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX: The The The The The The Patterns While The i SPY AVWAP We ca Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and Worst 20 ETFs The l RSP RSP XLK XLK’s rec XLU XLU’s crash
- [PostScript - 2023-10 (no stocks)](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2023-10-no-stocks) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX -3% Weekly Performance SPX Last week, t Eleven -3% w From a Weekly Market Map Breadth Breadth Best 20 The DJIA Worst 20 The DJIA Major Indices The DJIA S&P 500 Sectors All 11 Sector ETFs Style The IWO Small Cap Growth ETF dropped
- [Opening Look - 2023-10a](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-2023-10a) - Key Points: 1- T Topics Covered: -Pat SPX: The Patterns While The i SPY AVWAP We ca Breadth As noted be Sector ETFs Ho Best and Worst 20 ETFs The l RSP RSP At its lows RSP & Yester XLK XLK’s rec Thus, the XLU XLU’s crash XBI
- [Opening Look - 2023-10](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=opening-look-2023-10) - Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced near last week. 2- The RSP Equal Weight ETF was down 1.1% yesterday vs. the +0.1% move for the SPX. That puts RSP closer to its own downside target, as it’s now nearly to -11% from its
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- [LAST LICKS - August, 2023-b](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-august-2023-b) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Performance Patterns The Breadth Breadth Sector ETFs 10/11 Sect Best and Worst 20 ETFs It was the N Wi S d U The Zs ZROZ’s Ne The n
- [LAST LICKS - 2023-08](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-2023-08) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – NVDA – SMH – US Dollar – ZROZ -20-Day Lows Performance The back-and-forth movement continued on Wednesday, and this time, it was to the upside. For the second time in three days, Growth led, and the
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- [LAST LICKS - 2023-05-02 (Leaders/Laggards)](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-2023-05-02-leaders-laggards) - Topics Reviewed: 1- 1-Performance The 2-Patterns The 3-Breadth & Style The 4-Sectors 5/11 One of 5- Best and Worst 20 ETFs ETFs UP at least 1%: Our E 6- 7- 8- 9- 10-
- [POSTSCRIPT - 2023-05 - MONTHLY](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2023-05-monthly) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX Monthly Track The SPX logged si Monthly SPX Chart The SPX now has been up three of the last four months, which is the best run since the seven-month win streak from February – August’21. Studies The SPX logged Studies The SPX logged Monthly Market Map
- [POSTSCRIPT - 2023-04 (Best, Worst)](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2023-04-best-worst) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX -3% Weekly Performance SPX Last week, t Eleven -3% w From a Weekly Market Map Breadth Breadth Best 20 The DJIA Worst 20 The DJIA Major Indices The DJIA S&P 500 Sectors All 11 Sector ETFs Style The IWO Small Cap Growth ETF dropped
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- [Morning Trends - BLANK - 2023-03](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=morning-trends-blank-2023-03) - Key Points: 1- The Topics Covered: 1- B SPX: The SPX . Combined, t Putting Here’s On a short- Patterns We’re s A bigger But if we do see an But if we do see an Breadth Another k Indicators Lastly, seeing the SPX.
- [PostScript - MONTHLY](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-monthly) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX After a +6% January 2- Monthly SPX 3- Monthly Breadth 4- NDX, DJIA 5- XLY, XLU 6- SPHB High Beta, MTUM Momentum 7- ARKK, IHF HC Providers 8- TSLA, ENPH 9- EWW Mexico, TUR Turkey 10- ZROZ Zero Coupons, HYG High Yield 11- URA Uranium, UNG Natural Gas 12- UUP US
- [Last Licks - BLANK](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-blank) - Topics Reviewed: 1- 1-Performance The SPX 2-Patterns With 3-Breadth & Style D 4-Sectors All 1 X 5- Af 6- d 7- d 8- d 9- d 10- d
- [Last Licks - 2023-02-08](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-2023-02-08) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- KIE Insurance 6- GREK Greece 7- OIH Oil Services 8- NDX 100 9- SKYY Cloud 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance The SPX’s reaction to Powell’s short afternoon speech provided plenty of fireworks, with price action ultimately ending higher. The total movement was
- [PostScript - 2022-12-WEEKLY](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2022-12-weekly) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX -3% weeks study 2- Breadth 3- DJIA 4- XLE Energy and XLRE Real Estate 5- IWO Small Cap Growth vs. IWF Large Cap Growth 6- SMH Semis, SMH vs. SPX 7- NVR 8- MMM 3M 9- EWD Sweden 10- 10-Year Yield 11- GLD Gold 12- FXY Japanese Yen 13- Bitcoin Weekly
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- [Last Licks - 2023-02](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-2023-02) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX’s performance, s/t RSI 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- XLC Comm Services 6- VIX and US Dollar 7- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 8- XLF Financials 9- NDX 10- Top Performers 1-Performance The SPX started February with a bang, reacting to the 25 bps hike and accompanying commentary
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- [Breaking Out - 2023-01](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=breaking-out-2023-01) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1-SPX: consecutive down years 2-SPX: Patterns 3-SPX: 20 Day MA crosses under 50-Day MA 4-Breadth 5-Sectors: XLE, XLRE, XLU 6-KWEB China Internet 7-SKYY Cloud 8-GXG Colombia 9-TUR Turkey 10-S&P 500 Stocks: HAL 11-S&P 500 Stocks: ANSS
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- [Last Licks 12/1/22](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-12-1-22) - Topics Reviewed: SPX’s Performance, patterns, breadth, XLP Consumer Staples, XLV Healthcare, XLI Industrials, XLB Materials, VIX, ARKK, SIL Silver Miners, New 20-Day Lows and SOYB (SOYB).] 1-Performance The SPX logged its 59th 1% loss of the year today (rounded to the nearest tenth), but it was the first one since November 9th, a rather long
- [PostScript - 2022-11](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-2022-11) - Key Points 1-In today’s piece, we look at what October’s 8% gain means from various perspectives. The stats are bullish for November overall looking back 50+ years, even after a big October. 2-The concern is that we’ve yet to see follow through in 2022. The SPX hasn’t witnessed consecutive monthly gains since logging seven straight
- [PostScript - WEEKLY - 2022 - Oct](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-weekly-2022-oct) - Topics Covered: SPX’s 9 straight +/-1% weekly moves, NDX, XLV, IWP SMH, CPB, MPWR, TUR, ZROZ, SLV, US Dollar & Ethereum Weekly Performance SPX The SPX’s historic back and forth week ended with a 1.5% decline. While that doesn’t stand out in isolation, it was the index’s NINTH straight weekly move of at least 1%,
- [PostScript WEEKLY](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-weekly) - Topics Covered: SPX performance, breadth, MDY, XLE, DVY, KIE, WYNN, SEDG, VEU, 10-Year Yield, Crude Oil, US Dollar & Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX’s three-week losing streak ended last week, with those consecutive 2.5% gains on Monday and Tuesday producing explosive positive breadth readings. However, the about-face forced the index to finish near
- [PostScript Template Month & Qtr](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-template-month-qtr) - Topics Covered: Full September and 3Q review Plus: SPX: consecutive monthly losses, monthly and quarterly breadth Long-term of charts: IWM, XLV, MTUM, SOCL, LLY, LUMN, EWW, 10-YR Yield, Corn, US Dollar & Bitcoin 3Q Performance SPX The SPX is coming off its second straight down month and its third straight down quarter. The last 3-month
- [Logos 2](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=logos-2)
- [Logos 1](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=logos-1)
- [Brian Test Template (DELETE)](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=brian-test-template-delete) - Topics Covered: SPX, DJIA, XLE, VTI, GIS, APA, EWZ, IGOV, URA, UUP, Bitcoin, WEAT, MSOS, Breadth 5-Day Performance SPX Last wee Weekly Breadth Major Indices S&P 500 Sectors Style S&P 500 Best & Worst 20 Consumer Staples dominated the outperformers last week, with GIS being the only component
- [PostScript Template Frank](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-template-frank) - Topics Covered: SPX, DJIA, XLE, VTI, GIS, APA, EWZ, IGOV, URA, UUP, Bitcoin, WEAT, MSOS, Breadth 5-Day Performance SPX Last week, the SPX logged its fourth weekly decline of at least -3% in the last five weeks. Since 1970, this only has happened FOUR other times. Of those prior four, the SPX was up
- [Morning Trends Template](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=morning-trends-template) - Key Points: 1-SPX: Being oversold in a downtrend is a MUCH different scenario vs. being oversold in an uptrend. The latter is ripe for dip buying. The former is not. 2-S&P 500 stocks: 129/502 components (26%) are oversold as of last night’s close. Another 130 names have RSI readings between 31-35. Potentially seeing 50% or
- [PostScript Template](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=postscript-template) - Topics Covered: SPX, DJIA, XLE, VTI, GIS, APA, EWZ, IGOV, URA, UUP, Bitcoin, WEAT, MSOS, Breadth 5-Day Performance SPX Last week, the SPX logged its fourth weekly decline of at least -3% in the last five weeks. Since 1970, this only has happened FOUR other times. Of those prior four, the SPX was up
- [Last Licks Template](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=last-licks-template) - Topics Reviewed: SPX Performance, Patterns, Breadth, SPYG, XLC, EWZ, ZROZ, SLV, UUP, PEJ, JETS, EEM, Relative Volume 1-Performance The SPX’s intra-day chart says it all, with the first, second and third moves all providing ferocious whipsaws before the bottom gave way. Coming into the session, many observers noted the propensity to bounce on Fed days
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- [New Product Lineup 1](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=new-product-lineup-1) - Morning Trends Comprehensive pre-market analysis of various indices, ETFs, stocks and other asset classes. Last Licks Late afternoon note, focusing on 10 key themes from the trading day. Post Script Thorough performance review and charts preview for each week, month and quarter.
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- [Post Section](https://cappthesis.com/?elementor_library=post-section) - NEWSLETTERS September 16, 2022 Morning Trends 1% Declines and Bearish Patterns Main Points: 1-The SPX has had two 1% declines so far this week. The index only has logged THREE or more… Read More September 15, 2022 Morning Trends Looking for a Better Effort Main Points: 1-After losses of at least -1%, the SPX has
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## Newsletters

- [Felt Like a Fed Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/felt-like-a-fed-day/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- KRE Regional Banks 7- IHF HC Providers 8- ETFs – New 52-Wk Highs 9- XHB Home Builders 10- XLI Industrials 1-Performance The intra-day chart says it all, and while the late afternoon spike didn’t
- [The Real Reaction](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-real-reaction-2/) - Key Points: 1- Seeing the 10-Year Yield move materially higher into the next FOMC meeting would encourage Powell to raise another 25 bps… and vice versa. 2- The SPX has been overbought now for three straight days. While not sustainable, this is not close to the longest overbought streaks we’ve seen in recent years. See
- [Framing the Pullback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/framing-the-pullback/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Thursday trying to avoid its first 4-day losing streak since May 1-4. So far in 2023, there’s only been two of them – the other happened from 2/16 – 2/22. 2- It’s been 19 trading days since the last 1% decline, which last occurred on 5/23. The SPX
- [Week Ending 6/16/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-6-16-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks, Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SOYB Soybeans –Worst 20 ETFs: TUR Turkey –Major Indices: NDX 100 –Sectors: XLK Tech & XLI Industrials –Style: DVY Dividends –Industries: IHI Medical Devices –Stocks: BALL, POOL, COF, SYF –Foreign Markets: EPU Peru –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: UNG Natural
- [Big Weekly Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-weekly-moves/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX could log its second 3% weekly move this week of 2023. For some context: in 2022, the index had 21 weekly moves of at least 3% (10 up, 11 down). In 2021, it had two – one of each. 2- The SPX logged its third 1% gain of June yesterday.
- [One Way](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-way/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Volatility 10 MA of VIX < 15 since 1990 VIX vs. highly correlated years VIX Seasonality SPX: Chart Patterns 14-Day RSI Deep Dive Potential blueprint +/-1% Moves Internals Sector Performance & Breadth Sector Focus XLI Industrials ETFs Leaders & Laggards DJIA KRE Regional Banks
- [The Expected Pause](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-expected-pause/) - Key Points: 1- Since last July, the 10-Year Yield was noticeably lower two weeks after a FOMC decision date only once: after the November 2, 2022 meeting. 2- The SPX starts today coming off its fourth straight advance. The last longer streak was EIGHT straight in the period ending November 8th, 2021. 3- The SPX’s
- [Broad Participation](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/broad-participation/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- XBI Biotech 7- PBW Clean Energy 8- XME Metals & Mining 9- Precious Metals 10- TUR Turkey 1-Performance The SPX logged its fourth straight gain on Tuesday, holding the CPI-induced gap in front of
- [Oscillating Between CPI Dates](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/oscillating-between-cpi-dates/) - Key Points: 1- Since November’22, the SPX has alternated gains and losses in the four-week periods between CPI release dates. The index, of course, is higher now than it was last month. 2- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to overbought territory yesterday for the first time since last August, making it the most stretched the
- [Growth Leads in front of CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/growth-leads-in-front-of-cpi/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- XLY Consumer Discretionary 7- OIH Oil Services 8- QQQJ NASDAQ Next Gen 9- RSP Equal Wgt SPX 10- JETS Airlines 1-Performance It was a quiet advance until nearly 3:00, when the bid grew stronger
- [Biggest Week Since mid-December](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/biggest-week-since-mid-december/) - Key Points: 1- The last time both CPI and the FOMC occurred during the same week was December’22– CPI on 12/13 an FOMC on 12/14. The SPX endured a weekly loss of nearly 3.4% that week. 2- The SPX has been flirting with the 4,300 zone lately, which is similar to how it was testing
- [Week Ending 6/9/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-6-9-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: GXG Colombia –Worst 20 ETFs: VIX –Major Indices: IWC Micro Caps –Sectors: XLY Consumer Discretionary –Style: PSP Private Equity –Industries: KRE Regional Banks –Stocks: NCLH, CZR, DISH, NWL –Foreign Markets: GREK Greece –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-4/) - Key Points: 1- From trough to peak, the SPX is +23% in about seven months. It logged a near 20% advance over the eight-week bear-market rally from last summer. 2- While the DJIA hasn’t broken out, it’s close to completing a short-term cup and handle pattern. 3- GLD, GDX, SLV and SIL all have been
- [The Momentum Divergence](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-momentum-divergence/) - Key Points The S&P 500 made a new all-time high on Wednesday, but unlike the prior session, it failed to hold those gains, with the final four hours of trading turning decisively negative and the index closing at its lows. While this pullback did not materially damage the chart, a few factors deserve our
- [Three for Three](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-for-three/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third straight gain to start the year, finished near its intra-day highs and closed at a new all-time high, as well. All of this allowed the index to extend further from its most recent pattern breakout zone, which it will now attempt to remain clear of as the
- [The Most New 52-Week Highs Since Nov’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-new-52-week-highs-since-nov24/) - Key PointsThe S&P 500 is two-for-two to start 2026, following last Friday’s small gain with a stronger showing on Monday. While the index finished off its intra-day high point, a notable number of components pushed to new 52-week highs. In fact, 64 stocks hit new highs — the most in over a year — which
- [January 2026](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january-2026/) - SPX – The long monthly winning streak is over The S&P 500’s seven-month winning streak was halted in December — just barely at -0.05% — following the four-day slide that closed out both the month and the year. Even so, it marked one of the index’s longest such streaks since 2017. The last time a
- [After a Bad Breadth Session](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-a-bad-breadth-session/) - Last Five Trading Days The S&P 500 concluded 2025 with its fourth straight decline, with the 73-bp loss marking the worst single-day drop since 12/17/25. This move kept the recent string of lower highs in play and pulled the index back below its most recent pattern breakout zone, which we’ll touch on below. Key
- [Patterns Worked Again in 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/patterns-worked-again-in-2025/) - Key Points Today, we’ll revisit the most recent pattern breakouts, discuss how bullish patterns have worked — and why they worked — throughout 2025, and touch on the short-term technical setup as we close out the holiday trading period. We’ll also review several key ETFs and highlight one particularly important trend to watch as
- [Strong Breadth & Santa](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-breadth-santa/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third straight day of gains to start the holiday-shortened week and continues to grind higher toward its all-time highs. Today we’ll discuss how strong underlying breadth compares to a year ago. We’ll also take a few minutes to talk about the Santa Claus rally, which is actually an
- [Week of 12/22/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-12-22-25/) - Key Points The SPX starts Christmas week coming off two gains of at least 80 bps. On Friday, the index closed at its highs and is now sitting near short-term resistance from 12/15 (last Monday). There continue to be multiple bullish patterns either already in play or close to triggering in key areas, some of
- [The Tech Dent](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-tech-dent/) - Key Points The SPX logged its fourth straight decline and second 1% loss in four days, putting a dent in the bullish patterns we’ve been tracking. We’ll break this down, discuss the short-term setup, and review the latest MACD sell signal in today’s market section. Last 5 Trading Days Daily Price Action – Big
- [Testing the 50-DMA Again](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/testing-the-50-dma-again/) - Key Points The S&P 500 fell for the third straight day, marking its longest losing streak since a four-day decline from November 13–18. This hasn’t caused much technical damage yet. In today’s market section, we look at the S&P 500 relative to its key moving averages, along with a recent negative divergence in the
- [Bullish Patterns & Sentiment](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-sentiment/) - Key Points The recent string of intra-day lower highs continued on Monday, with the SPX logging its second straight decline. Yesterday’s pullback was much smaller, and despite the downturn, the index held near last Friday’s low. The bullish pattern scenarios thus remain in play, and today we’ll discuss the sentiment surrounding them. Last 5
- [Week of 12/15/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-12-15-25/) - Key Points The SPX endured one of its worst trading mornings in weeks on Friday, then bounced, before fading again and ending with a 1.07% decline. That marked its first 1% decline since 11/20 and the first 1% absolute move since 1/24 — a development we’ll discuss further today, along with several other topics and key charts.
- [The New High List Grows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-new-high-list-grows/) - Key Points The S&P 500 posted a modest 20-basis-point gain yesterday, but the real story was the strong comeback from the opening downside gap. That put the index right back to its post-FOMC reaction highs from Wednesday… and extremely close to its former all-time highs from October 27. There were much stronger moves beneath
- [A Solid First Response](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-solid-first-response/) - Key Points As we know, the S&P 500 responded well to the latest Fed decision and commentary yesterday, gaining 70 basis points by the close — the biggest advance since 11/26. The move pushed the index back to the highs from last Friday, bringing it very close to triggering a second bullish chart-pattern, which we’ll
- [Hovering Before FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hovering-before-fomc/) - Key Points The SPX fell for the second straight day ahead of today’s FOMC meeting and has formed a small topping pattern on this 15-minute chart. This most likely won’t have much meaning come 2:00, but it does show that the bid has paused in recent days after a strong two-week run. Today we’ll look
- [The Long XLK Winning Streak… and more](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-long-xlk-winning-streak-and-more/) - Key Points The SPX snapped its latest 4-day winning streak on Monday, with the clear focus on tomorrow’s Fed decision. Market-wise, the XLK Technology ETF’s 11-day winning streak drew plenty of attention yesterday. We’ll break down the run across four charts today and also look at the streak from an alternative angle – among other
- [Week of 12/8/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-12-8-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 comes into Monday up nine of the last ten sessions and riding a four-day winning streak. It remains in short-term breakout mode and is now very close to its former all-time high. As the focus shifts to the Fed this week, we’ll be looking at how volatility sets
- [A Significant Streak Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-significant-streak-continues/) - Key Points The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to three, albeit just marginally advancing on Thursday. But today, we’ll be focusing on a different streak: we haven’t had a +/-1% move since the 1.5% advance on November 24, which we’ll be dissecting today… along with a host of key ETFs and a trade idea in the
- [Knocking on the Door](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/knocking-on-the-door/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second straight advance on Wednesday — another small move, but it was supported by strong breadth for the first time this week. That makes it seven gains in the last eight days, and the index is now pushing closer to its former highs as the bullish pattern we’ve
- [Bullish Patterns Continue to Build](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-continue-to-build-2/) - Key Points The S&P 500 bounced back yesterday, but once again remained in its recent mini trading range. The index has been stuck in the 40-point trading box since last Wednesday—the day before Thanksgiving. Net-net, this is a bullish development, given that we’ve now seen less aggressive profit-taking after rallies. That’s a notable change
- [The First MACD Buy Signal Since April](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-macd-buy-signal-since-april/) - The S&P 500 began December with a down session, ending the five-day win streak. Initially, the index did a good job recovering from the down open, but the afternoon fade pushed it back toward the three-day lows. Net-net, the S&P is essentially flat since early last Wednesday. The five-day bounce produced the first MACD
- [December 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/december-2025/) - SPX – Monthly Winning Streaks The S&P 500 finished November with its seventh straight monthly advance, which extended one of the index’s longest such streaks since 2017. Since then, only one period extended beyond seven: Apr’17-Jan’18 (ten). After 7-Month Winning Streaks Going back to 1950, this now is the 17th monthly winning streak of at
- [After Heightened Two-Way Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-heightened-two-way-volatility/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its fourth straight advance on Wednesday before the holiday. This now marks the third streak of at least four up-days since the last week of October. The last longer streak ran from September 26 through October 6, when the S&P posted seven consecutive gains. Today, we’ll look at
- [Happy Thanksgiving](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/happy-thanksgiving-2/) - Key Points The S&P 500 just missed logging its third straight 1% advance on Tuesday. That said, it now has registered one of its best three-day runs of the year, which has effectively negated the two bearish patterns we’ve been watching. In today’s note, we’ll also discuss breadth, compare the GoNoGo Trend to what
- [Two Straight 1% Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-straight-1-gains-3/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second straight 1% gain on Monday, something we haven’t seen since June. We’ll compare this effort with the prior ones since the August lows, review the short-term work, and discuss the recent drawdowns in the market section of today’s piece. Last 5 Trading Days Daily Price Action
- [10/23/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-23-25/)
- [11/7/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-7-25/)
- [11/20/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-20-25/)
- [November 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november-2025-2/)
- [Week of 11/24/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-24-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its first 1% gain in nearly two weeks on Friday, finally stopping the bleeding — at least for now — and delivering one of its strongest breadth readings in recent months. We’ll break down what that means and walk through several key ETFs in today’s longer-than-usual Monday rundown.
- [The Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-reversal-2/) - Key Points The SPX comes into Friday after enduring one of its biggest negative reversals in recent history. We have charts and stats below showing just how rare the rollover was after beginning the day up more than 1%. Of the different patterns and indicators we track, the GoNoGo Trend chart was the most
- [Buying Weakness](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/buying-weakness/) - Key Points The S&P 500 snapped its four-day losing streak yesterday and will now try to leverage the strong pre-market action. If it can, another bearish pattern breakdown will be negated. We’ll dive further into that today and also discuss how the recent downturn has flipped momentum in one key indicator we track, among other
- [Topping Patterns & a Key Comparison](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/topping-patterns-a-key-comparison/) - Key Points The S&P 500 endured another back-and-forth trading session on Tuesday. For a while, we were on track for yet another 1% decline, but a midday rally prevented that from happening. That said, the additional selling in the final hour, prevented a positive reversal from taking hold. As indicated by the chart below,
- [Teetering… Again](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/teetering-again/) - Key Points The SPX just missed logging another 1% loss on Monday and is now sitting directly on extremely key support. Given that backdrop, today’s note will be heavy on market content. We also have two new trade ideas — one long and one short — and seeing how they play out will be particularly
- [Week of 11/17/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-17-25/) - Key Points The SPX ended a back-and-forth week (+0.08%) with a strong reversal that ultimately produced only a tiny loss (-0.05%) on Friday. Clearly, both the daily and weekly numbers masked the continued volatile tug-of-war that has defined market action over the last five weeks. In today’s piece, we’ll discuss how the market is
- [Big Moves => Messy Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-moves-messy-charts/) - Key Points The SPX logged its third 1%+ decline of November yesterday, which prevented most of the “impending” breakouts we cited from having a chance of triggering. (Although CORN and WEAT both posted strong gains and continued their respective pattern breakouts.) With two-way volatility remaining fierce, both pattern breakouts and breakdowns may continue to
- [Impending Pattern Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/impending-pattern-breakouts-2/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its fourth straight gain on Wednesday, albeit just barely, with a 0.06% advance. Needless to say, this didn’t meaningfully change the index’s chart. Today we’ll review the short-term advance and also examine another failed MACD sell signal in the Market section. The heart of today’s analysis will be
- [Now vs. February'25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-february25/) - Key Points It was an overall quiet day on Tuesday with the bond market closed in observance of Veterans Day, but the S&P 500 (SPX) still added 21 bps, finishing near its intraday high. This time, the non-growth sectors led— a solid response following Monday’s 1.5% gain. With many stocks still trading below their
- [The Eighth 1% Move in Four Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-eighth-1-move-in-four-weeks/) - Key Points The S&P 500 followed through on Friday’s hammer reversal in very strong fashion on Monday, gaining about 1.5%, one of its biggest single-day advances in recent months. Today, we’ll look at the significance of this move, as it already negated the SPX’s bearish pattern, and examine the key technical factors behind it
- [Week of 11/10/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-10-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500’s strong reversal on Friday helped contain the otherwise big weekly decline. We’ll dive deeper into how that happened — and what it means going forward — in today’s note. Last 5 Trading Days Daily Price Action The index gained just 10 basis points on the Friday but closed well
- [The First Live Bearish Pattern Since April](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-live-bearish-pattern-since-april/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third 1% decline in the last six trading days on Thursday — and the second so far in November — as it continues to struggle in recent sessions. Today, we’ll look at the SPX’s live bearish pattern, examine the rest of the pattern work (including the latest
- [The Battle Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-battle-continues/) - Key Points The S&P 500 bounced back on Wednesday, rallying from the open and holding its advance until the final hour’s wave of selling hit. It climbed back to the downtrend line drawn from the recent high earlier last week, but so far, remains below it. Today, we’ll discuss the SPX’s current trading box, its
- [Two-Way Volatility Returns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-way-volatility-returns/) - Key Points The S&P 500 endured another volatile trading session on Tuesday, gapping lower at the open, rallying mid-morning, and then selling off through the final five hours — ending the day down 1.2%. This marks the third 1% decline in the past three weeks, a development we’ll explore in the Market section below.
- [The Cluster of Bad Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-cluster-of-bad-breadth/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second straight gain to kick off November but spent the final hours selling off, ultimately forming another short-term lower high. However, breadth was subpar again, continuing a trend that has become increasingly noticeable over the last week. This will be the focus of today’s market section, along
- [November 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november-2025/) - SPX – Monthly Winning Streaks The S&P 500 finished October with its sixth straight monthly advance, which extended one of the index’s longest such streaks since 2017. Looking back, two different periods extended beyond six: June-August’24 (seven) and Apr’17-Jan’18 (ten). As we’ll recall, the SPX endured enhanced volatility soon after both of those long
- [The Six-Month Winning Streak & AMZN](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-six-month-winning-streak-amzn/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second 1% decline of October yesterday, continuing the selloff that began after Wednesday’s FOMC rate announcement. That said, the mood shifted post-market following strong earnings reactions in a few key stocks — which we’ll dive into at the end of today’s piece. We’ll also take a look
- [New 52-Week Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-52-week-lows/) - Key Points The S&P 500 reacted as expected after yesterday’s FOMC decision on rates. Ironically, the erratic trading after 2 o’clock resulted in a tiny net move of just -0.004% — we had to use an extra decimal point to notice that it was an official down session. The one stat that really stood out
- [The Known Known](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-known-known/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its fourth straight advance yesterday — albeit a marginal one at +23 basis points — ahead of today’s FOMC meeting and major earnings reports tonight. The pause wasn’t a surprise, but under the surface, many stocks did not participate, which we’ll discuss today. We’ll also look at how
- [The 50-DMA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-50-dma/) - Key Points The S&P 500 broke its modest three-day winning streak yesterday, but managed to rally in the final few hours, preventing another 1% decline. As the intraday chart shows below, support remains right at the congestion zone from last Friday. With the SPX once again holding above its 50-day moving average, today, we’re going
- [October Has NOT Been Different Yet](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october-has-not-been-different-yet/) - October has NOT Been Different Yet Key Points The S&P 500 gained 1.2% to start the week yesterday, which was its second-biggest jump since August 22. This pushed the index to fresh all-time highs, as it moves closer to the 6,900 level for the first time. Among other things, this has pushed the
- [Week of 10/27/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-27-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 kicks off the final week of October — and the biggest earnings week of the season — coming off its second straight weekly gain. As we know, both up-weeks followed the 2.7% selloff on Friday, 10/10. The index has since posted a fresh all-time high and officially triggered the
- [Not Too Stretched According to this Indicator](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/not-too-stretched-according-to-this-indicator/) - Key Points The market’s pinball-like price action continued on Thursday, with the S&P following through on Wednesday’s strong finish and extending all the way back up toward 6750. As the chart shows, it’s been a 90-point range since the start of the week — a lot of movement, but no real progress. Still, given that
- [A Little Less Shiny](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-little-less-shiny/) - Key Points With the S&P 500 finished unchanged yesterday, nothing changed technically for the index. Today’s attention, therefore, will be on precious metals, which were hammered in historic fashion on Tuesday. We’ll be taking a close look at the key ETFs in the space across various charts today — among other topics. Last Five
- [Bullish Patterns, Breadth & Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-breadth-momentum/) - Key Points For the second straight Monday, the S&P 500 logged a 1% gain to start the week. It also was the second consecutive up day, which, of course, pulled the index closer to its prior high. On a short-term basis, a smaller bullish pattern has been triggered, which we’ll discuss below. In addition
- [Week of 10/20/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-20-25/) - Key PointsThe S&P 500 bounced back last week, avoiding two straight weekly losses — something it hadn’t done since mid-June. After Monday’s strong 1.6% snapback, the index spent the next four sessions alternating between small gains and losses, resembling the boring (and bullish) price action seen from July through September. With earnings season now in
- [Dissecting the Bearish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/dissecting-the-bearish-patterns/) - Key Points With the financials falling apart yesterday, the S&P 500 got hit hard intraday, pulling back from its early highs for the second straight session and finishing below its midpoint. Today, we’ll focus on the potential topping formation—how it has developed, how it compares to the setup at the beginning of 2025, and the
- [After the First Weekly Overbought Reading](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-first-weekly-overbought-reading/) - Key Points Despite selling off from the open, the S&P 500 managed to log its second gain in the last three days, continuing to claw back from last Friday’s large loss. As the 15-min rolling, 5-day chart shows, there’s been intra-day buying interest each of the past three sessions, which has helped prevent further
- [Hanging Around](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hanging-around-2/) - Key Points Other than the official 16-basis-point decline on Tuesday, the SPX had a constructive session — it reversed near support, formed a higher low, closed above its midpoint, and had supportive breadth. Today, we’re taking a closer look at the short-term bounce, the latest trading box chart, and reviewing key ETFs, with particular
- [Back-to-Back Big Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/back-to-back-big-moves/) - Key Points The S&P 500 snapped back yesterday, which was enough to stop the bleeding from Friday — but since the previous loss was much larger than Monday’s gain, there’s still work to be done. Today, we’ll look at the significance of consecutive 1% moves, along with the latest MACD sell signal and the
- [Week of 10/13/2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-13-2025/) - Key Points With the S&P 500 emphatically breaking its 48-day streak of no 1% declines with Friday’s near -3% drubbing, the burning question, of course, is whether this was a one-day shakeout or the start of a more meaningful correction. Today’s piece will focus squarely on that, drawing on numerous charts across the market landscape.
- [No 1% Moves, the VIX & Biotech](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-1-moves-the-vix-biotech/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second loss in the last three days on Thursday, finishing slightly below its mid-point despite a bounce in the final hour of trading. The overall decline was minimal—just 28 basis points—doing little to alter the index’s technical condition. Today, we’ll look at the short-term drawdowns, two-way volatility,
- [Extended vs. Depressed](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/extended-vs-depressed/) - Key Points The S&P 500 bounced back on Wednesday to log a fresh new all-time closing high and is now up in eight of the last nine trading sessions. Today, we’ll be looking at the index versus its 200-day moving average, as well as its components. We’ll also revisit some of the key, recurring
- [7/17/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-17-25/)
- [7/25/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-25-25/)
- [8/14/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-14-25/)
- [9/4/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-4-25/)
- [10/2/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-2-25/)
- [Bases, Breakouts & Parabolic Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bases-breakouts-parabolic-moves/) - Key Points The S&P 500’s seven-day winning streak was snapped yesterday with another—ultimately innocuous—38-bps decline. The small loss was enough to produce another MACD Sell signal, which we’ll discuss today. However, most of the focus of today’s piece will be elsewhere, with a lot more interesting action occurring outside of the S&P 500. Last
- [Short vs. Long-Term Trends](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/short-vs-long-term-trends/) - Key Points The S&P 500 has now logged seven straight daily gains after yesterday’s modest advance. The last streak longer than this came between April 22 and May 2, when the index rose nine sessions in a row. Today’s note looks at how this streak stacks up against past runs, and what history suggests
- [Week of 10/6/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-6-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 closed last week with a tiny 1 bp gain, but it was enough to mark the index’s sixth straight advance. This is now the longest winning streak since July 21–28 (also six days). The last longer run occurred from April 22 to May 22, when the index rallied for
- [When to Use Short-Term Charts… Now](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/when-to-use-short-term-charts-now/) - Key Points The massive daily swings continued yesterday—which wasn’t all that surprising after we just saw double-digit moves in plenty of ETFs and individual stocks. The SPX gave back 3.5%, but after a 9.5% spike, it almost felt… innocuous. What a time. We’ve got some new charts to share today to help put this
- [How and why a Q4 Chase can Happen](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/how-and-why-a-q4-chase-can-happen/) - Key Points The S&P 500 just barely notched its fifth consecutive gain on Thursday, advancing a meager six basis points. That move pulled it to within 40 basis points of achieving our largest pattern target of 6,745, which has been in place since May. Today, we’ll look at the prior five-day runs going back
- [October and Q4 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october-and-q4-2025/) - SPX – Monthly Winning Streaks The S&P 500 finished September with its fifth straight monthly advance, which extended one of the index’s longest such streaks since 2017. Looking back, most of these multi-month runs have stretched to at least five consecutive gains, including this one now. Three different periods reaching six, seven, and even
- [Bullish Patterns, Healthcare & Chart Trades](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-healthcare-chart-trades/) - Key Points The S&P 500 started October much like it ended September—with a marginal gain. This was enough to mark the fourth consecutive advance, the longest streak since September 8–11 (also four). Today, we’ll focus on the short-term picture for the S&P 500, including the patterns that currently are forming. We’ll also take a
- [Surprise... September was ALSO Boring](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/surprise-september-was-also-boring/) - Key Points The S&P 500 gained 26 basis points in the second-to-last trading day of September and the third quarter. This move did nothing to change its technical condition, as the index remains close to its most recent all-time highs. Today, we’ll take a close look at the market’s boring nature in September, which
- [CappThesis Turns Three](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cappthesis-turns-three/) - Key Points The S&P 500 bounced back from an early decline on Friday to finish near the midpoint of its weekly range, as shown on the chart. This left the index with only a marginal loss over the last five days. The most important takeaway is that the dip was once again bought, just
- [May 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/may-2025/)
- [June 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/june-2025-2/)
- [August 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/august-2025/)
- [September 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/september-2025/)
- [9/26/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-26-25/)
- [A lot of Dips](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-lot-of-dips/) - Opening Look – A lot of Dips Key Points The S&P 500 lost ground for the third straight day on Thursday, marking its longest losing streak since August 15–21 (five in a row). Back then, the streak wasn’t technically damaging—no decline was larger than 60 bps. So far, the same is true this time around.
- [After Overbought](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-overbought/) - Key Points The S&P 500 lost ground for the second straight day, finishing near its lows. It’s now back to levels from last Thursday and Friday. Today, the focus will be on what happens after reaching overbought levels, with the index coming off slightly over the past two sessions. We’ll review the RSI, but
- [ A Key Lagging Indicator](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-key-lagging-indicator/) - Key Points The S&P 500 just barely missed hitting 6700 for the first time yesterday, eventually pulling back and logging its worst decline in over two weeks. Ultimately, it wasn’t a damaging session and considering that the index is still short-term extended., there is clearly a chance for a bigger pullback. Of course, this has
- [Hovering](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hovering-3/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third straight gain to start the week, notched another all-time high, and pushed further into overbought territory across every timeframe—as the out-of-character light September advance continued. Today we’ll take a close look at the short-term setup, break down key growth ETFs, and discuss FOUR trade ideas to
- [The Last 8 Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-last-8-weeks/) - Key Points The S&P 500 dipped slightly to start the week yesterday, barely losing one basis point. This kept it within the same tight trading range it has been in since last Wednesday, August 13. Today, we’re taking a close look at the last eight weeks of trading, diving deep into the daily price
- [The Shallow Dips Persist](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-shallow-dips-persist/) - Key Points The S&P logged its worst decline since August 1 on September’s first day. However, it could have been much worse—an intraday bid appeared around 11:30, cutting the decline in half and allowing the index to finish at the very top of its trading range. This produced a hammer candlestick pattern, something we’ve
- [30 Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/30-days/) - Key Points The S&P 500 bounced back yesterday, making a fresh all-time high, but didn’t do much after the first few minutes of the trading day. The knock on this advance — like several others lately — was that it came with negative breadth. Today, we’ll be focusing on two main themes: The long
- [Week of 9/22/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-9-22-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 finished strongly on Friday, hitting another new all-time high. This marked the third straight weekly advance for the index, as it also achieved our latest upside target of 6,665. Notably, we have yet to see a 1% gain or loss in September. With seven trading days left—and what is
- [The IWM R2k Breakout](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-iwm-r2k-breakout/) - Key Points The S&P 500 followed the FOMC volatility with a respectable +0.48% gain on Thursday. While it finished off its highs, it was still a much better effort compared to the day following the last Fed Day, which produced a nasty negative reversal on 7/31/25. Yesterday’s early strength carried the index to within
- [Reaction > News](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/reaction-news/) - Key Points The S&P 500 slipped 13 basis points on Tuesday, selling off after hitting a fresh intraday high in the opening minutes. This was a clear sign of traders waiting on today’s FOMC rate announcement. Over the last two sessions, the index has barely budged — as the intraday chart makes clear. Today,
- [Week of 9/15/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-9-15-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second straight weekly gain last week and hit 6,600 for the first time in history. As reviewed last week, it also achieved a major target of 6,555 along the way. The index finished Friday with an afternoon sell-off and an ultimate, tiny 5 bps decline — all
- [Never Forget](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/never-forget-2/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third straight advance on Wednesday, producing yet another all-time high. However, the index spent most of the session pulling back, giving back nearly all of the momentum from the opening gap higher. Along the way, it hit our latest upside target of 6,555, which we’ll review today,
- [Breadth & Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-breakouts/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second straight advance on Tuesday with another minor gain — just enough to register a new all-time closing high. However, the 15-minute chart below shows the index still hasn’t made a new intraday high. Thus, the moves on both sides remain small as the index continues to edge higher. It
- [Two Simple Trend Gauges](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-simple-trend-gauges/) - Key Points The S&P 500 started the week with a small gain, but it was enough to sustain the upward-sloping price action that has been in place since last week. Today, we’ll look at two simple yet powerful ways to gauge the market’s trend, as well as review a few ETFs showing bullish formations
- [Week of 9/8/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-9-8-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 finished the week on a negative note, wasting the early strength after the jobs report and closing with a 32-basis point decline. The index did rally marginally in the final four hours, but the negative reversal was felt across nearly every area of the market. With all eyes now on
- [Impending Pattern Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/impending-pattern-breakouts/) - Key Points The SPX logged its second straight advance on Thursday, with the 83-basis point gain marking the largest move since the 1.5% advance on August 22. As we know, it finished at a new closing high, just barely missing also eclipsing the intraday high from August 28. This becomes clear as we look at
- [The Five Month Rally](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-five-month-rally/) - Key Points The S&P 500 snapped its modest two-day losing streak yesterday, finishing near the highs of the day after rallying strongly in the last hour. While the advance was only 51 basis points, it was actually the largest gain since August 22 (Jackson Hole day), when the S&P gained 1.5%. As we note
- [September’25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/september25/) - SPX – Monthly Winning Streaks The S&P 500 finished August with its fourth straight monthly advance, which extended one of the index’s longest such streaks since 2017. Looking back, most of these multi-month runs have stretched to at least five consecutive gains, including the last three since 2023. Three different periods reaching six, seven, and
- [August’s Grand Finale](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/augusts-grand-finale/) - Key Points The SPX’s 41 basis point advance yesterday pulled it right back near last week’s highs, essentially washing away Tuesday’s downside follow-through. Over the last two days, the index is down a meager 0.02% as we wait for the grand finale — the most highly watched earnings release of the summer. As the
- [Breadth, Bitcoin & Chart Trades](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-bitcoin-chart-trades/) - Key Points The S&P 500 pulled back on Monday as it continued to ease off the Jackson Hole–induced spike highs from Friday. So far, the index remains above most of Friday’s gap-like spike, but that creates a near-term air pocket at risk of being filled. Today, we’ll cover the S&P 500 advance–decline line and
- [Week of 8/25/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-25-25/) - Key Points The dovish Jackson Hole event helped produce the SPX’s third straight weekly gain, marking the longest winning streak of 2025. It was also the third 1% advance of the month vs. just one 1% decline – the same ratio we saw in May and June. As a result, all three bullish patterns remain
- [Key Charts before THE Speech](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-charts-before-the-speech/) - Key Points The S&P 500 comes into Jackson Hole speech day with a five-day losing streak — the first such slide since December 26 through January 2. The last longer streak was six days, which occurred back in April 2024 (specifically April 12–19). That marked the end of a 6% drawdown from the March highs.
- [Battling Near the Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/battling-near-the-highs/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged a fourth straight decline on Wednesday, with each move coming in below 60 basis points. For the second consecutive day, however, the index exhibited positive breadth, something we’ll examine more closely in today’s piece. Meanwhile, our most recent short-term bullish pattern is also being tested. If it fails,
- [Tech Hit Hard, as the Field Holds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/tech-hit-hard-as-the-field-holds/) - Key Points The S&P 500 finally broke its tight multi-day trading range yesterday with its biggest decline since August 1—a 1.6% loss. As we know, the drop was tech-related, while the majority of the index still advanced. Even so, it was enough to mark a third straight decline, the longest losing streak since the
- [Week of 8/18/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-18-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 finished last week with a slight loss, but the index logged its fourth weekly gain in the last five weeks. Tuesday’s 1.1% rally—combined with two straight 80% breadth days on Tuesday and Wednesday—was more than enough to secure another solid weekly performance. Healthcare led the market on Thursday and Friday,
- [Ebb & Flow](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/ebb-flow/) - Key Points The S&P 500 just barely squeaked out a third straight advance on Thursday. This now is the longest win streak since, six in a row from July 21 through July 28. But with little movement in the index, price has stayed within a very tight trending range that has defined the last two
- [Back-to-Back 80% Breadth Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/back-to-back-80-breadth-days/) - Key Points The S&P 500 squeaked out a 32-basis point gain on Wednesday, securing its first winning streak of August. Under the surface, things were much stronger than they appeared, with 83% of stocks advancing. This marked the second straight day in which at least 80% of stocks finished higher — which we’ll discuss in
- [Another Bullish Pattern Triggered](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-bullish-pattern-triggered/) - Key Points The S&P 500 shot back yesterday, logging its second-biggest advance since May 27—once again preventing a losing streak from taking hold. This surge produced new all-time highs and confirmed the latest bullish pattern breakout, which we’ll spend some time discussing today. As shown clearly on the 15-minute chart below, the index averted
- [CPI, SPX & Bonds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cpi-spx-bonds/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged another small loss to start the week on Monday, dropping 30 basis points. Going back to Monday, July 7, nine of the last ten losses have been less than 50 basis points. The lone exception came on August 1, when the index dropped 1.6% — but there’s been no
- [ Week of 8/11/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-11-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 concluded a back-and-forth week with a strong finish on Friday, marking the third weekly gain in the last four weeks and the fifth in the last seven. The index finished near its highs and starts this week with the small bullish cup-and-handle pattern pictured here on the rolling 15-minute chart.
- [Indicator Checkup & AAPL](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/indicator-checkup-aapl/) - Key Points The back-and-forth price action continued on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 bouncing back 73 basis points. It may not seem like much, but that was the second-biggest advance since July 23. It wasn’t a resounding effort, with breadth just below 50% once more, but it prevented the drawdown from getting worse, which still
- [Watching SPX Breadth Closely](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/watching-spx-breadth-closely/) - Key Points The SPX failed to follow through upon Monday’s big 1.5% and fell approximately 0.5% yesterday. That prevented another winning streak to start. Believe or not, the last time the index logged a single-day advance that wasn’t followed by another gain was June 16. All in, the S&P 500 has now closed lower
- [Snapback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/snapback-3/) - Key Points The S&P 500 snapped back in impressive fashion to begin the week, with yesterday’s 1.5% gain almost completely erasing the 1.6% decline from last Friday. As we can see on the intraday chart, the index is trading just below the lows from the Fed meeting and the day after. From a pattern
- [The Dog Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-dog-days/) - Key Points The S&P 500 wrapped up another solid—but mostly one-sided—month with a negative reversal / outside day / bearish engulfing pattern. While that didn’t result in the first 1% daily decline since June 13th, the intra-day peak-to-trough move did exceed 1%. And with the market reacting poorly to the latest “Mag 7” earnings—both
- [Yet Another Epic Month](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/yet-another-epic-month/) - Key Points The latest FOMC meeting did not disappoint—at least in terms of the volatility we saw from 2:00 to 4:00 PM. That part was no surprise. However, the extremely strong bid into the close clearly caught many off guard. It turned out to be an indication of things to come in the aftermarket, with
- [The Next 10%](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-10/) - Key Points The SPX snapped its tepid six-day winning streak on Tuesday with – what else – an innocuous 31 bps loss. Small net moves continued for another day, which isn’t surprising with the Fed on deck today. Over the last few days, the S&P 500 has stayed in a very tight range between 6,365
- [Six Tiny Steps](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/six-tiny-steps/) - Key Points The S&P 500 just barely squeaked out its sixth straight advance to start the week on Monday — marking the third six-day winning streak of 2025. Clearly, a two-basis point gain doesn’t mean much, and it’s just by luck that the streak actually extended. Needless to say, not much has changed in
- [Week of 7/28/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-28-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 finished last week with a five-day winning streak, spending the last four trading days riding the short-term trend line pictured below. This marks the fourth winning streak of at least five days since mid-April. The most recent longer streak was a six-day run from May 12 through May 19, 2025.
- [MACD and Two QQQ Upside Targets](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/macd-and-two-qqq-upside-targets/) - Key Points The SPX logged its fourth straight gain on Thursday, albeit three of them have been 10 bps or less, including yesterday’s 0.07% advance. And for the second time this week, the tiny advance had negative internals (see more in the daily price action section below). The last five-day run happened from 5/29 –
- [Trading Box Breakouts & New 52-Week Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trading-box-breakouts-new-52-week-highs/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its third straight advance on Wednesday, marking its first three-day winning streak since June 26–30, 2025. The last longer streak was five in a row from May 29 through June 4. This, of course, allowed the index to notch yet another all-time high. This was achieved by the SPX
- [Non-Growth Stocks Make a Stand](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/non-growth-stocks-make-a-stand/) - Key Points The SPX logged a tiny gain on Tuesday, marking its fourth two-day winning streak of July. The last longer streak was three in a row from June 26 to June 30. Under the surface, however, the tone couldn’t have been more different: breadth was extremely strong on Tuesday, in sharp contrast to the
- [The Missing July Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-missing-july-volatility/) - Key Points The S&P 500 starts Tuesday after logging a second straight small move — a minor gain. Follow-through on both sides has been limited in July; so far, we haven’t seen a winning or losing streak extend beyond two sessions all month. Thus, the onus remains on the bears to do something more substantial
- [SPX, NDX and NASDAQ Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-ndx-and-nasdaq-breadth/) - Key Points The S&P 500 followed through on its strong comeback from Wednesday and logged a respectable 54 basis point gain yesterday. That move was enough to push the index to yet another new all-time high—albeit marginally. The next step would be seeing additional follow through, which would help the index punch through the
- [A Lot Happening Under the Surface](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-lot-happening-under-the-surface/) - Key Points The S&P 500 snapped back on Wednesday, preventing the first losing streak in the last two weeks to occur. As we can tell from the rolling 15-minute chart below, so far this week, the SPX has had two head fakes — the first being a false breakout on Monday morning, and the second
- [Bears Looking for Downside Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bears-looking-for-downside-follow-through/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged its second loss in the last three days on Tuesday post-CPI numbers. While the 40-basis point decline was undramatic, the index only had 10% of its components advance, which was the lowest amount since May 2, 2025. Ultimately, the index is just about flat since the close on
- [Pausing Near the Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pausing-near-the-highs/) - Key Points With the CPI data, big bank earnings and continued geopolitical news hitting the tape this morning, the SPX will have plenty to key off of today. As is crystal clear, the index has weathered every and all potential negative catalysts since the middle of April. At some point news (good or bad)
- [Week of 7/14/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-14-25/) - Key Points It may not have felt like it, but last week the S&P 500 was down three of the five trading days. As the rolling five-day 15-minute chart shows, even though the index finished above its intraday midpoint on three of those five days, follow-through into the next session was limited. Given the
- [Daily vs. Short-Term Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/daily-vs-short-term-momentum/) - Key Points The SPX ended yesterday near its highs, continuing the upswing that began late Wednesday morning. That was enough for the index to set another new all-time high, albeit a marginal one. With the weak pre-market action so far this morning, there’s short-term downside risk down to 6,245. We’ll discuss more about the
- [Market Strength Indicator](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/market-strength-indicator/) - Key Points The SPX snapped another short-term, innocuous losing streak yesterday with a 61-bps advance. Though the initial pop was sold, the dip was bought and led to a consistent tick higher into the close. The index now is back to where it was trading early on the July 3rd holiday-shortened ½ day of trading.
- [Low Two-Way Vol Persists](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/low-two-way-vol-persists/) - Key Points The SPX lost ground for the second straight day on Tuesday, but the move was small once again. Since 4/21, the index has logged TWO 1% declines in 53 trading sessions, which we’ll discuss in greater detail in the market section today. The index traded in a tight range yesterday and is net
- [Officially Overbought... Again](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/officially-overbought-again-2/)
- [Week of 7/7/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-7-25-2/)
- [Same News, Better Reaction](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/same-news-better-reaction/) - Key Points The SPX broke its two-day winning streak with its biggest decline since 6/17 yesterday, with the sell-off being attributed to tariffs. With the index now up 30% in three months, ANY news could have resulted in a loss. And considering that the news, itself, wasn’t exactly good, the market had every reason to
- [+30%](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/30/) - Key Points The S&P 500 was up three out of four days last week and has now posted gains in seven of the last nine trading sessions dating back to June 23. In Thursday’s shortened session, the index finished near the highs and logged its best day since June 26. All of that helped
- [Week of 7/7/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-7-25/) - Key Points The S&P 500 was up three out of four days last week and has now posted gains in seven of the last nine trading sessions dating back to June 23. In Thursday’s shortened session, the index finished near the highs and logged its best day since June 26. All of that helped
- [SPX vs. 20-Day Moving Avg.](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-vs-20-day-moving-avg/) - Key Points The S&P 500 logged another 50–basis point gain on Wednesday — its third ~0.5% advance in the past four sessions. This extended the remarkably steady uptrend for another trading day, as clearly shown on the rolling five-day, 15-minute chart below. The market now has three and a half hours to react to
- [No Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-drawdowns/) - Key Points The SPX started July quietly, slipping 0.11%, despite many areas outside of growth performing extremely well. That said, as we can see from the rolling five-day, 15-minute chart, even the shortest-term consolidations continue to be bullish, with the S&P consistently breaking out from them. That’s exactly how this bounce back has been
- [July and Q3 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/july-and-q3-2025/) - SPX – Key June Stats -5.0% monthly gain -Up 13/20 trading days -Positive breadth 12/20 trading days -Closed above mid-point 13/20 trading days -Avg. daily gain +63bps -Avg. daily loss -43bps –THREE 1% gains –ONE 1% decline Patterns It was a busy month for patterns once again, at least from the bullish
- [Officially Overbought… Again](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/officially-overbought-again/) - Key Points The SPX had a noteworthy five days last week – it hit two upside targets (6,120 & 6,125), made new all-time highs, logged two straight 1% gains, was up 4/5 days and, also, witnessed its smallest loss in the index’s entire history on Wednesday. Just one more up tick could have given us
- [Two More SPX Targets Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-more-spx-targets-hit/) - Key Points The SPX got back to its uptrending ways on Thursday after Wednesday’s historically small decline, once again closing at its intra-day highs. And in finishing extremely close to new all-time highs, the index easily attained two of our pattern targets, which we’ll discuss below. It’s not alone, of course. While it didn’t
- [Bullish Patterns Continue to Build](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-continue-to-build/) - Key Points According to Ryan Detrick of Carson Group, the S&P 500 logged its smallest decline in history yesterday, officially dropping by just 0.00033%. Whenever we see a small move (historic or not), the same question arises: was it a failure to go up or an inability to go down? At this stage,
- [Two Straight 1% Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-straight-1-gains-2/) - Key Points The SPX picked up right where it left off on Tuesday, logging its second straight 1% gain. We last saw this from 4/22 – 4/24 when the index logged three straight 1% advances. We’ll dive into more of this within the market section of today’s report. The bottom line is that we’re
- [A New Upside Target](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-new-upside-target/) - Key Points The S&P 500 ended its three-day losing streak in resounding fashion on Monday, gaining 1% despite the negative headlines over the weekend. The initial reaction to the news was felt elsewhere—namely in crude oil, the dollar & Bitcoin—giving risk assets a chance to digest developments before the equity market officially opened. That obviously
- [SPX, Crude Oil, USD & the VIX](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-crude-oil-usd-the-vix/) - Key Points Before this weekend’s events, SPX logged its third straight decline on Friday, which now is the index’s longest losing streak since four from 5/20-5/23/25. Indeed, only one of the declines was sizable (-80 bps on Tuesday), with the other two barely even getting to negative territory (-0.2% and -0.03%). But with just four
- [Week of 6/23/2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-23-2025/) - Key Points Before this weekend’s events, SPX logged its third straight decline on Friday, which now is the index’s longest losing streak since four from 5/20-5/23/25. Indeed, only one of the declines was sizable (-80 bps on Tuesday), with the other two barely even getting to negative territory (-0.2% and -0.03%). But with just four
- [The Setup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-setup/) - Key Points The SPX continued the sell off yesterday that began late Monday morning, with the index ultimately closing on its intra-day lows. All in, it was an 84-bps decline, which has happened just two days after last Friday’s 1.1% down move. Both of these losses were the biggest since 5/21 (-1.6%). Combined with Monday’s
- [Three Key SPX Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-key-spx-charts/) - Key PointsThe SPX bounced back from Friday’s 1% decline with a near 1% gain on Monday. As the 5-day chart below shows, the early strength was extended upon from the open but hit a brick wall by 11:00, which prevented the index from logging an official 1% gain, as well as challenging last week’s highs.
- [Week of 6/16/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-16-25/) - Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% decline of June on Friday, which was enough to snap the index’s two-week winning streak. The index tried to mount a rally for a few hours mid-day, but it ultimately failed, and the index closed near its intra-day and weekly lows. With Friday being the first day
- [Key Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-levels-3/) - Key Points The SPX bounced back yesterday, preventing a downside follow through. Today’s focus will be on how the index reacts to last night’s news. In today’s market section we’re discussing the potential downside risks, key support and retracement levels. Side note, going forward, we’ll be showing this rolling 15-minute, 5-day chart, along with
- [Now vs. the February Top](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-the-february-top/) - Key Points The SPX’s small moves continued on Wednesday, but the index couldn’t hold the early CPI-induced advance, logging an ultimate negative reversal, a close near its intra-day lows with sub-par volume. That’s a bearish combination, but not surprising given how one-sided the advance has been the last two months. With the market lower this
- [Buy Signals, Waves and MAGS](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/buy-signals-waves-and-mags-2/)
- [5/23/25 - Friday Fireworks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-23-25-friday-fireworks/)
- [5/29/25 - SPX, SIL, USO & NVDA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-29-25-spx-sil-uso-nvda/)
- [6/9/25 - Weekly Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-9-25-weekly-charts/)
- [Grinding Higher](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/grinding-higher/) - Key Points After last Thursday’s fireworks, the SPX has gotten back to its staircase-like advance the last three trading sessions. The index logged its third straight advance yesterday, finished close to its highs with nearly 70% advancing stocks – going three-for-three for the third straight trading session. Now it must prove it can repeat the
- [Two Key Breadth Indicators](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-key-breadth-indicators/) - Key Points The final stats were bullish yesterday – The SPX logged its second straight gain, closed above its intra-day midpoint and had positive internals. While that statement is factually accurate, each data point just barely finished on the positive side. The index spent the last part of the trading session in fade-mode. Viewed
- [Bullish Patterns Continue](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-continue/) - Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain of June to conclude a strong weekly showing. It was the second straight weekly gain, the third in the last four weeks and the sixth in the last nine weeks since the April low. Since 4/21, the index now has had SEVEN gains of at least
- [Week of 6/9/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-9-25/) - Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain of June to conclude a strong weekly showing. It was the second straight weekly gain, the third in the last four weeks and the sixth in the last nine weeks since the April low. Since 4/21, the index now has had SEVEN gains of at least
- [A Few Fireworks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-few-fireworks/) - Key Points Notwithstanding the entertaining social media fireworks yesterday, the SPX managed to hold things together. While the five-day winning streak was broken, with one of its biggest stocks in one of its most influential sectors crashing nearly 20% intra-day, the overall damage could have been a lot worse. The 53-basis point loss was
- [Complacency](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/complacency/) - Key Points The SPX’s winning streak extended to five yesterday with a whopping one basis point advance. The intra-day path was as flat as the final numbers suggested, with the only noticeable difference on Thursday was that the index closed below its intra-day midpoint for just the fifth time in the last 17 sessions.
- [Small Moves Continue to Help](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/small-moves-continue-to-help/) - Key Points The two-day chart below says it all – there’s been an underlying bid since 10:30 Monday morning, with the SPX slowly and persistently ticking higher for nearly two straight trading sessions. While the index finished off of its afternoon highs on Tuesday, it still closed clearly above its intra-day midpoint – now for
- [Constructive Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/constructive-digestion/) - Key Points The SPX responded well to early weakness yesterday, pivoted at 10:00 and rode a persistent intra-day bid all the way to 4:00. That amounted to another modest 41 bps gain and close on the highs. The missing ingredient was positive breadth, though the vast majority of stocks and ETFs and indices were
- [June’25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/june25/) - SPX – Key May Stats -6.2% monthly gain -Up 13/21 trading days -Negative breadth 12/21 trading days -Closed above mid-point 12/21 days -Avg. daily gain +80bps -Avg. daily loss -60bps –THREE 1% gains –ONE 1% decline Patterns It was a busy month for patterns, at least from the bullish side. First,
- [After the May Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-may-follow-through/) - Key Points The SPX snapped back on Thursday after Wednesday’s sub-par performance. It wasn’t a great day by any means, with the index wasting the strong pre-market futures pop. But just when it looked certain that we’d get the second straight negative reversal, a bid materialized once again. This resulted in a modest gain,
- [SPX, SIL, USO & NVDA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-sil-uso-nvda/) - Key Points The SPX failed to follow through on Tuesday’s 1.4% gain, spending the first three hours and then final hour of trading in sell-off mode. Despite the bad close, though, the index avoided a sizable decline. And as the two-day chart below depicts, the decline didn’t come close to undercutting the prior day’s opening
- [Gap & Extend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/gap-extend/) - Key Points Tuesday’s trading session couldn’t have gone much better for the bulls – as the early positive response to news produced a gap, which then was bought throughout the day. That resulted in a close near the highs and breadth that surpassed +90%. It was the SPX’s FOURTH 90% breadth day since
- [Comparing the Dips](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/comparing-the-dips/) - Key Points Friday and last week’s performance in a nutshell: 🔴 4th straight decline🔴 4th straight negative breadth day🔴 Biggest weekly decline since the week ending 4/4/25 🟢 No downside follow-through after Wed’s 1% decline🟢 Held the confluence of support near 200-DMA🟢 Retraced less than 1/2 of last week’s 5.3% gain🟢 Intra-day buy interest after pre-market
- [Week of 5/27/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-5-27-25/) - Key Points Friday and last week’s performance in a nutshell: 🔴 4th straight decline🔴 4th straight negative breadth day🔴 Biggest weekly decline since the week ending 4/4/25 🟢 No downside follow-through after Wed’s 1% decline🟢 Held the confluence of support near 200-DMA🟢 Retraced less than 1/2 of last week’s 5.3% gain🟢 Intra-day buy interest after pre-market tariff
- [Friday Fireworks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/friday-fireworks/) - Intra-Day The response to the SPX’s first 1% decline in a month was a non-event yesterday. When this happens, the question is always which side had the edge? Bears were hoping for the kind downside follow through we saw in March and early April (which could happen today). Bulls were hoping for an immediate and
- [Gut Check](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/gut-check-2/) - Intra-Day Yesterday’s weak bond auction ended up being the catalyst – or the latest “known unknown” – to hit the market, and the SPX’s reaction easily shattered the 21-day streak of no 1% declines. The intra-day chart tells the story. Aside from a short rally attempt between 1:30 and 2:00, the price action was decidedly
- [MACD Hits Highest Level Ever](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/macd-hits-highest-level-ever/) - Intra-Day The SPX’s latest winning streak ended yesterday, but it wasn’t exactly shattered, with the index losing 39 bps. Given how one-sided the market has been, that was the biggest decline since 5/8. But going back to 4/21, it only was the fourth decline in 21 trading days. The more telling streak – of zero
- [SPX Overbought & Bullish Patterns Under the Surface](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-overbought-bullish-patterns-under-the-surface/) - Intra-Day Despite the down open and fret over the Moody’s downgrade, the SPX’s recent trends continued on Monday: Six straight gains, six straight closes near the intra-day highs and 20 straight days without a 1% loss. Of course, we needed every second of yesterday’s price action to keep the streaks alive, but the invisible bid
- [Week of 5/19/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-5-19-25/) - Intra-Day Friday For the fifth straight session, the SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs on Friday. It also marked the 19th consecutive day without a 1% decline — a streak that may be tested today given the early negative reaction to the U.S. debt downgrade. Since that last 1% down day,
- [Streaks & Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/streaks-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points The SPX rallied back from early weakness to log its fourth straight advance on Thursday — its second winning streak of at least four days in the last four weeks. As we’ll recall, the index also notched nine in a row from 4/22–5/2. The more telling streak extended yesterday: the index has
- [After the Next Pause](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-next-pause/) - Intra-Day While yesterday’s price action was a lot quieter than Monday’s, the intra-day path was similar – a strong open followed by sustained strength throughout the day, ending with a close near the highs. Since the SPX’s nine-day winning streak ended, the index has posted four gains in seven sessions. In six of those
- [After the Gap](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-gap/) - Intra-Day The intra-day chart says it all — Monday was a classic gap, hold, and extend session. The only noticeable dip occurred mid-morning, but when that failed to trigger a momentum shift, the bid returned and the rally resumed. Daily Price Action The SPX’s 3.3% pop was the best gain since the 9.5% spike from
- [The Extension Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-extension-continues/) - Intra-Day Friday The SPX logged its smallest net move since February 11 on Friday, as the streak of no 1% declines extended to 13 sessions. For the first time since the week ending February 7, 2025, the index also had no 1% absolute moves in a calendar week. The market was still hovering near
- [Week of 5/12/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-5-12-25/) - Intra-Day Friday The SPX logged its smallest net move since February 11 on Friday, as the streak of no 1% declines extended to 13 sessions. For the first time since the week ending February 7, 2025, the index also had no 1% absolute moves in a calendar week. The market was still hovering near
- [SPX, Crypto and Trade Ideas](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-crypto-and-trade-ideas/) - Key Points Despite the late-day rollover yesterday, the SPX notched its second straight gain and extended the streak of no 1% declines to 13 sessions. The index has recorded only one 1% advance over the last 10 sessions as well. Let’s not forget that this remarkably quiet action has unfolded during one of the busiest
- [5/17/25 - Mirror Image](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-17-25-mirror-image/)
- [Mirror Image](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/mirror-image/) - Key Points It felt like a classic FOMC day on Wednesday, and the SPX responded much as we’d expect. Despite the volatility, the index finished with a modest 43 bps advance. That halted the two-day losing streak and extended the stretch of no 1% declines to 12 sessions — the last one occurring on 4/21.
- [The Set Up & FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-set-up-fomc/) - Key Points The SPX slipped for the second straight day on Tuesday, as selective profit-taking and cautious waiting replaced the consistent buying we’d seen over the past two weeks ahead of today’s FOMC decision. FOMC & SPXWhile the SPX finished below its intra-day midpoint on Tuesday, it posted one of the narrowest ranges of the
- [The One Streak That's Still Alive](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-one-streak-thats-still-alive/) - Key Points The SPX’s impressive nine-session winning streak ended Monday after the midday rally fizzled, resulting in the worst loss since April 18… One Streak Remains AliveWhile the winning streak was broken, another notable trend continues: the index has now gone 10 consecutive sessions without a 1% decline. That’s particularly significant considering the turbulence
- [Long Winning Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/long-winning-streaks/) - SPX Weekly Track The SPX was five-for-five last week, with its winning streak now at nine entering the first full week of May. Long Winning Streaks As we know, this is now the longest winning streak in nearly 20 years—and one of the longest runs in the SPX’s history. SubuTrade shared this chart on
- [Week of 5/5/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-5-5-25/) - SPX Weekly Track The SPX was five-for-five last week, with its winning streak now at nine entering the first full week of May. Long Winning Streaks As we know, this is now the longest winning streak in nearly 20 years—and one of the longest runs in the SPX’s history. SubuTrade shared this chart
- [Monthly Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/monthly-chart-rundown/) - Key Points The SPX’s streak of no 1% moves continued on April’s last day thanks to the market fighting back from early weakness. This has become a noticeable character change over the last few weeks. For the month, the SPX finished above its intra-day midpoint 13 times in 21 trading days. That includes six
- [Another Epic Month](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-epic-month/) - Key Points The SPX logged another gain Tuesday in front of the month’s final trading day and right before four of the biggest and most influential stocks in the world report earnings. It was the sixth straight gain, which is getting a lot of headlines. However, one streak that no one is talking about
- [The String of Good Closes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-string-of-good-closes/) - Key Points The SPX leaned on a late-day bid to notch its fifth straight gain on Monday — the longest winning streak of 2025 so far. The last longer run was seven in a row from 11/8 to 11/16, the week and a half before Thanksgiving. Just as notable: the index closed above its
- [Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-bullish-engulfing-pattern/) - SPX Weekly Track The SPX is riding a four-day winning streak to start another busy earnings week. The last longer run happened from 11/18 – 11/26, which lasted for SEVEN days. Strong Three-Week Moves All in, the SPX’s three-week advance now totals nearly 9%, a very strong gain over that time span. Here’s a
- [Week of 4/28/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-4-28-25/) - SPX Weekly Track The SPX is riding a four-day winning streak to start another busy earnings week. The last longer run happened from 11/18 – 11/26, which lasted for SEVEN days. Strong Three-Week Moves All in, the SPX’s three-week advance now totals nearly 9%, a very strong gain over that time span. Here’s
- [Three Straight 1.5% Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-straight-1-5-gains/) - Key Points The SPX logged its third straight gain on Thursday—and its third consecutive advance of at least 1%. It was also the third session in a row where more than 70% of stocks moved higher. As all of us know by now, the recent string of broad participation triggered the widely watched Zweig
- [Buy Signals, Waves and MAGS](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/buy-signals-waves-and-mags/) - Key Points The breather on Tuesday was exactly that—a pause in the action before things turned volatile again on Wednesday. Midday comments from Powell triggered the sharp down move, pulling the SPX below the key 5,325 zone it had been clinging to. By the close, the index notched its fifth 1%+ decline for April,
- [A Breather](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-breather/) - Key Points The SPX’s streak of five straight 1%+ moves ended yesterday with a modest 20 bps decline—its smallest daily move since last Monday, 4/7. But make no mistake: this was a true day of tight-range trading. Last Monday might’ve looked calm by the close, but it was anything but—a 5% gap down, an immediate
- [A Familiar Setup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-familiar-setup/) - Key Points The SPX logged its second straight 1.8% gain on Monday – its third huge advance in the last four trading sessions, its fifth consecutive move of at least 1%, and the sixth in the last seven days. Two-way volatility remains fierce, and with the index now approaching the well-known 5,500 resistance zone—just
- [One for the Ages](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-for-the-ages-2/) - SPX Weekly Track It was one for the ages last week. The SPX’s total net percentage move came in just shy of 64%—summing up all the absolute advances of 3% or more through Friday’s close. Weekly Moving Averages Despite the SPX’s sharp snapback, the key weekly moving averages are continuing to curl over – again
- [Week of 4/14/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-4-14-25/) - SPX Weekly Track It was one for the ages last week. The SPX’s total net percentage move came in just shy of 64%—summing up all the absolute advances of 3% or more through Friday’s close. Weekly Moving Averages Despite the SPX’s sharp snapback, the key weekly moving averages are continuing to curl over – again
- [Ultimate Face Ripping](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/ultimate-face-ripping/) - Key Points Well… we’d been waiting for the first real bid after the SPX logged six declines of at least 1% (three of them much worse) since 3/26 — and it finally arrived, in extraordinary fashion. We’ll dig into a few studies below to help put this in context, though I’m sure most of
- [41% Move in Two Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/41-move-in-two-days/) - Key Points The rollercoaster continued on Tuesday, with the SPX suffering one of the biggest intraday negative reversals in history—if not the biggest. After wasting a massive 4% gain, it closed the day down 1.6%, marking a nearly 7% drop from the day’s high. We’ll break down the wild swings, breadth deterioration, and
- [The First Bounce Attempt](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-bounce-attempt/) - Key Points The epic moves continue, with the difference yesterday being that demand finally surfaced. As we know, it led to one of the biggest daily swings in history, with the SPX finishing close to unchanged. All in, the 20-bps decline extended the losing streak to three. Like we always ask after a small
- [Week of 4/7/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-4-7-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Key Levels This is the true definition of price and support discovery—which has been on full display in real-time and happening at an historic clip. When the first real rally effort shows up, it’ll be obvious in hindsight. Will it occur at a “key level” or not? With other
- [The Reaction](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-reaction-2/) - Let’s jump right into it. With S&P 500 futures testing the March lows, the SPX cash index will open at levels that will be very close to triggering the second bearish pattern we flagged yesterday. Things are moving fast—this is a 2-hour chart, so the technical setup could look very different by 4:00 PM.
- [Key Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-levels-2/) - Key Points The SPX kicked off April much like it closed out March — with a muted gain ahead of today’s tariff announcement. This being the case, today’s focus is on key support and resistance levels, making sure we’re ready regardless of what the headlines bring. Key Levels With the market violently zigzagging over
- [April & 2Q 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/april-2q-2025/) - SPX – Key March Stats -5.8% monthly loss -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 13/21 trading days -Closed below mid-point 11/21 days -Avg. daily gain +89bps -Avg. daily loss -130bps –FOUR 1% gains –EIGHT 1% declines Patterns It was a busy month for patterns. With the SPX hitting 5,650 early in
- [Epic Month](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/epic-month/) - Key Points The SPX logged its 12th absolute 1% move of March on Friday; its eighth 1% decline and its second two percent loss, as well. For some perspective, the index endured more than eight 1% losses in a calendar month just once in 2022: September (9). It had more than 12 absolute 1% moves
- [2/27/25 - Five Straight Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/2-27-25-five-straight-declines/)
- [3/27/25 - Another 2022 Comparison](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-27-25-another-2022-comparison/)
- [3/13/25 - Tepid Buy Interest](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-13-25-tepid-buy-interest/)
- [March 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march-2025/)
- [Running in Place](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/running-in-place/) - Key Points It was a quiet session on Thursday, with the SPX trading in a tight range, ping-ponging between some of the key moving averages and anchored VWAP lines we’ve been featuring over the past week. Despite the barrage of big daily moves earlier in March, the last two weeks have seen relatively muted
- [Another 2022 Comparison](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-2022-comparison/) - The SPX’s streak of tight, muted moves ended abruptly on Wednesday, with the index opened slightly higher before quickly fading and logging another 1% decline. That marks 11 absolute 1% moves this month — the most since March ’23. More notably, it was the SPX’s seventh 1% loss of the month, which will be
- [Pausing](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pausing/) - Key Points The SPX squeaked out a marginal gain on Tuesday, with a late round of buying in the final half hour enough for a third straight advance. It’s the first winning streak longer than two days since February 10–13, when the index rallied four in a row. Since last Thursday, the SPX has
- [This Now has Happened 3 Times Since 2023](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/this-now-has-happened-3-times-since-2023/) - Key Points The SPX logged its third gain in four days on Monday—also marking its second 1% advance in the past four sessions. As is clear, the vast majority of the move happened within the first 20 minutes of trading, with the SPX flat lining until a final push very late in the day. As
- [Another Rally Attempt](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-rally-attempt/) - Steep Downtrend Line BreaksSimply by moving sideways over the past few days, the SPX finally broke through the steep downtrend line that had defined its price action since the mid-February top. So far, it has NOT been the same kind of immediate about-face we saw back in August. As a reminder, those three straight 1%
- [Week of 3/24/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-3-24-25/) - Steep Downtrend Line BreaksSimply by moving sideways over the past few days, the SPX finally broke through the steep downtrend line that had defined its price action since the mid-February top. So far, it has NOT been the same kind of immediate about-face we saw back in August. As a reminder, those three straight
- [Volatile Bounce](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/volatile-bounce/) - Key Points The SPX responded well to the FOMC’s non-decision on rates and the relatively uneventful press conference by Powell that followed. The session wasn’t without volatility—a sharp pop from 2:00 to 3:00 PM led to some profit-taking in the final hour of trading—but the bulk of the advance held. The intraday VWAP line
- [SPX & FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-fomc-3/) - Key Points The two-day winning streak is over. The last time the SPX logged more than two consecutive gains was 2/10 – 2/13, just a week before the market topped. As the intra-day chart shows, all the damage happened in the first half-hour, with the SPX moving sideways into the close. The VWAP acted
- [Breadth Surge](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-surge/) - Key Points The SPX logged its second straight gain on Monday, marking the first back-to-back advance since February 18–19. While the index stayed in positive territory all session, buying accelerated as SPY broke through its intra-day VWAP—a pattern we’ve seen repeatedly in recent weeks (mostly to the downside). That said, with momentum fading in the
- [After Four-Week Losing Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-four-week-losing-streaks/) - SPX Weekly Track After 4-Week Losing Streaks The SPX just recorded its fourth consecutive weekly loss, matching the four-week decline from July–August 2024. Historically, the index has shown strong performance in the two weeks following extended losing streaks. According to marketcharts.com, since 2005, there have been 17 non-overlapping instances of four-week losing streaks. Over
- [Week of 3/17/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-3-17-25/) - SPX Weekly Track After 4-Week Losing Streaks The SPX just recorded its fourth consecutive weekly loss, matching the four-week decline from July–August 2024. Historically, the index has shown strong performance in the two weeks following extended losing streaks. According to marketcharts.com, since 2005, there have been 17 non-overlapping instances of four-week losing streaks.
- [The Consistent Trend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-consistent-trend/) - Key Points The familiar intra-day pattern played out once again on Thursday, with the S&P 500 (SPX) spending most of the session below its intra-day VWAP. In total, this marked the index’s second 1% decline of the week and its fifth 1% loss in March—a trend we’ll break down further below. We’ll also examine
- [Tepid Buy Interest](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/tepid-buy-interest/) - Key Points For the second straight day, midday demand appeared—but once again, it lacked the follow-through needed to extend the move beyond a few hours. SPY spent most of the afternoon above its intraday VWAP, but without support from one of its biggest and most influential names, the rally attempts remained limited. Two
- [SPX vs. 20-Day Moving Average](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-vs-20-day-moving-average/) - Key Points The good news: the SPX staged a strong intraday comeback yesterday, avoided another 1% decline, and large-cap growth led all day. But that rebound lacked follow-through into the final hour, with SPY finishing below its VWAP yet again. Tech did manage to take the top sector spot—for only the second time in
- [Oversold, Patterns & Divergences](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/oversold-patterns-divergences/) - Key Points The first-quarter sell-off intensified on Monday, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.7%—its biggest decline since the 2.9% drop on 12/18/24, following the Fed’s Hawkish Cut. That event, of course, set the stage for what has become an extremely volatile and treacherous trading environment. While yesterday’s decline was sharper than the previous five
- [Weekly Charts, Sentiment  & a Key Comparison](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-charts-sentiment-a-key-comparison/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Channel The SPX just logged its third straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since the four-week slide in July–August 2024. Considering that the drawdown (now at -8%) is the biggest since that same period, this isn’t surprising. On the weekly chart, the index has now dropped to the
- [Week of 3/10/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-3-10-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Channel The SPX just logged its third straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since the four-week slide in July–August 2024. Considering that the drawdown (now at -8%) is the biggest since that same period, this isn’t surprising. On the weekly chart, the index has now dropped to the
- [Support and Stock Screens](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/support-and-stock-screens/) - Key Points Downside pressure continued on Thursday, with the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline in the last six sessions. That brings us to six consecutive 1% moves, with gains occurring on Wednesday and last Friday. That’s a lot—and the first time we’ve seen at least six straight since seven in November 2020, right before
- [March’25 vs. Aug’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march25-vs-aug24/) - Key Points Two-way volatility remains the defining theme of 2025, and Wednesday was no exception. A flat open gave way to a late-morning breakdown, only to be violently reversed just before noon—setting the stage for a strong positive reversal into the close. In the end, it marked the second 1% gain in four sessions
- [Six SPX Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/six-spx-charts/) - Broadening Formation Tuesday’s weak open pushed the SPX below its January low, marking the first true lower low since then. Back in January, we saw both a false breakdown near 5,750 and a false breakout above 6,100, which, together, helped form a broadening pattern. While upside follow-through had been lacking, the index stayed relatively close
- [Two Oversold Indicators](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-oversold-indicators/) - Key Points Volatility surged on Tuesday, with a gap lower, a sharp +2.3% intraday rally that briefly turned the index positive, and a complete unraveling in the final half hour. For most of the session, it looked like a classic Turnaround Tuesday, but once again, the news cycle proved more powerful than market forces.
- [Another Bearish Engulfing Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-bearish-engulfing-pattern/) - Key Points Volatility remained elevated on Monday, with the SPX recording its third consecutive absolute 1% move and its second decline of at least 1.5% in the past three sessions. It’s now the most concentrated cluster of 1.5% declines since August 2–5, when the index dropped 1.8% and 3% on back-to-back days. That ultimately
- [March'25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march25/) - SPX – Key February Stats -1.4 % monthly loss -Up 10/19 trading days -Positive breadth 11/19 trading days -Closed above mid-point 13/19 days -Avg. daily gain +56 bps -Avg. daily loss -74 bps -TWO 1% gains -TWO 1% declines Patterns February was a busy month for patterns, but not for the
- [Sentiment & Chart Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/sentiment-chart-patterns/) - Key Points The SPX logged its sixth consecutive decline on Thursday, once again failing to hold early strength, undercutting its intra-day VWAP line mid-day and ultimately closing at the lows. This marks the second decline of at least 1.6% in February and the second in the past week, as well, with the erratic trading
- [Five Straight Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/five-straight-declines/) - Key Points The SPX gave up an early advance on Wednesday, briefly paused, and then declined through 2:00 PM before settling in negative territory and logging its fifth consecutive decline. As seen on the intraday SPY chart, once the index fell below its VWAP, downside momentum accelerated. This pattern played out across most major
- [Depressed Stocks & NVDA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/depressed-stocks-nvda/) - Depressed Stocks After four straight days of losses, many stocks have taken a hit. So how do we identify the best candidates for a potential mean-reverting move? With literally thousands to choose from, we need a structured approach. Using the finviz.com database, we begin with 5,506 common stocks (excluding ETFs). To refine the
- [Two Straight Bad Closes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-straight-bad-closes/) - Key Points For the second consecutive day, the SPX closed near its lows. On Friday, the downtrend began in the opening minutes and persisted through 4:00, weighed down by weak market breadth. While yesterday’s 50 bps decline wasn’t as severe, it was arguably more discouraging. Around 1:00, the SPX was near its highs with
- [Friday's Big Decline](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fridays-big-decline/) - SPX Weekly Track Friday Friday’s deluge turned a small weekly gain into a sizable daily and weekly decline. Overall, Fridays haven’t been kind to the SPX so far in 2025, per Ryan Detrick of Carson Group. Mondays haven’t either… The SPX lost over 1.5% and closed on its weekly lows for the first
- [Week  of 2/24/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-2-24-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Friday Friday’s deluge turned a small weekly gain into a sizable daily and weekly decline. Overall, Fridays haven’t been kind to the SPX so far in 2025, per Ryan Detrick of Carson Group. Mondays haven’t either… Overall, the SPX lost over 1.5% and closed on its weekly lows for the
- [Assessing the Cracks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/assessing-the-cracks/) - Key Points Before bouncing yesterday, the S&P 500 was on track for its second-worst session since January 27 (Deepseek, -1.5%), which also marked its last 1% decline. However, both morning selloffs ended by 11:00 AM, with the index gradually recovering through the afternoon. This price action suggests that buying interest remains intact, as the
- [Why Breakouts Have Worked So Well](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/why-breakouts-have-worked-so-well/) - Key PointsThe combination of a tepid gain alongside strong supportive breadth continued on Wednesday, pushing the SPX to a fresh all-time high. This has further extended the index’s breakout from its most recent pattern. Today, we’re focusing on the two most important uptrend traits: successful bullish patterns and sailed bearish patterns. Uptrend TraitsAs
- [The Two Most Important Uptrend Traits](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-two-most-important-uptrend-traits/) - Key PointsThe combination of a tepid gain alongside strong supportive breadth continued on Wednesday, pushing the SPX to a fresh all-time high. This has further extended the index’s breakout from its most recent pattern. Today, we’re focusing on the two most important uptrend traits: successful bullish patterns and sailed bearish patterns. Uptrend TraitsAs we
- [2/20/25 - Three Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/2-20-25-three-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Bullish Pattern Breakouts CBOE Oversold and Near Support ROST, MSFT (updated) Bullish Pattern Breakouts This is a weekly chart of CBOE
- [Breakouts & 1% Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-1-moves/) - Key Points The SPX started the holiday-shortened week with a modest 24 bps gain, highlighted by a late-session spike. This pushed the index above its intra-day mid-point for the 13th time in the last 16 sessions—a strong and consistent pace. Combined with positive breadth in 7 of the last 10 days, the SPX closed at
- [SPX, the Dollar & META](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-the-dollar-meta/) - SPX Weekly Track Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was the SPX’s resilience in the face of hotter inflation numbers, snapping a modest two-week losing streak. The index also posted its first 1% advance since mid-January, rebounding from the middle-dotted line of its long-term trading channel again—a key demand zone since early 2024. While
- [Week of 2/18/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-2-18-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Trading Channels Last week’s highlight was the SPX’s resilience in the face of hotter inflation numbers, snapping a modest two-week losing streak. The index also posted its first 1% advance since mid-January, rebounding from the middle-dotted line of its long-term trading channel again—a key demand zone since early 2024. While
- [Friday Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/friday-charts/) - Today, we’re focusing on the patterns. With the SPX closing above 6,100, the potential cup and handle pattern we’ve been watching officially was triggered – target 6,425. As is always the case, the initial breakout is tentative, with a follow through being needed to keep it alive. And as long as it does remain
- [Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-2/) - Key Points The SPX logged its first 1% gain since 1/17 on Thursday, which was 17 trading days ago. That was the longest run without one since 30 straight from 11/7/24 through 12/19/24. It’s also the first 1% absolute move of February, an obviously slower pace thus far compared to the SIX (3 up, 3
- [2/14/25 - 3 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/2-14-25-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts ADP, QCOM, GDDY Update AMZN Watch list BRK.B, EYE, KEYS, TJX As we’ll discuss
- [1/24/25 - Two Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-24-25-two-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts PODD, GILD Watch list GOOGL, META, SPOT, FTNT As we’ll discuss in more detail inside
- [Respecting Support](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/respecting-support/) - Key Points The SPX wasted no time in snapping back from yesterday’s hot inflation numbers, with the index rallying from 6,000 in the opening minutes, continuing to advance through 1:00 PM and moving sideways for the final three hours. That kept the string of strong closes alive, with the SPX now finishing above its
- [Dissecting the Trading Range](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/dissecting-the-trading-range/) - Key Points The S&P 500 scratched and clawed its way to a 0.7% gain on Monday, which was the index’s fourth gain in five trading sessions. The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point and has had positive breadth 5/6 days, as well. This is the veritable trifecta of strong daily price action
- [The Market Strength Indicator](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-market-strength-indicator/) - Key Points By the slimmest of margins, the S&P 500 scratched out a tiny 3 bps gain on Tuesday. Appropriately, breadth was as close to neutral as it could have been (52% positive); the best part about the innocuous movement was that the index again closed near its daily highs. That makes it
- [Key Weekly Support Lines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-weekly-support-lines/) - Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle of its long-term trading channel, which has acted as a key demand zone since the start of 2024. As noted in prior reports, the only significant break below this middle-dotted line occurred during the early August 2024 sell-off. That was a
- [Week of 2/10/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-2-10-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Trading Channels Last week’s marginal decline pulled the SPX back toward the middle of its long-term trading channel, which has acted as a key demand zone since the start of 2024. As noted in prior reports, the only significant break below this middle-dotted line occurred during the early August 2024
- [Stock Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/stock-chart-rundown/) - Post-Earnings PLTR With this week’s huge reaction to earnings, PLTR’s 14-week RSI has shot back to 82, approaching the recent high of 87. That level was reached in mid-December, right before the stock hit a short-term top. It then dropped nearly 30% from that peak to the early January low, but that’s hardly detectable on
- [A Key Indicator](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-key-indicator/) - Key Points For the third straight day, the SPX opened lower, pivoted, rallied, and closed near its intraday highs. The net move, again, was small, with the index tacking on just 39 bps. However, with nearly 70% advancing stocks, it was the broadest up-day of the week (and month). The next step, of course,
- [Uptrend Traits](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/uptrend-traits-2/) - Key Points The SPX trended higher all day on Tuesday and closed near its highs on neutral volume. That ended its short two-day losing streak and pulled it further from Monday’s opening gap low. While daily movement remains erratic, the index has now closed above its intraday midpoint in six of the last seven sessions.
- [Turnaround Mondays](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/turnaround-mondays/) - Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an initial 2% decline into a 76-bps loss. The index finished near its intra-day highs again, which was its fifth close above the intra-day mid-point in the last six sessions. This also was the fourth straight
- [Another Turnaround Monday](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-turnaround-monday/) - Key Points The SPX – along with many risky assets – finished well off its lows yesterday, turning an initial 2% decline into a 76-bps loss. The index finished near its intra-day highs again, which was its fifth close above the intra-day mid-point in the last six sessions. This also was the fourth straight
- [February'25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/february25/) - SPX – Key January Stats +2.7% monthly gain -Up 12/20 trading days -Positive breadth 12/20 trading days -Closed above mid-point 12/20 days -Avg. daily gain +71bps -Avg. daily loss -73bps -THREE 1% gains -THREE 1% declines Patterns In January, two new chart formations got triggered – a bullish falling wedge pattern…
- [Key Post Earnings Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-post-earnings-charts/) - META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday in response to it. In total, the stock now is riding a nine-day winning streak, which is the second longest in its history: In late September 2015, it was up 11 straight. We’ll recall that happened during a snapback between
- [Post Earnings Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/post-earnings-charts/) - META META was rallying before its earnings announcement this Wednesday and continued to rally yesterday in response to it. In total, the stock now is riding a nine-day winning streak, which is the second longest in its history: In late September 2015, it was up 11 straight. We’ll recall that happened during a snapback between
- [Pick Your Favorite Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pick-your-favorite-pattern/) - Key Points It felt and looked like a FOMC day yesterday – even before 2:00 PM this time – and by 4:00, the damage was ultimately limited. The SPX closed slightly above its intra-day mid-point, as Powell uttered just enough encouraging inflation language to stop the bleeding. Between that and a few solid early earnings
- [The Two Wild Days Before FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-two-wild-days-before-fomc/) - Key Points The SPX snapped back from Monday’s 1.5% decline and just missed logging a 1% gain. Thus, the index is down an innocuous 55 bps in two days in front of today’s FOMC decision. Today, we’re discussing the SPX’s performance in the weeks following rate decisions and the current bifurcation under the market’s
- [The Epic Breadth Shift](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-epic-breadth-shift/) - Key Points The SPX logged its third 1% loss of January on Monday, and at -1.46%, it was the worst showing since 1/15 (-1.54%). The day’s final buying spree helped the index close above its mid-point, as well. Overall, the intra-day range was extremely narrow for such a big net move, as SPY hugged the
- [Key Charts & Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-charts-levels/) - Key Points On Friday afternoon, seeing the SPX close at a new all-time weekly high and followed through upon the prior week’s bullish engulfing pattern, both of which were constructive. With the Deepseek phenomenon wreaking havoc on global markets today, that hardly matters now. What does matter now is getting a sense on
- [The Next Phase](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-phase-2/) - Key Points The SPX leveraged the huge spike in the final 15 minutes yesterday to notch its fourth straight gain. This now is the longest winning streak since 11/29 – 12/4 (also 4). The last longer streak was 11/18 – 11/26 (7). With positive breadth for the seventh time in the last eight trading
- [Pausing at New All-Time Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pausing-at-new-all-time-highs/) - Key Points The SPX logged its third straight gain on Wednesday, marginally (and briefly) making a new all-time high. At that high (this time officially above 6,100), the index was up 1% before fading over the final four hours. The rotation continued, this time into Growth stocks, with nearly everything else taking a breather.
- [The Strong Breadth Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-strong-breadth-streak/) - Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings advancing, which hasn’t happened in at least 30 years. Intra-Day The SPX logged its fifth gain in the last six days to start the four-day week, closed on its highs, had its best breadth (83% advancing stocks)
- [Extreme Positive Internals Continue](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/extreme-positive-internals-continue/) - Key Point Yesterday marked the sixth straight day with at least two-thirds of the S&P 500’s holdings advancing, which hasn’t happened in at least 30 years. Intra-Day The SPX logged its fifth gain in the last six days to start the four-day week, closed on its highs, had its best breadth (83% advancing stocks)
- [Another Weekly Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-weekly-reversal/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held on for its second 1% gain of the week on Friday despite the late-day sell-off. The last time we had two 1% advances in a calendar week was election week (election day and the day after). The late day sell-off prevented the index
- [Week of 1/21/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-1-21-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bullish Engulfing Pattern The SPX held on for its second 1% gain of the week on Friday despite the late-day sell-off. The last time we had two 1% advances in a calendar week was election week (election day and the day after). The late day sell-off prevented the index
- [Four Straight 70% SPX Breadth Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four-straight-70-spx-breadth-days/) - Key Point The SPX notched its fourth consecutive trading session with at least 70% of its holdings advancing on Thursday. Of the 12 prior instances since 1985, the index was higher 11/12 times nine and 12 months later (92% win-rate) with an average gain of 8.7% and 10.6%, respectively. Intra-Day The SPX zig-zagged all
- [November 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november-2024/)
- [January 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january-2025/)
- [Battleground](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/battleground/) - Key Point With the SPX’s bearish breakdown zone being below 5,850 and the bullish breakout zone being above 5,650, a true pattern battleground has materialized. Said differently, the 200 SPX points between these levels is the only range in which both pattern targets simultaneously can stay alive. Intra-Day Yesterday’s intra-day price action was pretty
- [RSP’s Positive Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rsps-positive-reversal/) - Intra-Day The SPX logged an old-fashioned positive reversal and closed near its highs on strong breadth on Monday. We say “old-fashioned” because it seems like it’s been a while since we had a session like this. And when days like yesterday have appeared, they’ve happened in a vacuum. That will need to change going forward.
- [1/14/25 - 2 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-14-25-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts WES Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support MLM Shorts
- [Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-bearish-engulfing-patterns-2/) - Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish engulfing pattern for the SPX, which last happened during the week of July 15th, 2024. As is clear on the chart, three of the four biggest corrective trading periods since the start of 2023 began with weekly bearish engulfing
- [Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-bearish-engulfing-patterns/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish engulfing pattern for the SPX, which last happened during the week of July 15th, 2024. As is clear on the chart, three of the four biggest corrective trading periods since the start of 2023 began with
- [Week of 1/13/25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-1-13-25/) - SPX Weekly Track Weekly Bearish Engulfing Patterns Among other things, last week’s sell-off produced a weekly bearish engulfing pattern for the SPX, which last happened during the week of July 15th, 2024. As is clear on the chart, three of the four biggest corrective trading periods since the start of 2023 began with
- [Key Levels & Rally Attempts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-levels-rally-attempts/) - Key Point From just about any perspective, it’s clear that the SPX is at a critical technical juncture: It’s trying to avoid completing the multi-month topping formation, while struggling to leverage recent bounce attempts near key support zones. Intra-Day The SPX logged a tiny gain on Wednesday – the day before the National Day
- [Breadth Update](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-update/) - Key Point Through yesterday, 53% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving averages and 24% were still above their 50-DMAs. Both numbers have been dropping since December began, and neither are at near extreme lows yet. Intra-Day The SPX logged its first 1% decline of the year yesterday, wasting a positive
- [Judging the Bounce](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/judging-the-bounce-2/) - Key Point Since October’23, the SPX has routinely gotten overbought on the short-term two-hour chart. Most of the time, that coincided with making new highs – neither of which has happened again this time… yet. Intra-Day The SPX logged its second straight advance on Monday, but it spent the final four and a half
- [1/7/25 - Two Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-7-25-two-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts BSX Buy the dip in an uptrend COST Severely oversold & near support
- [Two Way Volatility in 2025](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-way-volatility-in-2025/) - Key Point Friday marked the SPX’s first 1% gain of 2025, but it was the SIXTH absolute 1% move in the last 11 trading days. That’s a rate of 55%, which is very high. Recent bouts of high vol like this eventually led to key pattern breakouts and extended upside follow through. Intra-Day The
- [Long Losing Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/long-losing-streaks-2/) - Key Point The SPX’s five-day decline now is the longest losing streak since six straight from April 12-19, 2024. That was the final stage of the ultimate 6% sell-off from the 3/27/24 high (three weeks). Thus, while it may not feel like it, this drawdown now has lasted longer than the March-April edition. Intra-Day The
- [1/3/25 - Two Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-3-25-two-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts DLTR Buy the dip in an uptrend GNRC Severely oversold & near support
- [January Charts & Stats](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january-charts-stats/) - SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed above mid-point 12/21 days -Avg. daily gain +62bps -Avg. daily loss -63bps -TWO 1% gains -THREE 1% declines Patterns We had a little bit of everything from a pattern perspective in December. First, we
- [January'25](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january25/) - SPX – Key December Stats -2.5% monthly loss -Down 12/21 trading days -Negative breadth 16/21 days -Closed above mid-point 12/21 days -Avg. daily gain +62bps -Avg. daily loss -63bps -TWO 1% gains -THREE 1% declines Patterns We had a little bit of everything from a pattern perspective in December. First, we
- [Grand Finale’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/grand-finale24/) - Thank You First and foremost, thank you ALL for supporting CappThesis in 2024. It was an epic year for a multitude of reasons. Our 6,100-price target was hit 11 months after being triggered. Even more impressive was that 10 different SPX bullish patterns achieved their upside objectives in 2024. This doesn’t happen every year, but
- [Next Steps](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/next-steps/) - Key Point The SPX snapped back on Friday and finally notched a positive breadth session in December – just missing a 90% day. The index’s 1% gain was its first since the day after the election. In isolation, it was a solid bounce, but we’ll need much more than a reflexive up-move to put the
- [Indicators, Sentiment & Losing Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/indicators-sentiment-losing-streaks/) - Key Point Needless to say, the December performance (of nearly everything aside from MAGS 7) has been decidedly lower, making some of the indicators we track extremely depressed already. The obvious concern is that the biggest names still are elevated and that if they catch down to the others, it will exacerbate the sell-off. Below
- [Important Post-Fed Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/important-post-fed-charts/) - Key Point The FOMC’s hawkish cut unleashed one of the harshest declines we’ve seen in 2024. We assess the updated technical landscape below. Topics Covered Market -Bottom of the channel -Short-term -% of oversold SPX stocks -Long-term trend -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth Key ETFs -Extremely Oversold ETFs -SPX, 10-Year
- [Powell’s Turn](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/powells-turn/) - Key Point The SPX has had a very good track record two weeks after Fed meetings in 2024. And the year’s last FOMC meeting today is coming with most of the market having moved lower through all of December and the leaders very short-term extended. This conundrum has dominated every market-related news headline and chat
- [The OTHER Breadth Streak that No One is Talking About](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-other-breadth-streak-that-no-one-is-talking-about/) - Key Point The SPX’s negative breadth streak now is at 11 straight, but none of the days have been extreme. In fact, the index now has gone 39 straight trading days without a sub-20% day, which is the second longest streak since (at least) October’23. Topics Market -No sub-20% days -MAGS vs. RSP -Live patterns
- [12/17/24 - 2 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-17-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts PANW, CDNS Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support
- [Week of 12/16/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-12-16-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Negative breadth -RSP, SPX, MAGS, SMH -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance Key Charts -US Dollar -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF -SMH Semis -MAGS -XLU Utilities -Ethereum
- [NVDA - Dec'24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/nvda-dec24/) - NVDA We cited NVDA as a buy idea in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through the 127-level of the pictured cup and handle pattern. The stock endured a big decline a week later on 10/15, held, then trended higher until its earnings spike on 11/21. The
- [3 Buys, NVDA & Market Comments](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-buys-nvda-market-comments/) - Topics Discussed Buy the dip in an uptrend SRE Bullish Pattern Breakouts ISRG, REG Key Charts -Sector December Performance -NVDA -Daily price action -Index breadth -Live SPX patterns For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern
- [ SPX vs. RSP](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-vs-rsp/) - Key Point: The RSP Equal Weight ETF has lost ground in 6 of the last 8 days and has dropped to the lower portion of its trading range, while the SPX remains near its highs. We’ve seen RSP relative weakness many times before… read more below. Topics Covered: Market -RSP Equal Wgt SPX ETF -RSP
- [Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/digestion-3/) - Key Points: The SPX’s pause has come when it was supposed to – from an overbought s/t RSI, proximity to the channel’s upper line and breaking below the s/t trend line. So far, it appears like normal digestive price action. Topics Covered: Market -Short-term -Channel -1% moves -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action
- [The Bearish Breadth Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-bearish-breadth-streak/) - Key Points: We’re taking a close look at the current 6-day negative breadth streak vs. the 6-day streak in April. There are five key differences between the periods, with one clue to watch for now. Topics Covered: Market -The bearish breadth streak -Now vs. April -Five key differences -What’s next -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats
- [SPX 6,100](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-6100/) - Three-Week Gains The SPX was up 4/5 days last week and notched its third straight weekly gain. However, at +3.7% over that time, it’s not close to the best 3-week runs we’ve seen in 2024. Does this suggest the market is running out of steam or simply that we’re seeing typical bull market (boring) price
- [SPX 6,099.97](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-6099-97/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF -XLY Consumer Discretionary SPX Weekly Track Three-Week Gains The SPX was up 4/5 days last week
- [Week of 12/9/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-12-9-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -3-week gains -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -SPX 6,099.97 -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance Key Charts -US Dollar -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF -NDX -XLY Consumer Discretionary -ARKK -Bitcoin SPX Weekly Track
- [ARKK, JETS and Bitcoin](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/arkk-jets-and-bitcoin/) - Key Points: Given the SPX’s small move yesterday, we’re focusing on other areas today in the Key Charts section. Topics Covered: Market -Sentiment -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -ARKK (2) -JETS (3) -Bitcoin (5) Intra-Day The SPX’s modest 4-day winning streak ended with yesterday’s tiny loss.
- [12/6/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-6-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts PM, CLX Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support Shorts Bearish Pattern
- [Milestones](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/milestones-2/) - Key Points: The SPX is close to 6,100 and Bitcoin is above 100k. We’re taking a close look across various charts for both. Topics Covered: Market -6,100 -Uptrend traits -Overbought – now vs. Nov’23 -Short-term -Trading channel -Pattern grid -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -Bitcoin –
- [Boring, Not Bearish](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/boring-not-bearish/) - Key Point: By one measurement (the 2-day Average True Range), the SPX has just logged its lowest two-day range since March over the first two trading days of this week. Topics Covered: Market -Trading channel -Average True Range -Pattern grid -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -ESPO
- [12/3/24 - 2 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-3-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts AAPL Buy the dip in an uptrend AMD Severely oversold & near support
- [Our Market Stance](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/our-market-stance/) - Key Point: Consistently having live bullish patterns and targets in play tells us that we’re in an uptrend. And if the market is in an uptrend, we should be looking for bullish trade ideas. Topics Covered: Market -Our market stance -Pattern grid -Three live bullish patterns -Two potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance
- [December'24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/december24/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -UFO Space -ARKK -IGV Software -XLY Consumer Discretionary -IWP Mid-Cap Growth -IAI Broker Dealers -TLT -Gold -Ethereum -Bitcoin SPX – Key Monthly Stats -5.7% monthly gain -Up 15/20 trading days -Positive
- [11/7/24 - 3 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-7-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts COST, MGY, TSLA Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support Shorts Bearish
- [Happy Thanksgiving](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/happy-thanksgiving/) - Key Point: Two studies below depict the historical positive bias of the days right before and after Thanksgiving AND from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving through the second day of the new year. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Thanksgiving seasonality -The next leg -Short-term -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key
- [The Smallest 6-Day Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-smallest-6-day-winning-streak/) - Key Point: The SPX logged its sixth straight gain yesterday, with each daily advance being less than 0.5%. The index’s 6-day rate of change now is +2%, which is the smallest of the longest winning streaks of 2024. This is NOT bearish. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Winning streaks 2024 -Rotating leaders -Small moves -Live patterns
- [Trading Channels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trading-channels/) - After 2% Weekly Declines The SPX snapped back by 1.7% last week, again showing buyers’ continued willingness to buy the biggest one-week dips. Here’s the updated table that we first showed in last Monday’s Roadmap piece. The advance was slightly better than the 1.2% average, which brings the win rate to nearly 60% after -2%
- [Channel Surfing](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/channel-surfing/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading boxes -Thanksgiving seasonality -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -US Dollar & SPX -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF -XLB Materials SPX Weekly Track After 2% Weekly
- [Week of 11/25/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-25-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -After 2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -S/t channel -Trading boxes -Thanksgiving seasonality -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -US Dollar & SPX -TLT 20+Year Treasury Bond
- [Best Breadth in Two Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/best-breadth-in-two-weeks/) - Key Point; Yesterday was one of the strongest sessions we’ve had in a while, with 87% of the S&P 500’s components advancing. It was the index’s best breadth day since 11/5 (88%) and the second best since 8/8 (92%). Topics Covered: Market -Best breadth in two weeks -Sector performance -SPX vs. RSP -Rotation -Live patterns -Potential
- [Many Bullish Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/many-bullish-charts/) - Many Bullish Charts Even the most consistent trends are destined to be broken – no matter how short or long they are. Thus, the response to a broken trend is what tells the true story. During the week ending 11/15, various short-term uptrends were broken as the market pulled back. Given the preceding spikes during
- [NVDA Chart Preview](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/nvda-chart-preview/) - Earnings NVDA – First, let’s review the two pattern breakouts that we cited in a Chart Trades piece from 10/8 – as it was breaking out through the 127-level of the pictured cup and handle pattern. The stock endured a big decline a week later on 10/15, held, and has been making higher highs and
- [3 Buys, NVDA & Market](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-buys-nvda-market/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts DDOG, ALB Buy the dip in an uptrend ERIE Severely oversold & near support
- [The Most Likely Path](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-likely-path/) - Key Point Yesterday on X, I showed two conflicting SPX charts, asking people which path was more likely to occur. Topics Covered: Market -X Poll -1% moves -Trading Boxes -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -XOP Oil & Exploration-JETS -German DAX -Bitcoin Intra-Day The
- [-2% Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/2-weeks/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -10-Year Yield -Bitcoin vs. SPX SPX Weekly Track Weekly Loss of at Least -2% The SPX followed the best weekly gain of 2024 with
- [Week of 11/18/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-18-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -2% weekly losses -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -10-Year Yield -Bitcoin vs. SPX -XBI Biotech -IWC Micro Caps -XLE Energy -IAI Broker Dealers
- [3 Chart Trades](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-chart-trades/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-targetd 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Buy the dip in an uptrend VZ Bullish Pattern Breakouts T, BRK.B Severely oversold & near support
- [The Pause Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-pause-continues-2/) - Key Point In Tuesday’s piece, “Short-term Stretched,” we reviewed a few charts that suggested the market was due for a pause. Said pause has been happening this week, and today we’re talking about potential drawdown scenarios. Topics Covered: Market -Short-term -SPX vs. 20-DMA -Bollinger Bands -Daily trading channel -Weekly trading channel -Breakout zone support -Potential
- [4 Buys & Market Commentary](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-buys-market-commentary/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-targetd 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Buy the dip in an uptrend MSFT (multiple charts), VZ Bullish Pattern Breakouts T, BRK.B Severely oversold &
- [IGV Software Focus](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/igv-software-focus/) - Key Points: We’re focusing on the IGV Software ETF today. It’s been an obvious leader and now is short-term extended. However, its big multi-year breakout is what matters most. (Brief SPX commentary follows.) Topics Covered: Market -IGV Software – various charts -Live SPX patterns -Potential SPX patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth
- [Short-term Stretched](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/short-term-stretched/) - Key Point: Given that the SPX is coming off the best weekly gain in over a year, it’s not outlandish to call this market short-term stretched. Seeing some consolidation soon would help new patterns to take shape. Below are a few charts showing how far last week’s big reaction has taken the SPX the last
- [Week of 11/11/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-11-11-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Four percent weekly gains -Long-term trading channel -SPX vs. weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -10-Year Yield -ARKK -IWM R2k -XBI Biotech -PSP Private Equity -EWJ
- [Indicator Checkup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/indicator-checkup/) - Key Points: Not every indicator is overbought now, but many are near the high-end of their respective ranges. We’re looking at three of the most popular ones from various time frames and discussing what they are telling us below. Topics Covered: Market -Bollinger Bands (2) -MACD (2) -RSI (3) -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP
- [Another Bullish Pattern Target Achieved](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-bullish-pattern-target-achieved/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX hitting the 5,900-target on Wednesday, it’s now the TENTH successful bullish pattern we’ve seen over the last 13 months. Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5,900 target achieved -Live patterns -Potential patterns -A lot of new 52-week highs -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst
- [The Opening Gap](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-opening-gap/) - Key Points: 1- The early reaction to President Trump’s huge win last night is creating big gaps in the charts everywhere we look. We’ll be reviewing the key ones below. Topics Covered: -SPX – various -IWM R2k (2) -KRE Regional Banks -XLF Financials (2) -10-Year Yield -US Dollar -Bitcoin Daily Stats -Daily price action
- [Election Day Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/election-day-charts/) - Key Points: Today we’re looking at 10 election-related charts – none of which are related to polls, prediction or betting markets. These are some of the most interesting charts and studies that we’ve run and/or come across recently. For each one, we provide the chart, the source, the source’s comments and our take: -The
- [Pre-Election Chart Setups](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pre-election-chart-setups/) - Key Points: 1- Since the breakout to new highs in September, the SPX has formed two trading boxes. Box number three now has taken shape. See more below. 2- The index’s three bullish patterns remain in play, but last Thursday’s gap down also triggered a small bearish pattern. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Rate decision
- [November'24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november24-2/) - SPX – Key Monthly Stats – October -1.0% monthly loss -Down 12/23 trading days -Negative breadth 14/23 days -Closed above mid-point 14/20 days -Avg. daily gain +50bps -Avg. daily loss -49bps -ONE 1% gain -TWO 1% declines Patterns It was a quiet month for patterns in October, with no upside or
- [November’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november24/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly charts -Weekly channel -Seasonality -Studies Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -JETS Airlines -KBWB Banks -US Dollar -10-Year Yield -IGV Software -SMH Semis -EPU Peru -XLE Energy -IHF HC Providers -Uranium -Bitcoin SPX – Key Monthly Stats -1.0% monthly loss -Down 12/23 trading
- [A Trend that Needs to Right Itself](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-trend-that-needs-to-right-itself/) - Key Points: 1- Over the last eight trading days, the SPX has had negative breadth six times. We break down what this means below. 2- The last time the SPX had six negative sessions in eight days was from 8/27 – 9/6. Do we recall what happened right after that? The SPX went on a
- [The Last 29 Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-last-29-days/) - Yesterday’s price action did very little to change the index’s technical complexion. In fact, we could have said that (and often have) about any of the trading days since 9/19. What’s so significant about 9/19? The SPX broke through 5,650 on that date and has not revisited that zone since. It’s been 29
- [One of the Quietest Months in 3 Years](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-of-the-quietest-months-in-3-years/) - Key Points: 1- With just two 1% absolute moves in October, it’s the second lowest monthly total of 2024 for the SPX (with two days left). June had just one. 2- With today’s apparent strong opening, the XLC Communication Services ETF will achieve its biggest target of 93, which was triggered last November. Topics
- [Since the Last Breakout](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/since-the-last-breakout/) - Key Points: 1- It’s been 27 trading days since the SPX broke out from 5,650 on 9/19. We look at the key stats below. 2- IWM led the major indices to start the week and now is within striking distance of recapturing the 225-zone. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Stats since the 9/19 breakout -Live
- [10/29/24 - Banks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-29-24-banks/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts JPM, BAC, C Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support Shorts
- [Week of 10/28/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-28-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly losing streaks -Long-term trading channel -Trendlines & drawdowns -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -Crude Oil -UNG Natural Gas -SMH Semis -XLY Consumer Discr -XHB Homebuilders -URA
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 10/25/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-10-25-24/) - Chart of the Week – 12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns Earlier in the week, we discussed the five factors needed for an uptrend. One of them was seeing continued successful bullish formations. Specifically, those work by a security or index utilizing the following steps: 1-Stop going down 2-Log a higher low 3-Construct a bullish
- [12 Months of Successful Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-months-of-successful-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- We’re just about 12 months removed from the Oct’23 low. Since then, there have been NINE bullish formations, and nine upside objectives attained…. 2- It doesn’t happen often, but the SPX now is sporting live bullish patterns in its weekly, daily, 15- and 5-minute charts. Topics Covered: Market – 12 Months
- [10/25/24 - 3 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-25-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts VTR, BANC Buy the dip in an uptrend GIS Severely oversold & near support Shorts
- [Uptrend Traits](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/uptrend-traits/) - Good Closes One streak that no one is talking about extended on Tuesday: the SPX closed above its intra-day mid-point for the third straight day. This has been a key factor during this latest up-trending phase. Overall, since 9/9, the SPX has closed above its mid-point 24/32 trading days, or 75% of the time.
- [Uptrend Traits, Industrials & Vol](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/uptrend-traits-industrials-vol/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s long streak without consecutive declines ended yesterday, but the index continues to close above its intra-day mid-point – one of five key uptrend traits we’re reviewing below. 2- The VIX has quietly been making higher lows since mid-August. The 24-level is key resistance. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Good closes
- [Sub-20% Breadth Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/sub-20-breadth-days/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX ended yesterday with 16% stocks up for the session. Since the Oct’23 low, it was the 16th day of sub-20% advancing stocks. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -20% breadth days -Short-term -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -GDX
- [Six Straight Weekly Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/six-straight-weekly-gains/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -GDX Gold Miners (2) -XRT Retail -Crude Oil SPX Weekly Track SPX Weekly Winning Streaks The SPX was up 3/5 days last week and closed at the
- [Week of 10/21/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-21-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Weekly patterns -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -GDX Gold Miners (2) -KRE Regional Banks -XRT Retail -IHI Medical Devices -URA Uranium (2) -EWI Italy
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/18/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-10-18-24/) - Chart of the Week – NFLX Within the Chart Trades report, we’ve started to do write ups for key stocks before and/or after earnings for key stocks. Here’s the note from Friday’s piece that highlighted NFLX. Upgrade to a premium membership to receiving Chart Trades, which hit your inbox early in the morning twice a
- [10/18/24 - 2 Buys & Earnings](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-18-24-2-buys-earnings/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts AZO Buy the dip in an uptrend RNA Severely oversold & near support Shorts Bearish Pattern
- [Small Caps - Now vs. July](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/small-caps-now-vs-july/) - Key Points: 1- IWM broke out from the daily bullish pattern and has a target of 253. 2- The recent comeback also has retriggered a weekly bullish formation, which has an upside objective up at 270. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Small Caps deep dive -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth
- [New Highs and a Bearish Engulfing Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-highs-and-a-bearish-engulfing-pattern/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday, 114 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, which is the second most we’ve seen over the last year (118 on 3/21/24). 2- That happened early in the session, but with the rollover, the index logged its SIXTH bearish engulfing pattern since December’23. See more below. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day
- [Strong Breadth & Stretched Sentiment](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-breadth-stretched-sentiment/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged two straight 80% breadth days for the first time since three in a row from 7/10-7/12/24. Before that, it last happened from 11/2-11/3/23. 2- The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index just hit Extreme Greed for the first time since 9/30, which it stayed at for
- [10/15/24 - 2 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-15-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts CCL Buy the dip in an uptrend DRI Severely oversold & near support
- [Week of 10/14/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-14-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Long-term trading channel -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -TLT -KRE Regional Banks -SMH Semis -KWEB China Internet -XLI Industrials -SKYY Cloud -IYT Transportation -Bitcoin SPX Weekly Track
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/11/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-10-11-24/) - Chart of the Week – Tech Leadership Last week, Technology was the leading sector on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The last time that Tech was the best-performing sector for at least two consecutive trading sessions was 8/12 – 8/13, which was right in the middle of the epic comeback from the summer correction. In fact, back
- [US Dollar, Rates & Crude Oil](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/us-dollar-rates-crude-oil/) - Key Points: 1- The US Dollar’s 10-day rate of change now is close to +2.9%, which is the biggest 10-day move since September’22. 2- Crude Oil is close to completing a two-month inverse cup and handle pattern – similar to the XLE Energy ETF. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily
- [10/11/24 - 3 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-11-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts EOG, XOM Buy the dip in an uptrend TSN Severely oversold & near support
- [Tech Leadership & Strong Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/tech-leadership-strong-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- The Technology sector led for the second straight day on Wednesday. The last time that Tech was the best-performing sector for at least two consecutive trading sessions was 8/12 – 8/13. 2- Yesterday, 75% of the S&P 500 advanced, which was the best showing in three weeks (76% on 9/16).
- [Responding to 1% Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/responding-to-1-declines/) - Responding to 1% Declines As noted yesterday: “during the most intense trading periods in 2024, clusters of big down moves led to the biggest drawdowns – see April and August. Thus, we had to wait longer for buyers to return. However, during the other times, 1% declines were immediately followed by 1% gains.”
- [The Response](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-response-3/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX followed a 1% decline with a 1% gain yesterday for the SIXTH time since last year’s low. However, it’s the first time it’s happened since early April. 2- Thus far, the SPX’s short-term RSI has avoided hitting oversold territory. We’ve seen this happen during the most persistent phases of
- [Spotted – October Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spotted-october-volatility/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX just went 20 trading sessions between 1% declines, which is the longest run between 1% down moves since 52 from 5/1-7/16/24. 2-The obvious question now is whether yesterday’s action marks the resumption of the two-way volatility we saw from mid-July through September. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -1% declines -Two-way volatility
- [10/8/24 - 2 Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-8-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue 👉 Two areas worked on Monday – Energy and NVDA. We’re talking about both of them this morning. Buys Bullish Pattern
- [Four Straight Up Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four-straight-up-weeks/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -XLF Financials SPX Weekly Track Weekly Winning Streaks Despite logging gains in 3/5 days last week, the SPX only was up 22 bps week
- [Week of 10/7/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-10-7-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -XOP Oil & Exploration -TUR Turkey -IGE Natural Resources -XLF Financials -SLV Silver -IHF HC
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 10/4/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-10-4-24/) - Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Opening Look piece, which Trader & Professional members have access to. Upgrade to start receiving Opening Look every morning before the market opens. There now have been 10 trading days since the +1.7% move on 9/19. As we’ll recall that huge advance
- [October 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october-2024/)
- [Post Jobs Setup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/post-jobs-setup/) - Key Points: 1- Over the last 10 trading days, the SPX has alternated gains and losses, with the only absolute move greater than 40 bps being this Tuesday’s 90 bps decline. This has formed the latest trading box, which could be challenged today. 2- With the big reaction in rates to the jobs numbers
- [Breakouts and Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-and-drawdowns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above its most recent pattern breakout zone (5,650), having moved sideways over the last two weeks. 2- The index’s biggest drawdowns all happened as the index cut through key uptrend lines. It’s getting close to testing another line now, stemming from the August lows. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day
- [A Familiar Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-familiar-start-2/) - A Familiar Start Even though the SPX avoided a 1% loss on Tuesday, the 93-bps decline was the worst in nearly a month. On 9/6, the index got nailed by 1.7% on the last jobs number. That was the SPX’s second 1% loss in four trading sessions, as it fell every day of that
- [Another Slow Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-slow-start/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 93-bps loss on Tuesday was the worst in nearly a month (9/6). Early monthly weakness was a key trait in both August and September. 2- Both times, strong bids materialized within a few days, which completely shifted momentum back to the positive. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Slow starts
- [10/2/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/10-2-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Crude Oil, the Energy ETFs and stocks have been looking for a bottom in recent weeks, which we’ve discussed numerous times
- [October and Q4’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october-and-q424/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -Q4 Seasonality -Q4 studies Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -UNG Natural Gas -10-Year Yield -US Dollar -FXI China -JETS Airlines -MAGS 7 -XLE Energy -IWM R2k -Bitcoin SPX – Key September Stats +2.0% monthly gain -Up 12/20 trading days -Positive
- [The Last 11 Months](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-last-11-months/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 11-month % gain is +36.8%. That’s the best 11-month run since the period ending February’21 (+47.5%). 2- We compare all of the past instances of at least +35% from 1970 through 2024 below. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Weekly winning streaks -Strong 11-month gains 1970-2024 -Live patterns -AVWAP
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/27/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-9-27-24/) - Chart of the Week – AAPL This write-up appeared in this past Friday’s Chart Trades piece. It was one of five trade ideas we shared last week, which every premium membership level has access to. Upgrade to see all five recommendations.. Before we get into the details, I want to stress that the ticker symbols
- [Hovering](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hovering-2/) - Key Points: 1- From the September 6th low point, the SPX has gained nearly 7%. This is only the fifth multi-week advance of at least 6% since the October’23 low point. 2- Over the last week, the SPX’s short-term RSI has hovered near overbought territory. This won’t last, but it doesn’t mean a big
- [9/27/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-27-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts AAPL, VLTO Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support
- [Clusters of Big Gains - Revisited](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/clusters-of-big-gains-revisited/) - Key Points: 1- In strong markets, clusters of big gains that happen after corrective action can eventually lead to long, consistent uptrends. 2- Over the last 10 trading sessions, the SPX has logged one +/-1% move, with just two moves greater than 50 bps. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Clusters of big gains -After
- [The S&P 500 vs. its RSI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-sp-500-vs-its-rsi/) - If you haven’t heard, the SPX has been making new all-time highs for nearly a week, but its 14-day RSI hasn’t been overbought since 7/16 the former new all-time high, which happened right before the summer correction commenced. This now is a string of 49 straight days, which is the longest stretch between overbought readings
- [RSI – Confirming or Diverging?](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rsi-confirming-or-diverging/) - Key Points: 1- Overall, of the 11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs, just two are currently overbought – XLY Consumer Discretionary and XLU Utilities. 2- The S&P 500’s RSI of 65 puts it smack-dab in the middle of its sectors. This isn’t bearish. See more below. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -SPX & RSI -Sectors -Bollinger
- [Hanging Around](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hanging-around/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +6.2% from the September low and is hanging close to its recent all-time high. The short-term RSI is near overbought, but not extreme. 2- We review some pullback scenarios below and discuss the odds of a bigger top potentially taking shape. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Short-term rallies
- [9/24/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-24-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts UBER, ROL Buy the dip in an uptrend MO Severely oversold & near support
- [Weekly Winning Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-winning-streaks/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -QQQ NDX 100 SPX Weekly Track Weekly Winning Streaks The SPX advanced for the second straight week, made a new all-time high and
- [Week of 9/23/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-9-23-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly winning streaks -Weekly moving averages -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -QQQ NDX 100 -OIH Oil Services -Crude Oil -XLF Financials -FFTY Innovator IBD 50 -EIRL
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/20/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-9-20-24/) - Chart of the Week – Now vs. Spring’24 Currently, we’re still in the throes of an historically volatile period. All of the raucous back-and-forth movement from mid-July through mid-September took place UNDER 5,650 – within the trading range we’ve been profiling. Volatility typically gets elevated with the market is selling off and/or trapped in a wide
- [The Next Phase](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-phase/) - Key Points: 1- The 1.7% advance now is the SPX’s third 1% gain of September and the fifth absolute 1% move of the month. The big up-move broke the modest drought of five trading days without a 1% gain. 2- The MAGS Magnificent Seven ETF was among the leaders yesterday and broke above this
- [Two Bullish Pattern Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-bullish-pattern-breakouts/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX will be breaking out of the two bullish patterns we’ve been profiling on the open. The resulting upside targets are 5,900 and 6,180. 2- XLK Technology continues to battle two key lines – its 50-day moving average and the downtrend line from the July highs. Puncturing these same lines
- [The Cut](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-cut/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged THREE winning streaks of at least seven in the last three months. After the prior two, the SPX faded near the same zone that it’s at again now. 2- The SPX is sitting at its highest point ever for an FOMC Day. While today matters, the
- [9/17/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-17-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts NFLX Buy the dip in an uptrend BRK.B Severely oversold & near support
- [Top of the Range](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/top-of-the-range/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s six-day winning streak has been accompanied by closes near its intra-day highs. 2- The SPX has climbed all the way back to the top of the range we discussed last week – 5,650. Thus, it’s also close to triggering the potential bullish formation. Not yet. Topics Covered: Market -SPX
- [Another Five-Day Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-five-day-winning-streak/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -5-day winning streaks -Big weekly gains -Weekly SPX charts -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -XLK Technology SPX Weekly Track Five Straight Gains After logging gains every day last
- [Week of 9/20/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-9-20-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -5-day winning streaks -Big weekly gains -Weekly SPX charts -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth (SPX, NDX, R2k, DJIA) -Performance – all ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -XLK Technology -TLT
- [9/6/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-6-24/) - Market -Losing Streaks -Short-term -Breadth when Tech lags -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts –XLV Healthcare -XLI Industrials -XLF Financials
- [SPX Approaching a Key Level](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-approaching-a-key-level/) - SPX Approaching a Key Level As we know, the market’s real move happened on Wednesday with the huge positive reversal session. The SPX had just hit 5,400 for the second time in three days and looked ready to crack. It didn’t, and now the index is up nearly 4% from Wednesday’s low point. 5,400
- [The New Range](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-new-range/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has respected support at 5,400 and resistance at 5,650 the majority of time since June, including the last four weeks. 2- This is a big spot for XLK, as it’s getting close to testing a key downtrend line after marginally reclaiming its 50-day moving average. Topics Covered: Market-Intra-day-The new
- [9/13/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-13-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts TSLA, CART Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support
- [Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/reversal-3/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a huge positive reversal yesterday. We compare this one to others in the recent past. 2- 66 ETFs we track finished 2% off their intra-day lows on Wednesday. Intra-Day The SPX staged one of the largest intra-day reversals in recent history on Wednesday, pivoting around 10:50 and rallying through
- [Another +40% VIX Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-40-vix-week/) - Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Breadth -Put-call ratio -Retracements -VIX 40% weeks -VIX golden cross -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Intra-Day The positive from Friday is that the S&P 500 didn’t waste another rally attempt… however, that’s only because there WEREN’T any rally
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 9/6/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-9-6-24/) - Chart of the Week – SPX Short-Term The following chart and comments appeared in Friday’s Opening Look note. The SPX continues to come off that extremely sharp 10% rally, the majority of which took place during that eight-day win streak. That streak was bound to end, and when it did, a retracement of some sort
- [Losing Streaks and Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/losing-streaks-and-breadth/) - Key Points: –The SPX now is down three straight days. The last losing streak longer than three was six straight from 4/15 – 4/19. -That period was infected mostly by large cap tech underperformance. The downturn ended when the market’s internals started to firm despite tech relative weakness. The SPX needs to do the
- [This Trait Needs to Change](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/this-trait-needs-to-change/) - We recently discussed the rejuvenation of big moves over the last five weeks: 12 +/-1% moves in 24 trading days from 7/31 to 9/3. At a 50% rate, it lined up with 2022, when 51% of the trading days were absolute 1% moves. Just as important is how the SPX closes every day. As we
- [Searching for a Good Close](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/searching-for-a-good-close/) - Key Point: –Over the prior eleven trading sessions, the SPX has finished above its intra-day mid-point four times – a win-rate of just 36%. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Closes above the mid-point -SPX vs. 20-day MA -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs
- [9/4/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/9-4-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts TMO, COR Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support Shorts
- [A Familiar Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-familiar-start/) - Key Points -With yesterday’s big decline, the SPX now has logged 12 absolute 1% moves in the last 24 trading days, starting on 7/31 (8 up, 4 down). That’s 50% of the time, which is a lot. -For some context, in 2022, the SPX had 128 +/-1% moves (63 up, 65 down) in 252
- [September’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/september24/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -September Seasonality -Best Starts in History Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -EWM Malaysia -XLP Consumer Staples -OIH Oil Services -IWM Small Caps -US Dollar -10-Year Yield -SMH Semis -VIX -Bitcoin SPX – Key Monthly Stats +2.3% monthly gain -Up 13/22
- [Chart of the Week - 8/30/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-8-30-24/) - March’23 Officially, Thursday’s move was a down day, which gave us two straight losses. Believe it or not, this is the SPX’s first losing streak since the three consecutive declines of at least 1% from August 1-5 to start the month. With one trading day left, the index has logged 12 gains
- [8/30/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-30-24/) - Market -March’23 -November’23 -Short-term -Trading Boxes -Live patterns -Potential patterns – bullish & bearish Daily Stats -Daily price action Key Charts -XLE -JETS -RSP -RSP vs. SPX
- [Most Volatile Month Since March'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/most-volatile-month-since-march23/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s negligible down move gave the SPX its first losing streak since the three consecutive declines of at least 1% from August 1-5 to start the month. 2- Overall, the SPX has logged NINE 1% absolute moves in August, which is the most in a calendar month since March’23. Topics
- [NVDA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/nvda/) - To get a true sense of NVDA’s momentum and trend, we must look at the stock on the weekly chart in log scale. From this perspective, during the August large cap growth sell-off, the stock found support right near its last breakout zone and its long-term uptrend line. Those remain key levels to respect again
- [Late Summer Fireworks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/late-summer-fireworks/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has alternated gains and losses the last seven trading sessions after the eight-day winning streak ended on 8/19. This has helped produce the right shoulder of a potential inverse H&S pattern. 2- SMH Semis also has formed a potential inverse H&S pattern; we’re closely watching its 14-day RSI for
- [8/29/24 - 2 buys + NVDA](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-29-24-2-buys-nvda/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts ELV, TT Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support
- [August 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/august-2024/)
- [Engulfed](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/engulfed/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX logged its fourth bearish engulfing pattern of 2024 yesterday. Short-term weakness followed the prior two times. 2- Depending on how today unfolds, the VIX could log a +20% week; it’s currently +18% through the first four days. If so, it would be three +20% weeks in the last six. We haven’t’
- [The Next Trading Box](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-trading-box/) - Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Trading boxes -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -US Dollar -Dollar & SPX -XBI Intra-Day The SPX closed above its intra-day mid-point for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Wednesday.
- [After the Spike](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-spike/) - Key Points: 1- From the August 5th low through yesterday’s peak, the SPX gained approximately 9.9%. That’s the sharpest of any multi-week rally we’ve seen yet. 2- There’s been one key difference in the short-term work since April though – we’ve started to see oversold readings on the ensuing pullbacks. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day
- [The First Time Since June'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-time-since-june23/) - Key Point: For the first time since June’23, the SPX has logged FIVE 1% gains in a calendar month. See more below. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -8-day winning streaks -One percent gains -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -XBI Biotech
- [8/20/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-20-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts CTAS, SPOT Watching META, TT, DHR Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold
- [Seven Straight & Target Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/seven-straight-target-hit/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Seven-day winning streaks -Weekly SPX charts -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -GDX SPX Weekly Track Seven Straight The SPX’s seven-day winning streak is the longest since the seven
- [Week of 8/19/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-19-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Seven-day winning streaks -Big weekly gains -Weekly SPX charts -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth -Performance Key Charts -10-year yield -US Dollar -SMH -GDX -ARKK -XLF -XRT -EZA -Bitcoin SPX Weekly Track
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 8/16/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-8-16-24/) - Chart of the Week – FIS FIS was one of FOUR buy ideas that appeared across two Chart Trades pieces last week. We’ve also started to cite a watch list in every Chart Trades report. Last week, there were SIX additional names. Chart Trades has become one of our most popular notes and is available
- [Clusters of Big Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/clusters-of-big-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% gains in six days. We haven’t seen a cluster of 1% gains this close together since 10/30 through 11/2. 2- The SPX’s cumulative adv-dec line made a new all-time high yesterday. Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Clusters of big gains -6-day move -Breadth -Live patterns
- [8/16/24 - 1 buy](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-16-24-1-buy/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts UNH Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support Shorts
- [Another 5-Day Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-5-day-winning-streak/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged SEVEN winning streaks of at least five days since the October’23 lows. 2- Since the start of 2019, the SPX has had 24 prior streaks of at least five days (non-overlapping instances). The index was higher 10 days late 79% of the time, with an average
- [Strong 6-day Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-6-day-moves/) - Strong 6-day Moves Altogether, the SPX now is +4.8% over the last six days, which is the best six-day run since gaining +6% from 10/30 – 11/6. Yes, that was the start of the uptrend. Let’s not forget, though, that back then it seemed unlikely that the short-term pop could continue much longer: the
- [Strong 6-day Moves & CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-6-day-moves-cpi/) - Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Strong 6-day moves -SPX & CPI -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -MAGS/SPX -MAGS -HYG Intra-Day The two digestive days on Friday and Monday set the stage for yesterday, and the market responded strongly. The
- [8/14/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-14-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts CUBE, FIS, KDP Also watching EGO, NOW, ADP, HAS, CCEP Buy the dip in an
- [The Retracement](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-retracement/) - Topics Covered: Market -Intra-day -Steps for a new uptrend -Retracement -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -GLD -KRE -SMH -IGF Intra-day The SPX finished +0.00% yesterday and 0.06% below its intra-day mid-point… In an attempt to gauge market sentiment after
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 8/9/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-8-9-24/) - Chart of the Week – MSFT MSFT was one of FOUR buy ideas that appeared in Friday’s Chart Trades piece. The others were stocks nearing bullish pattern breakouts. Buy the Dip in an Uptrend Here are three charts of MSFT… MSFT has gotten hit especially hard the last few weeks and has bounced after briefly touching
- [8/8/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-8-24/) - Market -Steps for a new uptrend -Five straight 1% moves -The most important trend -Patterns Stats -Daily price action Key Charts -XLK -XLC -VIX
- [8/12/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-12-24/) - https://vimeo.com/manage/videos/997757590 Market -Weekly SPX charts -Drawdowns -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action Weekly Stats -Breadth Key Charts -10-year yield -VIX (2) -HACK -SMH
- [New Breakout Target](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-breakout-target/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s pullback from the channel’s upper threshold does not look too different than the prior drawdowns that also commenced from the upper line. 2- By closing slightly above 5,340 on Friday, the SPX triggered the small bullish inverse H&S pattern. The upside target is at 5,550. Topics Covered: -SPX 5-day
- [Week of 8/12/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-12-24/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s pullback from the channel’s upper threshold does not look too different than the prior drawdowns that also commenced from the upper line. 2- By closing slightly above 5,340 on Friday, the SPX triggered the small bullish inverse H&S pattern. The upside target is at 5,550. Topics Covered: -SPX 5-day
- [A Short-Term Bullish Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-short-term-bullish-pattern/) - Key Points: 1- The S&P 500 finished yesterday near the potential breakout zone of a key short-term bullish pattern. 2- SMH Semis logged its eighth straight move of at least 1% on Thursday. The next step is to puncture the downtrend line drawn from the July 11th high point. Topics Covered: Market -Uptrend steps update
- [8/9/24 - 4 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-9-24-4-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts META, RACE, SPG Buy the dip in an uptrend MSFT Severely oversold & near support
- [The Most Important Trend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-important-trend/) - Key Points: 1 -Overall, from 5/31–7/8, the SPX closed above its mid-point 19/25 days or 76% of the time. 2 -Conversely, from 7/9–8/7, the SPX has closed above its mid-point 5/22 days or 23% of the time. Topics Covered: Market -The most important trend -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price
- [Steps for a New Uptrend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/steps-for-a-new-uptrend/) - Key Points: 1- We review the seven steps needed for an uptrend to be re-established below. 2- The SPX now has logged FIVE STRAIGHT absolute 1% moves for the first time since 1/30-2/3/23. Topics Covered: Market -Steps for a new uptrend -Five straight 1% moves -Live patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action
- [8/6/24 - Oversold & Near Support](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/8-6-24-oversold-near-support/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold & near support SIX S&P 500 stocks
- [Missing Uptrend Traits](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/missing-uptrend-traits/) - Missing Uptrend Traits Bad closes have been the norm before and now, during, the summer correction of 2024. Yesterday was just the fifth time that the index has closed above its mid-point in the last fifteen trading days going back to 7/9/24 (33% of the time). We’ll recall that the day before, July 8th, was
- [Discovery](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/discovery/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has been missing five key components necessary for an uptrend since the second week of July. 2- The SPX’s current drawdown of -9.6% has retraced much more of the April-July rally vs. the last three drawdowns. Topics Covered: Market -Missing uptrend traits -Rallies & drawdowns -Bollinger Bands -Live patterns
- [Week of 8/5/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-8-5-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly SPX charts -Drawdown scenarios -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats -Breadth -Performance Key Charts -10-year yield -VIX (2) -US Dollar -IWM -KRE -SMH -XLK -XLU -XLU vs. TLT -Bitcoin SPX Weekly Track
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 8/2/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-8-2-24/) - Chart of the Week: 1% Gain => 1% Decline This chart appeared in Friday’s pre-market Opening Look piece, “Another First…” All in, the index lost 1.4% on Thursday, which came a day after the index rallied 1.6% (its biggest move since February 22nd). We have to go all the way back to August 23-24, 2023 for
- [Another First...](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-first-3/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX followed a 1% gain with a 1% loss yesterday for the first time since August 23-24, 2023. We compare the two periods below. 2- Clusters of 1% declines now have materialized for the first time since last April. The difference is some solid responses to large cap growth earnings
- [SPX & FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-fomc-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a Fed rate decision six straight times. 2-The SPX’s 14-day RSI went out at 44 last evening, which is the third time it’s been below 50 on Fed-day since last November. The other two times that the indicator was at least this
- [August’24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/august24/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -August Seasonality Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -KRE Regional Banks (2) -XBI Biotech -IWM Small Caps -DVY Dividends -XLRE Real Estate -IHE Pharmaceuticals -XLK Technology -Gold -Bitcoin SPX – Key July Stats +1.1% monthly gain -Up 14/22 trading days -Positive
- [Waiting](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/waiting-2/) - Key Points: 1- The last time the SPX had two straight trading box breakdowns was last August and September. 2- The SPX has traded below its 20-day moving average for four straight sessions, the second longest span since last October. In April, the SPX spent 17 days under the line before finally clearing it
- [7/30/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-30-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts PCG, CPB Buy the dip in an uptrend MU Severely oversold near support Earnings
- [July 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/july-2024/)
- [7/11/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-11-24/)
- [Big Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-week-3/) - Key Points: 1- On Friday, 87% S&P 500 stocks finished higher, which was the best breadth day since 7/16 (89%) and the second-best since 3/27 (90%). 2- IWM R2k & IWN Small Cap Value have extended their recent multi-year pattern breakouts. Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly SPX charts -Live patterns -Potential patterns -AVWAP
- [Week of 7/29/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-29-24/) - Key Points: 1- On Friday, 87% S&P 500 stocks finished higher, which was the best breadth day since 7/16 (89%) and the second-best since 3/27 (90%). 2- IWM R2k, IWN Small Cap Value and IWO Small Cap Growth all have broken out of multi-year bases. Topics Covered: Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly SPX
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 7/27/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-7-27-24/) - Chart of the Week – 2 % Declines As we know, the SPX logged a 2% decline on Wednesday for the first time since December 15, 2022. The year, alone, brings back a lot of bad memories to active and passive investors alike. Interestingly, that last -2% move in Dec’22 loss happened two months after the October’22 low
- [Reversals](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/reversals-3/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown stands at approximately 5% after yesterday. If the bleeding stopped now, this would be the smallest pullback of the biggest ones we’ve seen since December’22. 2- XBI Biotech’s comeback continues, and now it is close to triggering a two-year base. Topics Covered: Market -Reversals -1% moves -Bollinger Bands
- [Unwind](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/unwind/) - Key Points: 1- 2% declines don’t happen a lot, but they are not rare. Of the last 30 years, the SPX had zero 2% losses in just five years (16.7% of the time): 1995, 2004-06 and 2017. 2- XLK’s 4% sell-off easily triggered its bearish formation yesterday, which now targets the 205 zone. That
- [Sub-par Closes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/sub-par-closes/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday marked the SPX’s eighth close below its intra-day mid-point in the last 10 trading days, which is not a bullish sign. 2- The SPX now closed beneath the 10-DMA for four straight trading sessions, as well. We discuss the significance below. Topics Covered: Market -Sub-par closes -SPX vs. 10-DMA -Trendline
- [Clusters of 1% Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/clusters-of-1-moves/) - 1% Moves With the second 1% gain of July on Monday, the SPX has notched at least two 1% advances is 6/7 months in 2024. There was just one in June. For some context, we’ve only seen more than three one percent up-moves in a month once this year: in February, there were four.
- [No Summer Doldrums Yet](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-summer-doldrums-yet/) - Topics Covered: Market -1% moves -Clusters of big days -Live Patterns -Potential Patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -XLK -MSOS -PBJ Intra-Day The SPX utilized a late-morning bid on Monday to close on its highs and log its second 1% gain in
- [7/23/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-23-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts XOM, BLK Buy the dip in an uptrend LLY Severely oversold near support Earnings
- [The Response](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-response-2/) - Key Points: 1- Seasonality: On average, the DJIA has sold off soon after the month’s second half has started during an election year before regaining steam at the very end. 2- SMH Semis: Going back to the Great Financial Crisis, weekly declines of at least 8% have led to favorable buying opportunities the vast
- [Week of 7/22/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-22-24/) - Key Points: 1- Seasonality: On average, the DJIA has sold off soon after the month’s second half has started during an election year before regaining steam at the very end. 2- SMH Semis: Going back to the Great Financial Crisis, weekly declines of at least 8% have led to favorable buying opportunities the vast
- [Shakeup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/shakeup/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down two straight days. Since the April downturn, there only has been one losing streak longer than two days: three from 6/21 – 6/24. 2- Through Thursday’s close, the VIX is +28% this week. We look at the weekly gains of at least +20% since March’20. The
- [Monster Rotation Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/monster-rotation-continues/) - Key Points: 1- Rotation continued to be the dominant theme, and this has resulted in eight straight days of positive breadth for the S&P 500. 2-Further, the index also now has had positive internals for the TENTH STRAIGHT DAY when Tech has been the WORST sector. Topics Covered: Market -Rotation -Breadth when Tech lags
- [Historic Movement](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/historic-movement/) - Key Points: -Among other stats, here’s this: IWM’s 14-day RSI now is at 80. The indicator only has surpassed 80 three prior times since the internet bubble burst in 200: September’17, November’16 and June’03. Additional upside followed each time. Topics Covered: Small Caps -Historic stats -Daily patterns -Momentum -Long-term patterns -IWM/SPX SPX -Patterns -AVWAP
- [Opening Look & Chart Trades](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/opening-look-chart-trades/) - OPENING LOOK Comparing the Rallies From the April low to yesterday’s intra-day high, the SPX has gained +14.6% over 58 trading sessions. From the October’23 low to the March’24 high, the move totaled +28% over 99 trading days. The pace of both segments, thus, is just about even. Why do we care? Well, there
- [Comparing the Rallies](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/comparing-the-rallies/) - Key Points: 1- From the April low to yesterday’s intra-day high, the SPX has gained +14.6% over 58 trading sessions. From the October’23 low to the March’24 high, the move totaled +28% over 99 trading days. 2- From the October low, the SPX has completed trading 11 boxes. There have been 10 breakouts and
- [7/16/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-16-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts HIG, SNPS, WELL Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold near support
- [Breadth: New All-Time Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-new-all-time-highs/) - Key Points: 1- Six S&P 500 sectors gained at least 2% last week, which prompted the index’s advance-decline line to finish Friday at a new all-time high. 2- The 10-Year Yield fell for the second straight week, which pulled its 14-week RSI to the low 40s. Of note, the indicator hasn’t dropped below 40
- [Week of 7/15/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-15-24/) - Key Points: 1- Six S&P 500 sectors gained at least 2% last week, which prompted the index’s advance-decline line to finish Friday at a new all-time high. 2- The 10-Year Yield fell for the second straight week, which pulled its 14-week RSI to the low 40s. Of note, the indicator hasn’t dropped below 40
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 7/12/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-7-12-24/) - Chart of the Week – Real Rotation The rotation out of Tech and into everything else was widely discussed on Thursday: 80% of the SPX advanced as XLK fell 1.6%. Indeed, one day doesn’t make a trend. But it’s been this way since the April lows. In fact, the S&P 500 now has had positive breadth
- [Tech Lags, Everything Else Rallies](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/tech-lags-everything-else-rallies/) - Key Points: 1-The S&P 500 now has had positive breadth for eight straight sessions on days in which Technology was the worst-performing sector, including yesterday. 2- XLK has underperformed the SPX by at least 1.5% four times now in 2024 – three of them have happened since May 29th. Even more telling is the
- [Bullish Stats](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-stats/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 1% gain ended the 22-trading day drought without one. That was the longest span of no 1% advances since the October’23 lows. 2-This isn’t the first time that the SPX will be dealing with a CPI report while overbought. Since the start of 2023, it has happened seven prior times.
- [Six Straight Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/six-straight-gains/) - Six Straight Gains Officially, the SPX notched its sixth straight gain yesterday, which started on July 1st; this kept the month “perfect” for another day. Overall, since the October’23 low point, this now is the index’s sixth winning streak of at least five straight and fourth of at least six. However, as we
- [Six in a Row](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/six-in-a-row/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up six days in a row. Since the October’23 low point, this now is the index’s sixth winning streak of at least five straight and fourth of at least six. 2- The index remains above the uptrend line drawn from the April’24 low. The biggest drawdowns since
- [Eighth Pattern Target Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/eighth-pattern-target-hit/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hit its eighth bullish pattern last week at 5,555. We’re left with one live bullish pattern now, target 6,100.d 2- The MAG 7 ETF’s 4-day advance of +8.3% is the best in its young history (April’23). Its relative line vs. the SPX has gone parabolic as a result. Topics
- [Week of 7/8/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-7-8-24/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hit its eighth bullish pattern last week at 5,555. We’re left with one live bullish pattern now, target 6,100. 2- The MAG 7 ETF’s 4-day advance of +8.3% is the best in its young history (April’23). Its relative line vs. the SPX has gone parabolic as a result. Topics
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 7/5/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-7-5-24/) - Chart of the Week – The Strongest Stocks Buying only the biggest stocks may not sound appealing to some investors. But what about buying the ones that have been going up? In other words, we should always be searching for relative strength, and right now the ones showing the best relative strength simply are the largest stocks.
- [On Watch](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/on-watch/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s MACD indicator recently triggered its 12th sell signal since April’23: nine of the last eleven FAILED. 2- The big concern regarding Bitcoin’s decline is if it ends up leading the SPX lower, like we saw this past spring. Bitcoin topped in mid-March; the SPX topped two weeks later. Topics
- [The Strongest Stocks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-strongest-stocks/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX finished about 80 bps shy of achieving the latest bullish pennant objective of 5,555, hitting a high of 5,509 yesterday. 2- Just 17 S&P 500 stocks made new highs yesterday, a number which has been diverging vs. the SPX since late March. We take a deep dive into what
- [The Real Trend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-real-trend-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s last 1% advance occurred on 6/5, which was 17 days ago. This now is the longest streak without a 1% advance since 19 from 11/15 – 12/12/23. 2- Technology has been the S&P 500’s leader sector in 17 days since 4/1/24. 3-The S&P 500 has had positive breadth
- [7/2/24 - 2 buys, 1 Short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/7-2-24-2-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue or green 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts VZ Buy the dip in an uptrend QCOM Severely oversold near support Shorts
- [July'24 & Q3](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/july24-q3/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -July Seasonality -After a Strong 1st Half Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -IGV Software -TAN Solar -NDX -XLK -SMH Semis -XLE Energy -AMLP MLPs -Crude Oil -XHB Homebuilders -EWU United Kingdom -TLT -Bitcoin SPX – Key June Stats +3.5% monthly gain
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 6/28/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-6-28-24/) - Chart of the Week – 1% Moves So far in June, the SPX has logged just a single 1% advance (6/5) and zero 1% declines. In fact, this could be the second straight month without a 1% down move. The last 1% loss happened on 4/30, which was the fourth 1% decline of April. Of
- [Almost Halftime](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/almost-halftime/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is set to log its seventh monthly gain in the last eight as June concludes. It also would be the third straight quarterly advance and the sixth in the last seven. In the late 90s, the SPX had 14 straight quarterly gains. 2- We review four key factors that
- [June'24 vs. July'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/june24-vs-july23/) - Key Points: 1- So far in June, the SPX has logged just a single 1% advance (6/5) and zero 1% declines. In fact, this could be the second straight month without a 1% down move. 2- Overall, through nearly six months of trading in 2024, the SPX has logged fifteen 1% moves and seven
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-8/) - Key Points: 1- We’ve seen the same kind of mini pattern play out throughout June for the SPX: A big one-day move, a pause, and another large move. 2- XLC Comm Services extended the breakout from early June yesterday, which has a pattern target up near 93. 3– OEF SPX 100 is the
- [Rotation Revisited](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rotation-revisited/) - Key Points: 1- As late as 3:00 on Monday, 80% of the SPX’s stocks were up. The late selloff knocked that number down to 71%, but that still was tied for the second-best showing of June. 2- The XLK/SPX relative ratio’s -2.3% relative loss was the biggest discrepancy between the XLK and SPX since
- [6/25/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-25-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts DPZ, MRK, GS Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish
- [Top of the Channels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/top-of-the-channels/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 8/9 weeks and is testing the upper lines of TWO upward sloping channels. 2- By having positive breadth all four days last week, the SPX had its best weekly breadth ratio (74% advancing stocks) since the week ending 5/10 (83%). Topics Covered: -SPX 4-day
- [Week of 6/24/24 - Top of the Channels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-24-24-top-of-the-channels/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 8/9 weeks and is testing the upper lines of TWO upward sloping channels. 2- By having positive breadth all four days last week, the SPX had its best weekly breadth ratio (74% advancing stocks) since the week ending 5/10 (83%). 3- Bitcoin now is
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 6/21/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-6-21-24/) - Chart of the Week – Seventh SPX Upside Target Hit With all the talk centered on the (formerly) biggest stock rolling over on Thursday, we may have missed the most important news headline. No, it wasn’t that the SPX eclipsed 5,500 for the first time. It was that the index hit another bullish pattern target
- [Seventh SPX Upside Target Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/seventh-spx-upside-target-hit/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hit our latest target of 5,495 yesterday, making it the seventh successful bullish pattern since the October lows. 2- Short-term, the SPX’s 6.2% swing gain since the May low is among the best we’ve seen since last October. And from this angle, it appears ready to pause again. Topics Covered:
- [6/21/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-21-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts AMZN, NEM, SPGI Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish
- [XLC vs. XLK](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/xlc-vs-xlk/) - Topics Covered: Market -Patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -XLC vs. XLK – various charts Intra Day The SPX squeaked out another small gain on Tuesday, and now is up six of seven days and 10/13. It’s now closed above its intra-day
- [Breadth Divergences Grow](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-divergences-grow-2/) - Breadth Divergences Grow As we know, the biggest growth names have separated themselves from the smaller ones even more of late. All of this has helped the NASDAQ Composite extend its latest breakout to new highs. We’ve cautioned about paying too much attention to the NASDAQ Adv-Dec line given its propensity to trend lower
- [This Hasn't Happened since September 2020](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/this-hasnt-happened-since-september-2020/) - Key Points: 1- The XLK Tech ETF ended yesterday with a 14-day RSI reading of 80, the highest since 9/1/20. See more below. 2- The XLK/SPX ratio, thus, got even more extended, too. 3- There have been a lot more S&P 500 stocks making new all-time and 52-week highs vs lows. But there
- [6/18/24 - 2 buys, 1 short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-18-24-2-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts TT Buy the dip in an uptrend VLO Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish Pattern
- [Breadth Divergences Grow](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth-divergences-grow/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels. 2- The NASDAQ adv-dec line has dropped back to its April lows as the NASDAQ Composite continues to make new highs. 3- The S&P 100 index’s adv-dec line is diverging from the index for
- [Week of 6/17/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-17-24/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is getting close to testing the upper lines of two weekly trading channels. 2- The NASDAQ adv-dec line has dropped back to its April lows as the NASDAQ Composite continues to make new highs. 3- The S&P 100 index’s adv-dec line is diverging from the index for
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 6/14/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-6-14-24/) - Chart of the Week – AAPL As we know, AAPL blasted back to new highs with one of its biggest two-day gains in history this past week. In fact, the +10.3% two-day advance was the biggest since November’22 and the sixth two-day gain of at least 10% since the start of 2009. However, exceedingly
- [Fear of New Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fear-of-new-highs/) - Key Points: 1- The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index hit the Fear Zone yesterday as the SPX made a new all-time closing high. 2- For the third time since the October’23 lows, the XLK/SPX ratio is overbought. Topics Covered: Market -Fear & Greed -XLK vs. SPX -Patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily
- [SPX: Three Live Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-three-live-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- With Wednesday’s opening gap and hold, the latest pattern breakout was confirmed. The upside target from this formation counts to 5,555. 2- That gives us three live bullish patterns. We last had three at the same time in mid-May. 3- The S&P 500’s Market Strength Indicator is now extreme. The
- [Double Jeopardy](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/double-jeopardy/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX sits at a new-all time high with a 14-day RSI of 67 ahead of today’s trading session. 2- Today marks the FOMC’s sixth interest rate decision since the October’23 market low. The SPX has been higher two weeks later five straight times. 3- The SPX has traded lower
- [A Recent Trade Idea](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-recent-trade-idea/) - ENPH is a risky and longer-term play. It’s had an extremely volatile downfall and subsequent comeback since its November’23 lows. It also spiked over 6% yesterday. Bigger picture, this is the first time that the stock is trading above its 20, 50 and 200-day moving averages since its top in early 2022. Each moving average now
- [Waiting](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/waiting/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s short-term price action continues to follow the blueprint we’ve seen since the October lows. 2- We’re tracking two new potential patterns for the SPX – one bullish and one bearish. 3- The German DAX currently is logging its third straight decline, hitting its lowest level since early May
- [6/11/24 - 3 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-11-24-3-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts GOOGL, ENPH Buy the dip in an uptrend FDX Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish
- [New Highs vs. Divergences](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-highs-vs-divergences/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest one being the 13-week line. 2- Even though Tech led last week, a different sector led each day. 3- XLV Healthcare was the second-best Sector last week after Technology. It’s back above
- [Week of 6/10/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-6-10-24/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has spent five weeks above each of the key weekly moving averages – the shortest one being the 13-week line. 2- Even though Tech led last week, a different sector led each day. 3- XLV Healthcare was the second-best Sector last week after Technology. It’s back above
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 6/7/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-6-7-24/) - Chart of the Week – The SPX’s Latest Bullish Pattern The S&P 500 continues to extend from its most recent bullish pattern breakout, which happened on 5/14/24 with a push through 5,225. The upside target is just shy of 5,500. Prior to this one, the index has hit SIX upside pattern objectives since the October’23
- [6/7/24 - 2 buys, 1 short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-7-24-2-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts EBAY Buy the dip in an uptrend NUE Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish Pattern
- [June'24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/june24/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key monthly stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -June Seasonality Monthly Breadth & Performance Key Monthly Charts -Ethereum -IWM R2k -XLE Energy -XLU Utilities -XOP Oil/Gas Expl -XME Metals -SMH Semis -ARKK -TAN Solar -PJP Drugs -Gold -GREK Greece SPX – Key Monthly Stats +4.8% monthly gain -Up 14/22 trading
- [May 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/may-2024/)
- [6/4/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/6-4-24-3-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts BRK.B, PFE Buy the dip in an uptrend UBER Severely oversold near support Shorts Bearish
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-7/) - Topics Covered: Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-Year Yield -US Dollar -ESPO -ARKK -SIL -UNG -XLU Daily Price Action The SPX’s tiny 2 bps loss yesterday officially ended its winning streak. Of greater concern, we’ve had negative breadth now in three of the last
- [Week of 5/28/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-of-5-28-24/) - Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second five-week run of the year. In both 2021 and 2023, the index had five-week streaks just once both those years. 2- Despite the flat week, breadth was poor. The SPX had negative internals for four straight sessions before
- [Winning Streaks, 1% Gains & Tech](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/winning-streaks-1-gains-tech/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days, which is the NINTH winning streak of at least four days since the October’23 low. 2- With the index also registering a 1% move yesterday, from the start of May through yesterday, the index now has logged four 1% gains and zero 1%
- [SPX Holding while Others Move](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-holding-while-others-move/) - Key Points: 1- So far, things have played out in the short-term work as we’d expect after the last snapback. See more below. 2- The SPX’s last 1% loss happened on 4/30, which now is among the longest droughts without one since the October’23 lows. 3 – The German DAX has been rallying
- [Losing Streaks & Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/losing-streaks-drawdowns/) - Short Losing Streaks The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days in a while. Specifically, the last time this happened was the six-day downturn from 4/12 – 4/19/24. And 4/19, of course, marked the end of the ultimate 6% spring pullback. This span of no 3-day losing streaks now is among
- [Short Losing Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/short-losing-streaks/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hasn’t had a losing streak longer than two days since the six-day downturn from 4/12 – 4/19/24. 2- When successive down days remain contained, up-trending price action results. 3 – Yesterday’s late-day comeback helped the SPX’s most recent bullish pattern remain alive. The index starts today 1.1% above
- [January 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january-2024/)
- [March 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march-2024/)
- [April 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/april-2024/)
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/31/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-5-31-24/) - Chart of the Week The following commentary appeared in Wednesday morning’s Opening Look piece. The chart is updated through Friday, 3:15 EDT. MAGS Magnificent Seven ETF The MAGS ETF made a new all-time high yesterday – both in absolute and relative terms vs. the SPX. The ETF only is 14 months old, but considering its components, the
- [Spotted ➡ Rotation](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spotted-➡-rotation/) - Key Points: 1- Before yesterday, the last time the XLK lost 2% was on 4/30/24. The SPX had 11% advancing stocks that session. XLK was down again 2.3% yesterday. More than 72% of the SPX advanced. 2- With one day to go, we’ve yet to see a 1% decline this month; the last one
- [The Last Three Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-last-three-days/) - Key Points: 1- There only have been three trading days since last Thursday’s bearish engulfing pattern, but all of them have taken place inside the SPX’s big red candle from that day. 2- The SPX remains inside the latest trading box, as well. What we haven’t had a lot of the last two years
- [The Market's Foundation](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-markets-foundation/) - Key Points: 1- S&P 500 breadth has been sub-par recently, with negative internals now in 5/6, 6/8 and 7/11 trading sessions. Of the last 11, Tech or Comm Services have been the leading sectors seven times. 2- The recent weakening internals has pushed the SPX’s cumulative advance-decline line back below the March peak. The
- [5/21/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-21-24/) - Topics Covered: Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -Bitcoin (3) -Ethereum (2) -URA Uranium(3) -XBI Biotech (2) -KIE Insurance -XLF(2) -RSP Equal Wgt SPX -NDXE Equal Wgt NDX -QQQJ Next 100 -Crude Oil (2)
- [5/28/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-28-24/) - Market -SPX 5-day path -Weekly charts -MACD -% stocks > MAs -RSP Equal Weight -Patterns -AVWAP Daily Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Weekly Stats Breadth Performance Key Charts -US Dollar -10-year yield -DJIA
- [Four SPX Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four-spx-charts/) - SPX Weekly Track If it felt like a back-and-forth week with ultimately no net movement in front of a long holiday weekend… that’s exactly what it was, with the SPX moving +0.2% week over week. SPX Weekly That said, by bouncing back from Thursday’s 1.6% intra-day negative reversal, the latest five-week trading channel held.
- [Five Week Win Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/five-week-win-streaks/) - Key Points: 1- Friday’s snapback helped the SPX secure its fifth consecutive weekly advance, its second five-week run of the year. In both 2021 and 2023, the index had five-week streaks just once both those years. 2- Despite the flat week, breadth was poor. The SPX had negative internals for four straight sessions before
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/24/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-5-24-24/) - Chart of the Week – Bearish Engulfing Patterns The SPX logged a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday after making a new all-time high. We’ve seen this before. Big bearish engulfing patterns appearing at, or around, new highs happened three prior times since last summer. The SPX currently is trading at higher prices compared
- [After the Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-reversal-2/) - Key Points: 1- Given that the prior few days of price action all were tiny in comparison, the SPX’s reversal yesterday materially sticks out. 2- We compare yesterday’s bearish engulfing pattern to the last three that happened at key highs below. 3- The last time the SPX went an entire calendar month without
- [5/24/24 - 3 Buys, 2 Shorts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-24-24-3-buys-2-shorts/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts HUBB, ISRG Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold near support AZO Shorts Bearish
- [Now vs. Nov'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-nov23/) - Key Points: 1- There are similarities between the current comeback and November’23. See below. 2- A potential bullish flag has taken shape over the last week in the SPX. 3- SMH Semis is trading above its bullish pattern’s breakout zone. The measured move targets 270. Topics Covered: Market -Market Strength Indicator -Breadth -New
- [Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/digestion/) - Key Points: 1- In the 11 trading sessions since big 3-day advance from 5/2-5/6/24, the SPX has logged absolute moves of 30 bps or less eight times – including the last four. 2- Each of the SPX’s prior strong short-term pops led to overbought readings on the two-hour chart… including this last bounce. And
- [Higher Highs & Higher Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/higher-highs-higher-lows/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has a four-week gain of 6.77%. Since June’2020, it’s the 13th four-week gain of at least 6% (not counting overlapping instances). 2- IWM R2k was up 1.85% last week. It’s close to its 2024 and 2022 highs near 212. If it can overtake that area, it would complete a huge
- [Five Crypto Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/five-crypto-charts/) - Ethereum Let’s start with Ethereum’s massive 20% spike. As we know, speculation that an ETF is getting closer to reality is being cited as the driving force behind yesterday’s move. Bigger picture, that helped the huge bullish pattern we’ve been talking about mature. Most importantly, the current back and forth movement (right shoulder) is similar
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-6/) - Key Points: 1- Ethereum and Bitcoin’s huge moves have brought them closer to major pattern breakout attempts. 2- XBI Biotech now has two live bullish patterns in play on its daily and weekly charts. 3- The QQQJ Next Gen 100 ETF remains way below its all-time highs, but it recently retriggered two bullish
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/17/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-5-17-24/) - Chart of the Week – Successful Bullish Patterns The S&P 500 hit its sixth bullish pattern target since the October lows this past week. Over that same time frame, zero bearish patterns have proven successful. If momentum is going to eventually shift to downside, this will need to change. Interviews, articles and social
- [CPI & Indicator Check Up](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cpi-indicator-check-up/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading of 64. The last seven times the SPX rallied two weeks after the CPI data release, the RSI was in the mid-60s or higher. 2- One of the potential bullish patterns we’ve been tracking was triggered yesterday. The upside target
- [SPX, ARKK & NASDAQ Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-arkk-nasdaq-breadth/) - SPX Still Calm The SPX is coming off its best three-day and three-week advance of 2024, both of which have come right after the April 19th low point. As noted yesterday, this kind of about-face happened soon after key lows in March and October of last year, too. The ensuing advances lasted for multiple months,
- [SPX Still Calm](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-still-calm/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged it second negligible loss in the last four trading days. If bullish pattern breakouts are going to start working again, we’ll see fewer whipsaws, i.e., the big daily moves will return to being infrequent. 2- So far, the major indices have remained calm despite meme stocks spiking again.
- [Best Three Weeks of 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/best-three-weeks-of-2024-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and the third best three-week period since November’22, as well. 2- We look at all three-week 5% moves since 2005 below. 3- XLF Financials is close to a multi-year pattern breakout. EUFN
- [Best Three Weeks of 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/best-three-weeks-of-2024/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +5.1% over the last three weeks. It’s the best three week run of 2024 and the third best three-week period since November’22, as well. 2- We look at all three-week 5% moves since 2005 below. 3- XLF Financials is close to a multi-year pattern breakout. EUFN
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap – 5/10/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-5-10-24/) - Chart of the Week – Good Closes 🟢The SPX just closed above its intra-day mid-point for the 10th in the last 13 trading sessions (a 77%-win rate). 🔴 Even more striking, this has happened right after the worst span of intra-day action over the last six months: From 3/4/24 through 4/19/23, the SPX
- [Key Spot, Key Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-spot-key-week-2/) - SPX The SPX capped off last week’s comeback with its second 1% gain of the week. Overall, we’ve seen at least two 1% gains during a calendar week happen three separate times since the October 27th low point. That includes the THREE in four days to kick things off between 10/30 and 11/2. As is
- [Chart of the Week & Content Wrap - 5/3/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-of-the-week-content-wrap-5-3/) - Chart of the Week – Trading Boxes Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range leads to one of two things – a continuation or a reversal of the current trend. This is very easy to see from the action going back to the March’23 low point. Over that time, we’ve seen
- [Another Potential Bullish Pattern](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-potential-bullish-pattern/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is close to triggering another bullish pattern. There are currently two live bullish patterns and two potential formations. See more below. 2- The latest trading box has been resolved to the upside. 3- The DJIA is up seven straight days. This isn’t bearish. Topics Covered: Market -Pattern deep
- [Good Closes are Back](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/good-closes-are-back/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day mid-point 10/13 trading sessions (77% of the time). This is the same win-rate it had from the October lows through March 1st. 2- The SPX has continued to respect its long-term weekly moving averages. See more below. 3- XLU Utilities is up 14/16
- [5/9/24 - Eight Bullish Bank Charts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-9-24-eight-bullish-bank-charts/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts C, BAC, JPM, HBAN, ZION, TFC, PNC, FITB Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-5/) - Topics Covered: Key Charts -MAGS vs. SPX -KRE Regional banks -XLE Energy -XLU Utilities -XLY Cons Discretionary -EWJ Japan -German Dax -EWP Spain -EWU UK (2) -LIT -Bitcoin (2) Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs MAGS Magnificent 7 With mega cap growth stocks coming back strongly over the
- [Best 3-Day Run… of 2024](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/best-3-day-run-of-2024/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its second straight 1% gain yesterday – for the third time since the October lows. Each occurrence shares one important characteristic. 2- The SPX is up 3.2% over the last three days – its biggest three-day move of 2024. We break down what this means below. 3-
- [Three Important Next Steps](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-important-next-steps/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its first 1% gain of May on Friday, which makes it four +/-1% moves in the last nine days – a very high percentage of big moves in a short amount of time. 2- The SPX needs to accomplish three important steps to fully return to its uptrending
- [Week Ending 5/3/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-5-3-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: XBI, SOCL –Worst 20 ETFs: XOP, PALL –Major Indices: IWM, IWC –Sectors: XLRE, XLE –Style: IWN, IWO –Industries: IGF, XHB –Foreign Markets: TUR, EEM –10-Year Yield, USD & SPX –Commodities: Crude Oil –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX A few bullet points after last week: -It
- [Choose Your Bias](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/choose-your-bias/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX continues to trace out potential bullish and bearish patterns. See a lot more on this below. 2- The % of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 20- and 50-day moving averages have bounced back. We look at how this compares to the autumn’s rally attempts. 3- The number
- [April'24 Performance & May Outlook](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/april24-performance-may-outlook/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Key Monthly Stats -Patterns -Monthly chart -After five straight up months end -May Seasonality Key Charts -Monthly Breadth: SPX -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, TUR -Worst 20 ETFs: Ethereum, ARKK -Major Indices: OEF, IWC -Sectors: XLU, XLK -Style: DVY, IWO -Industries: GDX, SMH -Foreign Markets: FXI, EPHE -Fixed Income: 10-Yr Yield -Commodities: Gold, Crude
- [The Pattern Battle Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-pattern-battle-continues/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX had seven +/-1% moves in April, the most since October. From January 2022 through March 2023, the SPX went 15 straight months with at least NINE +/-1% moves. 2- A potential bearish flag pattern has developed for the SPX. See more below. 3- XLU Utilities and TLT Bonds
- [Trading Boxes, Rallies and Failed Tops](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trading-boxes-rallies-and-failed-tops/) - Key Points: 1- Why do we track trading boxes so closely? Each trading range leads to one of two things – a continuation or a reversal of the current trend. 2- A key characteristic of the SPX’s uptrend since the October’22 low that many don’t talk about is that big bearish patterns have appeared
- [5/3/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-3-24/) - Market -Trading boxes -Rallies vs. drawdowns -10-DMA -Failed tops -Live Patterns -Potential Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-Year Yield -IWM -XLK -EEM
- [4/29/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-29-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -One Percent Gains -Market Strength Indicator -Bollinger Bands -MACD -Live Patterns -New bullish pattern -Potential Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -Nikkei 225 -10-Year Yield -FXI China -XBI
- [Key Spot, Key Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-spot-key-week/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% gains last week. There were at least two 1% gains during a calendar week two prior times since the October 27th low point (Nov’23 and Feb’24). The index was up the next week both times. 2- The small bullish pattern we talked about on Friday has
- [Week Ending 4/26/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-4-26-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, KWEB –Worst 20 ETFs: VIX –Major Indices: NDX –Sectors: XLY, XLV –Style: IWF, RSP –Industries: SOCL, IYM –Foreign Markets: EWU, EIDO –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Uranium, Gold –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX A few bullet points after last week: -Best weekly
- [Another Good Close](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-good-close-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its mid-point four straight days. This has been an about-face from what we saw from March through last week. See more below. 2- The SPX’s bearish pattern will be tested this morning, as another potential bullish pattern now is clear. 3- The SPX has closed
- [4/22/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-22-24/) - Market -Bearish streaks -The field holds -RSP vs. SPX -NDX -6-day losing streaks -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -Nikkei 225 -IPO -XLC
- [4/26/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-26-24/) - Market -Good closes -Live Patterns -Potential Patterns -SPX vs. 10-day moving average -New highs vs. lows -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -XLC -XLK -SIL (2) -USO
- [Pattern Battle](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pattern-battle-2/) - Key Points: 1- The Nikkei 225 fell 1% last evening, thus, it failed to recapture its pattern breakdown zone. Given the similarities between this and the SPX, it’s an important index to keep watching. 2- XLP Consumer Staples is one of five sector ETFs +2% in the first three days this week. However, it’s
- [4/25/24 - 2 buys, 1 short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-25-24-2-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts HRL, MTB Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
- [Now vs. August'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-august23-2/) - Key Points: 1- SPX had just a single 1% advance in 28 trading sessions before yesterday. We don’t need a lot of 1% gains for the market to remain healthy, however, we do need more 1% advances vs. losses. The 1% count so far in April is 3 losses, 2 gains. 2- Below we
- [Judging the Bounce](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/judging-the-bounce/) - Key Points: 1- If we get some upside follow through, a MACD buy signal could be triggered soon. We last had one near the October’23 lows. 2- The SPX still hasn’t officially hit the bearish downside target (4,944), though it got very close last Friday. Regardless, continuing to NOT hit a bearish objective would
- [The Field Holds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-field-holds/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today with two key streaks: It has logged six straight down days but has had two straight days of positive breadth. 2- With many areas doing better than large cap tech Friday (and last week overall), the RSP/SPX ratio has bounced. We’ve seen this before. Read more
- [Week Ending 4/19/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-4-19-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: JETS, KRE –Worst 20 ETFs: SMH, PBW –Major Indices: NDX –Sectors: XLU, XLK –Style: AMLP, FFTY –Industries: IGF, ARKK –Foreign Markets: EWI, VNM –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Silver, Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX A few bullet points after last week:
- [New 52-Week Highs & Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-52-week-highs-lows/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s number of new highs has been shrinking, and the number of new lows has been growing. See the discussion below. 2– Short-term, two breadth charts suggest a market bounce is due. 3– XBI Biotech is approaching a very important spot on its chart – the low 80s. Read
- [Bearish Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bearish-streaks/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has EIGHT different streaks in play after yesterday, and they are all bearish. See more below. 2– The CNN Fear & Greed Index has dropped to the Fear Zone the last three days. It last was at Extreme Greed on March 4th; it last was in the Greed zone
- [4/17/24 - 3 buys, 2 shorts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-17-24-3-buys-2-shorts/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts SCHW, VLGO Buy the dip in an uptrend HD Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
- [The Next Bounce](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-bounce-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a three-day losing streak. The only streak longer than three since the October lows was four in a row from 12/29/23 through 1/4/24. 2– The %B Indicator just hit its lowest mark since November’21. See the detailed discussion below. 3– The KIE Insurance ETF is sporting
- [Another First](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-first-2/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX followed Friday’s 1.5% decline with a 1.2% loss on Monday – the first back-to-back 1% down moves since 10/25-10/26/23. More below. 2– The index’s bearish pattern was triggered yesterday. The downside target is 4,944. 3– The SPX now has had four straight negative breadth sessions. It hasn’t had more
- [A Few Changes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-few-changes/) - Key Points: 1- From the point at which the SPX punctured its five-month uptrend line, it is down -2.1%. As discussed last week, the last three trendline breaks led to additional selling, but only after a failed bounce post breaking the line. 2– At Friday’s low point, the SPX undercut its lower Bollinger
- [Week Ending 4/12/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-4-12-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: PALL, SIL –Worst 20 ETFs: PBW, EWG –Major Indices: NDX, IWM –Sectors: XLK, XLF –Style: IWF, IWO –Industries: SMH, OIH –Foreign Markets: TUR, EWY –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX A few bullet points after last week:
- [4/8/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/4-8-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -Trendline break -Daily RSI -1% Moves -Drawdowns -Short-term RSI -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -10-Year Yield -US Dollar -SLV Silver -MSOS -Bitcoin -XLE Energy
- [4/11/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/04-11-2024/) - Topics Covered: Market -Drawdowns -Short-term -New highs vs. new lows -% S&P 500 stocks > moving avgs -Potential bearish pattern -AVWAP Stats -Daily price action -Index breadth -Sector performance -Best & worst ETFs Key Charts -RSP -US Dollar (2) -VIX -Bitcoin
- [Uptrend Lines vs. Uptrends](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/uptrend-lines-vs-uptrends/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX breached its uptrend line from the October low last week, but it remains in a long-term uptrend. See more below. 2– The SPX’s Market Strength Indicator has normalized after the index hit its last bullish pattern target of 5,260 a few weeks ago. This is considered digestive action until
- [Drawdowns, New High/Lows and Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/drawdowns-new-high-lows-and-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current drawdown is -2.5%. That’s among the largest multi-day pullbacks since the October lows… but it’s still very small by historical standards. 2– For the first time since November 1st, there were more new 52-week lows vs. highs within the S&P 500 yesterday. That’s not the full story…
- [CPI, SPX and Rates](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cpi-spx-and-rates/) - Key Points: 1- Since the October’23 low, we’ve had five CPI reports. The SPX has been higher two weeks later all five times. 2– The SPX ended Tuesday still within the latest trading box, but we’re always on guard for a potential reversal, like we saw at the summer’23 highs. Topics Covered: Market
- [Three Important Indicators](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-important-indicators/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX still below the key uptrend line, there is a risk of it following through to the downside – like it did three prior times since the Oct’22 low. 2– The question is how can the SPX avoid the same fate this time? We discuss three key technical indicators
- [What REALLY Changed?](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-really-changed/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX followed last Thursday’s 1% loss with a 1% gain – this has happened five straight times since the October low. 2– So far, the SPX’s peak-to-trough pullback stands at -2.4%, which is no different than the others up to this point. 3-Bitcoin’s potential cup/handle breakout targets 82,800. Topics
- [March / Q1 Performance & April / Q2 Outlook](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march-q1-performance-april-q2-outlook/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Five straight up months -Patterns – March -Patterns – April -April & Q2 Seasonality -New all-time highs Key Charts -Monthly Breadth: SPX -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, GDX -Worst 20 ETFs: UNG, WEAT -Major Indices: MDY, IWM -Sectors: XLE, XLY -Style: IWS, VTI -Industries: OIH, ARKK -Foreign Markets: EWP, EWH
- [Two More Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-more-days/) - Key Points: 1- SPY ended yesterday below the VWAP line anchored to last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting for the second straight session. The line continues to act as short-term resistance. 2– The SPX logged its third straight day of negative internals on Tuesday. Other than this period, it’s only had ONE longer streak the entire
- [The Most Bullish Trait](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-bullish-trait/) - Key Points: 1- So far, the SPX has logged just three 1% moves in March (2 up and 1 down). This has continued a trend that started in April’23. See more below. 2– While rotation in leadership has helped the market extend higher, it has been just as important to see a rotation among
- [3/25/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3/) - Topics discussed: Market -Weekly breadth -NDX weekly -SPX Cumulative adv-dec line -% SPX stocks > 200-DMAs -NASDAQ adv-dec line -NDX, NDXE and NDX adv-dec line -SPX short-term, trading boxes -Patterns -AVWAP Key Charts -Nikkei 225 -US Dollar -Crude Oil -Bitcoin
- [Stock Market Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/stock-market-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- 77% of the S&P 500’s stocks advanced last week, which was the best weekly breadth reading since the week ending 2/23/24 (78%). 2– The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 200-day moving averages hit 82% last week. This is the highest % we’ve seen since the comeback. We
- [Week Ending 3/22/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-22-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, XHB –Worst 20 ETFs: PALL, EWL –Major Indices: NDX (2) –Sectors: XLC, XLE –Style: DVY, IWN –Industries: SOCL, XBI –Foreign Markets: TUR, FXI –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: URA, WEAT –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX gained 2.3% last week, which
- [100 Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/100/) - Key Points: 1- Today marks trading day number 100 since the 10/27/23 market low. The SPX hit a low of 4,103.78 back then. Its intra-day high yesterday was 5,261.10. That’s a 28.2% gain. 2– Measured a bit differently, the SPX is +25% over five months, which has happened a handful of times in its
- [3/21/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-21-24/) - Topics Discussed: Market -FOMC & SPX -The latest breakout -Failed tops -Trading box b/o -Bollinger Bands -RSI -AVWAP Key Charts -GDX -SIL -ETHE -XLF -XLY
- [The Latest Breakout](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-latest-breakout/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX broke out of its sixth bullish formation since the lows yesterday. It’s nearly at the 5,260-target already. 2– The SPX also closed above its upper Bollinger band on Wednesday, which last happened after the December 13th 1.2% gain on an FOMC Day. 3– XLF Financials now is back
- [3/21/24 - 10 Bullish Chart Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-21-24-10-bullish-chart-patterns/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts CTVA, LYB, HES, CFG, WTW, KEY, ADSK, META, DIS, CTAS Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely
- [SPX & FOMC](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-fomc/) - Key Points: 1- We dissect the two-week periods following FOMC meetings since the October’23 low below. 2– The SPX’s short-term potential bullish pattern has matched our blueprint up to this point, with the formation just about complete now. It’s all about where it closes today. 3– With XLE Energy already having achieved its
- [Trading Ranges & Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trading-ranges-momentum/) - Key Points: 1- Eight trading boxes have been resolved higher eight times since the October low. The SPX has been trading within box number nine for the last four weeks. 2– Last summer, we got an indication of momentum shifting when the trading box encompassing the last two weeks of July and the first
- [3/18/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/3-158-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -2-week losing streaks -Drawdowns -Failed tops -Key uptrend line -Bollinger Bands (2) -MACD -Patterns -AVWAP Key Charts -Nikkei 225 -GLD -MSOS -SMH -Bitcoin
- [Still Searching for Downside Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/still-searching-for-downside-follow-through/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown since the October lows remains at -2.6%, with the last one coming in at -1.9%. 2– GLD Gold has formed a potential bullish pennant formation. 3– While Bitcoin remains below its most recent high, so far it has respected its 20-day moving average. Topics Covered:
- [Week Ending 3/15/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-15-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Weekly losing streaks –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, IGE –Worst 20 ETFs: PBW, IHI –Major Indices: OEF, IWM –Sectors: XLE, XLRE –Style: AMLP, SPHB –Industries: IYM, XBI –Foreign Markets: EPU, EWK –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX By falling 4/5 days
- [Testing the Line](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/testing-the-line/) - Key Points: 1- The major difference between Thursday’s 30 bps decline and Wednesday’s 20 bps dip was breadth. With just 21% stocks up yesterday, it was the worst reading since 2/5. 2– The SPX bounced at its uptrend line from the October lows again yesterday for the second time in four trading sessions. This
- [The Best Three Week Run](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-best-three-week-run/) - Key Points: 1- The S&P 500 has had positive market internals 70% of the time since the October 27 low (65/93 trading days). 2– Recently, the index had positive breadth in 14/16 trading sessions since 2/21 (88% win-rate) – the best three-week run since the start of the uptrend. 3– The weekly RSP/SPX
- [Strong Response](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-response/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has registered three absolute 1% moves (2 up, 1 down) in March at nearly the half-way mark. This is in line with what we’ve seen over the last five months. 2– We look at the SPX’s next potential short-term bullish pattern scenario below. 3– The XLK Technology
- [A Winning Streak No One is Talking About](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-winning-streak-no-one-is-talking-about/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after the CPI report for four straight months before today’s report. 2– SMH Semis dropped 1.8% on Monday, which took its two-day decline to -5.6%, its first two-day -5% move since 1/2 – 1/3/24. Before that, it last had a -5% two-day decline in December’22.
- [03/12/24 - 2 Shorts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/03-12-24-2-shorts/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns AKAM Short
- [Four Straight Successful Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four-straight-successful-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- Before rolling over on Friday, the SPX acquired its latest bullish pattern target of 5,180, its fourth straight since the October’23 lows. 2- That leaves us with just one live bullish formation, the biggest of them all, with a target still up at 6,100. 3- GLD Gold is up eight
- [Week Ending 3/8/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-8-24/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly SPX: Channels –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum, GDX –Worst 20 ETFs: MSOS, LIT –Major Indices: MDY, NDX –Sectors: XLU, XLY –Style: DVY, MTUM –Industries: KRE, IGV –Foreign Markets: EWT, EWZ –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: GLD, SLV –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX’s 1.2% intra-day negative reversal
- [A Day Later](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-day-later/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged 14 1% gains vs. four 1% losses since the October low. 2- The SPX is +2.3% from the low on March 5th, which is about half-way to the average multi-day rally we’ve seen in 2024 (+4.5%). 3- The Dollar’s decline yesterday triggered a triangle breakdown,
- [AAPL vs. SPX: Most Oversold Ever](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/aapl-vs-spx-most-oversold-ever/) - Key Points: 1- AAPL ranks 74/75 among the S&P 500’s Technology stocks YTD. 2- The AAPL/SPX relative ratio now has a 14-day RSI of 13, which is the LOWEST in history. 3- The second lowest AAPL/SPX 14-day RSI ratio happened in July 1993 (RSI of 14). Topics Covered: AAPL -Various charts and
- [03/07/24 - 3 Buys, 1 Short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/03-07-24-3-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts EPAM, IT, ETRN Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns PINS
- [After a 1% Decline](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-a-1-decline/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged four 1% losses since the October’23 lows – one each in December, January, February and now, March. It has had a 1% gain the very next day after each of the last three times. 2- With 35% stocks advancing yesterday, it was the best breadth on
- [The First Time in 11 Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-time-in-11-weeks/) - Key Points: 1- For the first time in eleven weeks, more than 100 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs yesterday. In fact, with 114, it was the most since 229 from May 2021. 2- The SPX’s move from the 2/13 low now equals +4.7%, which is right in line with the prior mini
- [February Performance & March Outlook](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/february-performance-march-outlook/) - Topics Covered: -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – February -Patterns – March -March Seasonality -After a strong Jan-Feb Key Charts -Monthly Breadth: SPX -Best 20 ETFs: SMH -Worst 20 ETFs: UNG, URA -Major Indices: All charts -Sectors: XLE, XLB -Style: MTUM, IWD -Industries: ARKK, IGE -Foreign Markets: FXI, EWU -Fixed Income: 10-Yr Yield -Commodities: Crude Oil, SLV
- [March](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX and its cumulative advance-decline line both finished at all-time closing highs yesterday. 2- The SPX formed two new trading boxes this past month, as each consolidation phase continues to be resolved to the upside. 3- The RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF starts March with two breakouts in motion,
- [An Extra Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/an-extra-day/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has outperformed its historical bias in January and February (with one day left). See more below. 2- The index will need to exhibit four important characteristics for the uptrend to persist in March. 3- The GBTC Bitcoin ETF just logged its fourth 3-day gain of at least +18%
- [Rallies & Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rallies-drawdowns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has gained 24% from the 10/27/23 low to the most recent 2/23/24 high. Along the way, there have been six mini rallies that have ranged between +3.9% and +6.6%. 2- The intermittent retracements have ranged between -2.4% and -1.1%. 3- With Bitcoin’s spike continuing, let’s recall what it
- [Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/digestion-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its mid-point for the second straight day on Monday. The index only logged three in a row once since the October lows (1/3-1/5/24). 2- Bearish patterns continue to fail. There have been five iterations since November for the SPX, and each one of them has been negated.
- [Chart Trades - 02/27/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-trades-02-27-24-4-buys-1-short/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts DOW, ZTS, SITE, POOL Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
- [Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/momentum/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-day RSI hasn’t touched (let alone breach) the 50-zone since late October. As long as that remains the case, the uptrend will persist. 2- The 14-period RSI on the 2-hour chart hasn’t touched oversold since late October either. 3- The 14-week RSI just hit 75, the highest
- [Week Ending 2/23/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-2-23-24/) - Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Weekly MAs, RSI –Best 20 ETFs: AMLP, EWI –Worst 20 ETFs: HACK, PBW –Major Indices: MDY, IWM –Sectors: XLY, XLU –Style: IWD, IWS –Industries: MSOS, KRE –Foreign Markets: EUFN, VNM –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX got back
- [Another Pattern Breakout](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-pattern-breakout/) - Key Points: 1- A new bullish pattern was triggered yesterday for the SPX: target 5,180. 2- The big move kept the index above the four-month uptrend line we’ve been referencing. 3- The index gained 2% with fewer than 60% NYSE stocks advancing yesterday for the just fourth time since 1960. Topics Covered: Market-2% gain study-AI
- [Not Yet...](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/not-yet-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s hold yesterday produced a higher low vs. the 2/14 low point, which keeps the next potential bullish pattern in play. 2- On the weekly chart, SMH Semis remains inside the tight upward sloping trading channel and noticeably above the 2023 breakout zone. See more below. 3- IGV Software quietly was
- [Watch this Trendline](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/watch-this-trendline/) - Key Points: 1– The SPX hasn’t had more than two straight negative breadth sessions since four in a row from 11/6-11/9/23. 2- A real warning sign would be seeing the SPX pierce the uptrend line that stems from the October’23 low. 3- The 10-day moving average also can provide helpful feedback about the
- [In Limbo](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/in-limbo/) - Key Points: 1– The SPX now has had two weekly declines in the last 16 weeks. The last time we saw two straight weekly losses was during the period ending 10/27/23 – the low. 2- The SPX now has seen five absolute 1% moves in the last 13 trading days, which is the most
- [The Staircase Advance](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-staircase-advance/) - Key Points: 1– A new potential bullish pattern has been building for the SPX after the bounce back. See more below. 2- On Thursday, Technology was the only sector to finish lower, but with 80% of the SPX up, the cumulative adv-dec line made a convincing new high. 3- The RSP Equal Weight
- [No Downside Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-downside-follow-through/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had three 1% declines since the 10/27/23 low, and each one has been immediately followed by a 1% gain the next day. 2- We’ll be watching for clusters of 1% declines going forward: The SPX went just eight days between big down sessions this time vs. the
- [02/14/24 - 4 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/02-14-24-4-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts RBLX, FRSH, DAY, OKTA Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern
- [Nothing has Changed Yet](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/nothing-has-changed-yet/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown got to -2.6% at yesterday’s low, which now is the largest peak-to-trough move of the rally, but still very small overall. 2- The index’s daily RSI got knocked off its overbought ledge yesterday, but it hasn’t been below the 50 level since November 1st. 3- The long-term
- [SPX & CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-cpi-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to log a gain two weeks after the CPI report for the fourth straight time. 2- The SPX ended yesterday with a 14-Day RSI reading of 72, thus, it starts today (near or at) overbought for the third time in the last four months on CPI
- [SPX 5,030](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-5030/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX hit our 5,030-price target on Friday, making it three straight major successful patterns since the lows. 2-The index comes into today overbought from a daily and two-hour RSI perspective. This hasn’t happened too often since mid-December. See more below. 3-The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF hit a new
- [Week Ending 2/9/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-2-9-24/) - Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum, UGA –Worst 20 ETFs: UNG, URA –Major Indices: MDY, IWM –Sectors: XLY, XLU –Style: FFTY, SPLV –Industries: XBI, GDX –Foreign Markets: EWT, EWJ –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar Weekly Performance SPX The SPX’s weekly win streak now
- [5 Factors Driving the Market Higher](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/5-factors-driving-the-market-higher/) - Key Points: We review each of these below: 1-Good closes 2-Short daily streaks of negative breadth 3-Small amount of big down days 4-Shallow drawdowns 5-Failed bearish patterns Topics Covered: Market -5 factors driving the market higher -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily Price Action -Index Breadth -Sector Performance -Best & Worst ETFs SPX: The SPX comes
- [02/08/24 - 2 buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/02-08-24-2-buys/) - For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts BALL, QRVO Buy the dip in an uptrend Severely oversold Shorts Bearish Pattern Breakdowns
- [Milestones](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/milestones/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s eventual first push above 5k has a high probability of being revisited if history is any guide. 2- The SPX ended yesterday within 70 bps of the 5,030-target. 3- Bitcoin is breaking out of a multi-week bullish pattern, with an upside target up near 48.5k. Topics Covered: Market -Prior
- [Before and After the Big Daily Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/before-and-after-the-big-daily-moves/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has had just two 1% declines in the last 71 trading days. Over that same time, there have been eleven 1% gains. Over a 12-month period, that would equal 39 1% gains and seven 1% declines. 2- So far in 2024, there have been three weeks of positive breadth and
- [New Highs vs. New Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-highs-vs-new-lows/) - Key Points: 1- On 12/14/24, 107 S&P 500 holdings made new 52-week highs, which was the high mark since the October lows. We haven’t gotten close to that level since, which is a divergence worth watching. 2- If/when a bigger retracement finally materializes, we’ll be keeping a close eye on the weekly Bollinger Bands. In
- [Three Straight 1% Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-straight-1-moves/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX finished last week with three straight absolute 1% moves, which last happened from 1/30/23- 2/3/23 – exactly a year ago. We compare both periods in more detail below. 2- See the chart of all the three straight 1% moves going back to 2021 below. 3– The US Dollar quietly
- [January Performance & February Outlook](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/january-performance-february-outlook/) - Topics Covered: SPX -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Patterns – January -Patterns – February -February Seasonality -After a strong January Key Charts -Monthly Breadth: SPX -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, MTUM -Worst 20 ETFs: LIT, TAN, PBW, PALL -Major Indices: OEF, IWC -Sectors: XLC, XLY -Style: FFTY, RRP -Industries: SMH, OIH -Foreign Markets: TUR, FXI -Fixed Income: 10-Yr
- [Two Potential Bearish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-potential-bearish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had two 1% declines in the last 64 trading days. 2- We’re watching two potential bearish formations in the SPX after yesterday: one on the two-hour chart, the other on the daily chart. See below. 3– The 10-Year Yield remains below the resistance lines we discussed yesterday.
- [FOMC, SPX & the 10-Year Yield](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fomc-spx-the-10-year-yield/) - Key Points: 1- Over the last two years, there have been 16 FOMC decisions. Eight times the SPX was lower two weeks later, and eight times the index was higher two weeks later. 2- Below we compare the current trading environment to the first meeting of 2023, which happened on 2/1/23. 3– The XLF
- [Another Target Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-target-hit/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX achieved its latest pattern target of 4,920 on Monday, logging its fourth best gain of January. 2- With two trading sessions left in the month, the SPX has logged two 1% moves – both gains. That puts it way behind last January’s pace of big days (11 absolute 1% moves
- [Drawdowns, Breadth & Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/drawdowns-breadth-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s biggest drawdown has been -2.4% since the October lows despite plenty of potential warning signs. 2- Through 61 trading sessions since 10/27/23, we’ve seen negative breadth extend beyond two straight days just one time for the SPX – from 11/6 – 11/9 (four in a row). 3– The IWC
- [Week Ending 1/26/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-1-26-24/) - Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – Winning streaks 2021-24 –Best 20 ETFs: New All Time Highs –Worst 20 ETFs: New 52-Week Lows –Major Indices: IWM, NDX –Sectors: XLE –Style: IWN, IWS –Industries: SOCL, ARKK –Foreign Markets: FEZ, EIDO –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Natural Gas –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX While
- [Trading Boxes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trading-boxes/) - Key Points: 1- For the SPX, it’s been a series of breakouts, extensions, pauses, breakouts, extensions, pauses, etc. Each pause has formed a trading range – or a box. 2- From this perspective, trading box number four could now be under construction. 3– ARKK hasn’t closed above its 50-day MA since 1/12/24; XLK is
- [Another Long Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-long-winning-streak/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days. Since the start of 2009, the SPX has had 64 winning streaks of at least five (non-overlapping observations). The index was higher 10 trading days later 80% of the time, with an average move of +0.8%. It’s been even more bullish recently… see below.
- [Three Key Factors](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-key-factors/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point 9/11 times going back to 1/8… and 46/58 days or 79% of the time since the October low. 2- The SPX now has had positive market internals in four straight sessions, which is the fifth streak of at least four consecutive days of
- [01/23/24 - 4 Buys, 1 Short](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/01-23-24-4-buys-1-short/) - Below are four buys and one short idea. The first three buys are names within the NASDAQ Next Gen 100 Index, which we discussed in the webinar last Friday. For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in
- [Rallies vs. Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rallies-vs-drawdowns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s breadth was just as robust yesterday (72% advancing stocks) as it was on Friday (74%) when the index was up 1.1%. In fact, if we include the R2k’s near 90%-day, Monday’s trading session actually was a lot stronger. 2- The SPX had various multi-week advances between four and five percent
- [Breakouts, Bullish Patterns and 1% Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-bullish-patterns-and-1-moves/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has logged nine 1% gains vs. one 1% decline since 10/26/23 – or 57 trading sessions. Of the eight prior 1% advances, the SPX has logged another up move the next day seven times. 2- With 74% of the index up on Friday, it was the first 70%+ day
- [Week Ending 1/19/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-1-19-24/) - Topics Covered: –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX -Weekly SPX – 12-week ROC –Best 20 ETFs: New All Time Highs –Worst 20 ETFs: New 52-Week Lows –Major Indices: DJIA, MDY –Sectors: XLK, XLU –Style: FFTY, RSP –Industries: SMH –Foreign Markets: EIRL, THD –Fixed Income: ZROZ –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX From last Wednesday’s
- [One Time in 56 Trading Sessions](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-time-in-56-trading-sessions/) - Key Points: 1- The afternoon up-swings have been gradually happening earlier over the last four days: 3:15, 2:15, 1:45 and 1:15, respectively. 2- There’s been just a single 1% gain (1/8) and no 1% losses so far in January. In fact, we’ve had just one 1% decline in 56 trading days now – the last
- [Tug of War](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/tug-of-war/) - Key Points: 1- The short-term conundrum: The SPX now has declined in 4/6 sessions and has had negative internals in those same 4/6 sessions. But the index has closed above its mid-point 6/7 days. A more detailed discussion is below. 2- The MACD triggered the second sell signal of this extension as the year began.
- [A Notable Change in Daily Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-notable-change-in-daily-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- Since 12/29/23, there have been 11 trading days. Over that time, the % of advancing S&P 500 stocks has surpassed 70% just one time (1/8), while the percentage has undercut 30% four times, including yesterday (29%). See more below. 2- The SPX has been knocking on the door of its four-week trading range, but
- [Week Ending 1/12/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-1-12-24/) - Topics Covered: Market -Weekly performance -Key weekly moving averages -Patterns -AVWAP Stats -Daily Price Action -Index Breadth -Sector Performance -Best & Worst ETFs PostScript – Key Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: URA, HACK –Worst 20 ETFs: PBW, OIH –Major Indices: NDX, IWC –Sectors: XLC, XLE –Style: MTUM, IWN –Industries: IGV, XME –Foreign Markets:
- [Good Closes Continue](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/good-closes-continue-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has closed above its intra-day midpoint for: 4/4 days (100%) 19/24 days (79%) 30/38 days (79%) 41/51 days (80%) 2- Short-term, the 14-period RSI on the two-hour chart never did hit oversold territory last week, though it got close. See why this is important below. 3- We break
- [CPI, Momentum Divergence and Crypto](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cpi-momentum-divergence-and-crypto/) - Key Points: 1- This is the first time in the last three releases that the SPX’s 14-day RSI is NOT overbought coming into CPI. 2- Because many of the SPX’s components haven’t matched what its biggest names have done, momentum has lagged. An RSI negative divergence has developed. See below. 3- Updates on Bitcoin
- [01/11/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/01-03-24-2/) - Here are four NDX components with bullish charts. For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts MNST GOOGL Buy the dip in an uptrend ORLY
- [Japan Focus](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/japan-focus/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX followed Monday’s 1.4% gain with a tiny loss yesterday, which is nothing new. The last five 1% gains now all have been followed by extremely small movement the next day. 2- The Japan Nikkei 225 index shot higher last evening by 2%, following through on the prior day’s marginal pattern
- [The First Bounce of '24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-bounce-of-24/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX respected the middle line of the Bollinger Bands yesterday – its 20-Day MA. The epitome of an uptrend is seeing any security oscillate continuously between the upper band and the 20-Day MA. 2- There’s been just one 1% decline since October 26, which spans 49 trading days. The SPX has
- [What the Short-term Work is Telling Us](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-the-short-term-work-is-telling-us/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX closed below its intra-day mid-point again on Friday, which has become a short-term trend in the new year. 2- The number of new 52-week lows has been pinned close to zero for nearly two months. While it’s a lagging indicator, if the new lows number starts to gradually move higher,
- [Week Ending - 1/5/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-1-5-24/) - Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IHF, MSOS –Worst 20 ETFs: ARKK, SMH –Major Indices: DJIA, IWM –Sectors: XLV, XLK –Style: DVY, SPHB –Industries: KIE, XHB –Foreign Markets: GXG, EZA –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Ethereum Weekly Performance SPX As we know by now, the SPX’s
- [Retracement](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/retracement/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the SPX closed below its 20-Day Moving Average for the first time since 11/2. See more below. 2- There are two potential bearish set ups we’re watching in the SPX right now. 3- The Dollar is breaking out from a bullish pattern and testing a key downtrend line. In December, a similar
- [Indicator Check Up](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/indicator-check-up-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/28 high now is -2%, which is still less than each of the drawdowns from April through July (all between 2.4% and 3.5%). 2- For the first time since early November, the SPX is testing the middle line of its Bollinger Bands, which, of course, is the 20-Day
- [01/03/24](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/01-03-24/) - Here’s the first set of trade ideas for 2024. We’ll convey these by category as noted below. For each buy idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in blue 2-target 3-the suggested stop in red For each short idea, you’ll see: 1-the pattern in red 2-target 3-the suggested stop in blue Buys Bullish Pattern Breakouts
- [2023 Wrap & 2024 Game Plan](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/2023-wrap-2024-game-plan/) - Stats: Of the trade ideas we conveyed, 25 went live. 20 buys: 60%-win rate 5 shorts: 80%-win rate Each live trade was closed out at the closing price on 12/29/23. See below for the full stats. Takeaways Buying breakouts in an uptrend (November and December) worked better than buying breakouts in a downtrend (October). That’s
- [Now vs. August'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-august23/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour 14-period RSI hit its lowest level (41) since the October lows on Tuesday. During the spring – summer rally, it hit oversold territory for the first time on August 2nd, which clearly marked a top. 2- We review other similarities between now and August below – and one key difference.
- [What's Next](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/whats-next/) - Key Points: 1- The NDX just logged its best year since 1999. The NDX is +1% since its November’21 high. From 1998 through 1999, it was up over 280%. See more below. 2- The SPX’s big bullish pattern remains in play to start 2024. The upside target is near 5,030. 3- The R2k just logged a
- [Snapback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/snapback-2/) - Key Points: 1- We haven’t seen a 1% advance immediately follow at 1% loss in a while. The last time it happened was from 1/30 – 1/31/23. 2- Yesterday’s 1% advance also was an “inside day,” with all the day’s price action taking place inside the prior trading session’s candle. 3- The Santa Claus Rally Indicator
- [Gut Check](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/gut-check/) - Key Points: 1- We look at yesterday’s reversal vs. the one on 7/27 and how the response needs to be different over the short-term. 2- The SPX’s drawdown from the 12/20 high is 1.7%, which still is among the smallest of 2023. 3- One metric we should watch closely from here is the number of new
- [12/20/23 - Final 2023 Report](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-20-23-final-2023-report/) - Observations Given the continued light run up through yesterday, we held off on issuing any new buy ideas since the last report on 12/13. At any point, there has been a risk of a negative reversal. And now, there’s a potential for a downside follow through, as well. While the biggest breakouts still have
- [No Short-Term Blemishes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-short-term-blemishes/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has closed above its intra-day mid-point for nine consecutive days and 13/14. 2- The SPX’s 14-period RSI on the two-hour chart only has been below its mid-point one time since the lows. See below. 3- The R2k IWM ETF now is back to the top of its big trading range
- [SPX's 14-Day RSI > 80](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spxs-14-day-rsi-80/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI closed above 80 yesterday for the first time since 9/1/20. That marked a key top. Some others since 1989 did NOT. See below. 2- The SPX now has closed above its mid-point for eight consecutive days and 12/13. 3- The XLY Consumer Discretionary ETF now up ten straight days
- [Seven Straight Up Weeks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/seven-straight-up-weeks/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is up seven-straight weeks, its sixth streak of at least seven straight weekly gains since 2009. See more below. 2- It took 34 trading days for the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index to flip from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed. 3- The US Dollar finished last week just above the
- [The Most Impressive Part of this Rally](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-impressive-part-of-this-rally/) - Key Points: 1- We compare this comeback to the Q4 2019 extension and post COVID 2020 snapback below. 2-The SPX’s biggest drawdown from any intra-day high point has been 1.2%. In fact, the SPX only has fallen more than 1% below any high just two times overall. 3- One to watch: IGV Software logged its biggest
- [Two SPX Targets Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-spx-targets-hit/) - Key Points: 1- With the 1.4% spike, the SPX achieved two of our pattern targets, 4,675 and 4,700. That leaves us with the big inverse H&S pattern, which has a target up near 5,030. 2- From here, it will be important to monitor how the index closes on an intra-day basis. The SPX has finished above its
- [FOMC, New Highs & Winning Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fomc-new-highs-winning-streaks/) - Key Points: 1- So far in 2023, there have been seven FOMC meetings. Two weeks later, the SPX has been lower four times and up three times. 2- Yesterday, 77 S&P 500 components made new 52-week highs, which is the most of this rally and the greatest amount since 81 from 6/30/23. 3- The ETFs we
- [12/13/23 - Full Report & 3 New Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-13-23-full-report-3-new-buys/) - Observations With the market’s extension showing no cracks yet ahead of the FOMC, many stocks have gone along for the ride. Various names have broken out of classical technical patterns, some of which we’ve profiled here. Others simply have shot up in parabolic fashion without the benefit of constructing any noticeable pattern whatsoever. In
- [Overbought, Bullish Patterns & CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/overbought-bullish-patterns-cpi/) - Key Points: 1- This is the fourth time in 2023 that the SPX enters CPI Day with a 14-day RSI reading either at (or close to) overbought levels. After the prior three (June, July and November), the SPX continued higher two weeks later. 2- Yesterday’s 78% advancing stocks for the SPX was the best since 12/1 (87%)
- [Big Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-week-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX concluded the first full week of December in positive territory, closing above 4,600 for the first time since 3/30/22 and notched its sixth straight weekly gain. 2- With all eyes on the CPI report and the FOMC meeting this week, we recall what happened during last year’s back-to-back events. See below. 3-
- [Week Ending 12/8/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-12-8-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, XBI –Worst 20 ETFs: SLV, PALL –Major Indices: IWC, DJIA –Sectors: XLY, XLE –Style: IWN, VTI –Industries: ARKK, IGE –Foreign Markets: EUFN, EZA –Fixed Income: ZROZ –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Ethereum, ETH vs. BTC Weekly Performance SPX The SPX logged
- [Now vs. Late July](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-late-july/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX finished at its second-highest closing level of the comeback yesterday, as it continues to flirt with resistance from December and July. See the key difference between now and then below. 2- XBI Biotech achieved its bullish pattern target yesterday. This has been very rare for XBI since topping in February’21 and could
- [12/7/23 - Four Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/12-7-23-four-bullish-patterns/) - Observations This is a quick note, as I wanted to relay a few bullish chart formations to keep on our radar screen. We’ll be back with a full update soon. New Potential Buys: LLY, INCY, AEP, FE LLY We profiled LLY a few weeks ago, but the inverse h/s pattern never triggered. Now it has
- [The Next 1% Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-1-day/) - Key Points: 1- In a poll I ran on X yesterday, 70% of the respondents expect the next 1% move to be on the downside. 2- At now 28 trading days between 1% declines, this isn’t even the longest streak of 2023 yet. From 5/24 – 8/1, the SPX went 47 sessions without a 1% loss. 3-
- [A Key Streak & Market Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-key-streak-market-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- While the SPX officially logged its first two-day decline since the October lows yesterday, the index also finished above its mid-range for the fourth straight session. 2- With just 18% advancing stocks on Tuesday, it was the worst breadth for the SPX since 10/27 – the low before the rally began. That’s not full
- [Rotating and Retracing](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/rotating-and-retracing/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX endured its biggest loss since 11/9/23 yesterday, but it could have been worse. The consistent bid in the suddenly new leading areas kept things in check. 2- With SMH Semis having filled its 11/14 gap after Monday, it will be trying to stay close to the September 1st high (support). 3- IWM
- [1% Moves Tell the Story](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-moves-tell-the-story/) - Key Points: 1- While big moves haven’t returned, the bid has remained. In fact, 87% of the S&P 500 holdings were up on Friday, which was the best breadth since 11/14 (93%). 2- Thus far in ‘23, the SPX has registered 63 absolute 1% moves (36 up, 27 down). That’s just about HALF the amount we had
- [November'23 and Week Ending 12/1/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/november23-and-week-ending-12-1-23/) - Topics Covered: November -Monthly track -Monthly chart -Most important chart -November breadth -Full November Perf Breakdown Week Ending 12/1/23 -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: XBI, KRE –Worst 20 ETFs: UNG, OIH –Major Indices: IWC, NDX –Sectors: XLRE, XLC –Style: IWN, MTUM –Industries: XRT, SMH –Foreign Markets: EWC, FXI –Fixed
- [December](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/december/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s November gain of 8.9% was among the best Novembers in history and one of the biggest months overall: Going back to 1950, it ranks 18. 2- The index has outperformed all months over various time horizons after big monthly advances. See more below. 3- The SPX is now below the steep uptrend
- [November's Two Halves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/novembers-two-halves/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has had daily moves of +/-0.4% or less in nine of the last 10 days. Those 10 days have defined the month’s second half, with the explosive momentum noticeably slowing after that 11/14 CPI-induced 1.6% gain. 2- For the first time since July, the SPX has made a higher monthly low.
- [11/30/23 - Full Report & 2 New Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-30-23-full-report-2-new-buys/) - Observations With the SPX still in pause mode over the last two weeks, many stocks have continued to digest their big gains. But there are still a lot more names much closer to overbought vs. oversold levels: 150 S&P 500 names have RSI readings of 65 or higher vs. just ten with RSIs at or below
- [Sellers' Strike](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/sellers-strike/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX rose for the eighth time in the last ten trading sessions on Tuesday, but it also moved less than 20 bps for the seventh time in the last eight days. 2- If the small moves continue, this digestive phase could give way to fresh bullish patterns. See below. 3- The SPX has
- [Hovering](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hovering/) - Key Points: 1- In six of the last eight days, the SPX hasn’t moved more than 20 bps; it started this rally with five 1% gains in 12 days. 2- The 14-period RSI on the two-hour chart finished below overbought territory on Monday, ending a streak of eight consecutive sessions. From March through July, the 2-hour RSI
- [11/27/23 - Two Buys](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-27-23-two-buys/) - Observations With the market pausing during the holiday-shortened week, a number of stocks have been able to digest some prior moves, as well. This has helped some patterns we’ve been watching mature. Here are two new buy ideas to consider. New Potential Buys: STLD, ETSY STLD STLD has caught our eye a few times in
- [Week Ending 11/24/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-11-24-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: KWEB, HACK –Worst 20 ETFs: UNG, MSOS –Major Indices: DJIA –Sectors: XLV, XLP –Style: PSP, PFF –Industries: WFH, PJP –Foreign Markets: EWO, EPHE –Fixed Income: EMB –Commodities: SLV, WOOD –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX logged
- [After the Feast](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-feast/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 15/18 days. 2- The 14-Day RSI has been overbought for three straight days. The 14-period RSI on the two-hour chart has been overbought for seven consecutive sessions. 3- Both bullish patterns continue to be in play. Topics Covered: Market -Overbought – Daily -Overbought – 2-hr -Key trendlines -Pattern update
- [The Steep Uptrend Line](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-steep-uptrend-line/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX remains above the VERY steep uptrend line drawn from the October 27th low. We expect this line to be broken soon. But that’s not the important part… see more below. 2- Yesterday, 29 SPX stocks made new 52-week highs, but another 83 are within 3% of their highs right now. 3-
- [11/22/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-22-23/) - Observations With the SPX going from oversold to overbought in 16 trading sessions, many stocks have extended from their breakout zones. Two of them are AVGO and CPRT, which the model continues to hold with raised stops. However, there are others that have paused recently and could be getting ready for their next breakout attempts.
- [Round Trip](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/round-trip/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up five straight days, its third longest winning streak of the year. 2- Yesterday’s gain also produced the first official daily overbought reading in the SPX’s 14-D RSI of this run. It was last oversold on 10/27/23 – the day it bottomed. See more below. 3- The SPX’s bull
- [Large Three-Week Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/large-three-week-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is +9.6% over the last three weeks. Prior three-week advances of at least 9.5% have been rare going back to 2008. When they have occurred, though, they’ve been bullish signals. 2- The SPX continues to hover near overbought territory on the two-hour chart. This can’t last forever. During the long run from mid-March
- [Week Ending 11/17/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-11-17-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: TAN, XBI –Worst 20 ETFs: VIX –Major Indices: IWC, IWM –Sectors: XLRE, XLP –Style: VTI, AMLP –Industries: KIE, XME –Foreign Markets: EUFN, GXG –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: GLD, PPLT –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Ethereum Weekly Performance SPX The SPX
- [The Next Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- Two more potential bullish patterns have taken shape this week for the SPX – a bull flag and a much bigger inverse H&S pattern. 2- Over the last 13 months, four very big bearish patterns failed. Those were reversal patterns. The current versions are continuation patterns happening within a long-term uptrend. 3- Despite IWM’s
- [11/17/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-17-23/) - Observations With the SPX in pause mode right now, many stocks have begun to digest their big gains. The hope is that this keeps the breakouts in motion and/or helps construct another round of bullish patterns, which would help produce new up-legs. For buy ideas, we continue to look mostly for the stocks that haven’t
- [Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breadth/) - Key Points: 1- Of the five 1% gains that the SPX has logged since 10/30, four times at least 80% of S&P 500 stocks advanced. 2- 90% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-Day MAs now. While that can’t be sustained, the percentage stayed near the 90% threshold for weeks (sometimes months) before a trading top
- [The Encore](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-encore/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 12-day rate of change now is over +9%. Going back to 2016, this kind of move has led to further gains 6/8 times. The two outliers, of course, were in 2022 before the October low. 2- This pace can’t continue but breaking a steep uptrend line does NOT mean the longer
- [SPX & CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-cpi/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI finished at 61 yesterday. In June and July, the index went into the CPI report overbought both times, and two weeks later, the SPX was higher both times. 2- Our Market Strength Indicator (MSI) has improved over the last two weeks, but it’s not stretched yet. 3- The upside
- [11/14/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-14-23/) - Observations With the SPX’s extension continuing, breakouts have been working, including the last three we cited here: AVGO, CPRT and HLT. Many more are like this that we’re watching, but they are getting short-term extended. This being the case, the question is if we’re going to see rotation soon. In yesterday’s Opening Look, we
- [1% Gains & Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-gains-bullish-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fourth 1% gain in the last 10 trading days. For some context, the index logged four 1% advances in 12 WEEKS from the July high to the October low. 2- Friday’s pop triggered the SPX latest bullish pattern, which now has an upside target near 4,675. 3- XLC Comm
- [Week Ending 11/10/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-11-10-23/) - Topics Covered: Topics highlighted: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: IGV, HACK –Worst 20 ETFs: PALL, PBW –Major Indices: NDX, IWC –Sectors: XLK, XLC –Style: IWF, IWN –Industries: SMH, KRE –Foreign Markets: EWZ, THD –Fixed Income: TLT –Commodities: SOYB, GLD –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX
- [Searching for Higher Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/searching-for-higher-lows/) - Key Points: 1- With yesterday’s pullback, the SPX has a chance to complete one of two bullish patterns in the coming days. See the updated charts below. 2- For the IWM R2k to hold near key long-term support, it will need help from KRE Regional Banks, which now is -5.7% for the week and below the
- [11/10/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-10-23/) - Observations While the SPX’s long winning streak has gotten a lot of attention, plenty of individual stocks have logged pretty amazing runs the last two weeks, as well. Some are making new highs, while others have rallied back to resistance (like DGX that we profiled two days ago). While a general market pullback would
- [Consolidating with Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/consolidating-with-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up eight straight trading sessions. Since 2003 there have been just eight prior winning streaks of at least eight days. The SPX was higher 10 days later 75% of the time. 2- While IWM R2k has lost 1% in two of the last three days, holding near current levels
- [COST, ISRG](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cost-isrg/) - COST stands out because it made a new 52-week high yesterday. But simply seeing its symbol pop up on a new highs screen doesn’t tell us too much. Its chart does. COST is among the first stock in the S&P 500 to have returned to its July high, and it has done so by forming
- [A New CappThesis Report](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-new-cappthesis-report/) - What is “Chart Trades?” Chart Trades is exactly as it sounds – trade ideas based on charts. How is it different than the other reports? While the chart patterns will look familiar, we’ll be providing a lot more details: 1-Suggested entry and exit levels 2-Reasons for entering & exiting 3-Performance tracking per trade
- [The Next 5%](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-5/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s current 7-day winning streak is the longest since eight from November’21. From 2020-21, the index logged five different winning streaks of at least seven, with the November’21 edition being the fifth of five. 2- In a poll I ran on X this morning, nearly 60% of the respondents believe the next
- [11/8/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/11-8-23/) - Chart Trades Publishing Schedule Through the initial weeks of the Chart Trades report, we’ve provided updates once or twice a week. With trading opportunities present more frequently than that, we want to communicate more set ups more often. So, the plan is to continue providing a formal report like this once a week, while sharing
- [The Need for Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-need-for-digestion/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX squeaked out its sixth straight gain on Monday. The last streak longer than six happened during the period ending 11/8/21, when the SPX logged eight consecutive up days – exactly two years ago. 2- The last six days also prompted the NINTH short-term overbought condition of 2023. Over the last eight
- [Week Ending 11/3/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-11-3-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Advances -SPX Breadth Thrusts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: ARKK, KRE –Worst 20 ETFs: GDX, WEAT –Major Indices: IWM, DJIA –Sectors: XLF, XLRE –Style: VIX –Industries: XBI, OIH –Foreign Markets: EZA, EWJ –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: URA –Currencies: UUP US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance
- [More 1% Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/more-1-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s four-day rate of change now totals +4.9%, which is MUCH bigger than the prior two four-day winning streaks since August. It’s the largest four-day advance of 2023, as well. 2- This also is the SPX’s THIRD set of consecutive 1% advances of 2023. It last happened from June 1-2, which led
- [Comparing the Rebounds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/comparing-the-rebounds/) - Key Points: 1- This SPX will be trying for its third four-day advance since August. The other two looked promising, as sentiment began to swing from depressed to hopeful, like now. 2- There is one key difference so far this time. The SPX just logged its second 1% advance in the last three days. We
- [October'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october23/) - Topics Covered: -November after Declines in August, September and October -October patterns -Monthly track -Monthly losing streaks -Most important chart -October breadth -20 Best -20 Worst -Major Indices -Sectors -Style -Industries -Global Mkts -Fixed Income -Commodities -Currencies -Crypto November after Declines in August, September and October As we know, the SPX comes into November
- [October Wrap](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/october-wrap/) - Observations October’23 underperformed the historical monthly average, which negated most breakout attempts along the way. The buy ideas that went live in our Chart Trades model were relayed in the month’s first half, and while their breakouts looked promising, each one was stopped out. The five bullish patterns that we profiled on 10/17 never
- [Another Attempt](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-attempt-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its third 1% gain of October, which is the most since five in June. However, back then there were ZERO 1% declines, compared to five 1% losses this month. 2- The index finished near its intra-day highs on an up-day for the first time since 10/16, which we’ll need
- [Oversold](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/oversold/) - Key Points: 1- Of the three down legs since the July 27th high, the current pullback has been both the steepest and the shortest up to this point. 2- The SPX now is oversold from both the daily and 2-hour timeframes for the first time since October 3rd – the former low point. 3- The CNN
- [Week Ending 10/27/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-10-27-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: UNG, KWEB –Worst 20 ETFs: MSOS, IYT –Major Indices: NDX, IWM –Sectors: XLE, XLC –Style: VIX –Industries: XRT, TAN –Foreign Markets: EPOL, EPHE –Fixed Income: 10-Year –Commodities: GLD, SLV –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Ethereum Weekly Performance SPX The SPX fell
- [Drawdowns & Clusters of 1% Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/drawdowns-clusters-of-1-declines/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% loss in October yesterday, which ties February and March for the most in 2023. The difference between this month so far is that we’ve only had two 1% gains vs. six and four in February and March, respectively. 2- The SPX also just endured its second straight
- [Selling Pressure](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/selling-pressure/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -1% declines -Consecutive 1% declines -Patterns -Drawdowns Stats -Index Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst ETFs Key Charts -NDX -XLC -XLK -XLRE -OIH
- [Bearish Patterns, 1% Declines and Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bearish-patterns-1-declines-and-volatility/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged its fourth 1% loss in October, which is the most in a calendar month since five in March. 2- The SPX is close to triggering its second bearish formation, just as it tests major support in the 4,180s. 3- The VIX now is sporting two potential bullish formations.
- [One New Short Idea](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-new-short-idea/) - Observations With the market continuing to struggle, upside for individual stocks has been limited. Thus, each one of our buy ideas have either been stopped out or not triggered at all. On the flip side, the short ideas all have been profitable as of now. Had we started this piece in the second quarter,
- [SPX & Bitcoin](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-bitcoin/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged a gain and closed near its highs yesterday – a simple combination that’s hasn’t happened often the last two weeks. 2- Bitcoin spiked yesterday, but this leg of the advance really got going last week – as every other risky asset was dropping hard. 3-It has been rare over the
- [Streaks in 2023](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/streaks-in-2023/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has a 5-day losing streak, the longest of ’23. Since 2017, the index experienced 14 prior five-day losing streaks. It was higher just 43% of the time 10 days later, with an avg. move of 17 bps. It will be instructive now if the market does NOT adhere to
- [1% Declines, Losing Streaks and Support](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-declines-losing-streaks-and-support/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged two 1% declines last week. The last time the index endured at least two 1% losses in a calendar week was the week ending 3/10/23 when it had three. 2- The SPX now also has a four-day losing streak, which last happened from 9/19 – 9/22. The last five-day
- [Two Financial Stocks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-financial-stocks/) - The bad news is that the bullish patterns we profiled in last Tuesday’s report never broke out. The good news is that this means none of them were triggered either. We’ll keep a few on our watch list, but most of the stocks got hit very hard and need time to regroup at the very
- [Week Ending 10/20/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-10-20-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Charts –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: SLV, Crude Oil –Worst 20 ETFs: KWEB, JETS –Major Indices: NDX –Sectors: XLE, XLK –Style: VIX –Industries: GLD, XHB –Foreign Markets: EWU, FXI –Fixed Income: ZROZ –Commodities: URA, PPLT –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX’s two-week
- [Downside Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/downside-momentum/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s downside follow-through finally negated the SPX’s small bullish pattern and retriggered the bearish formation. The downside target is again near 4,050. 2- The SPX now -3% from Tuesday’s high. The index dropped 3.3% soon after the March low before the uptrend took hold. See more below. 3- While the SPX avoided its second
- [Negated](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/negated/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Market -SPX (2) -RSP (2) -RSP vs. SPX (2) -10-Year Yield (2) Stats -Index Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst ETFs Key Charts -XLY -ARKK -CORN
- [Whipsawed](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/whipsawed-2/) - Key Points: 1- After yesterday’s 1% decline, the SPX now has logged two 1% gains and two 1% losses so far this month; we haven’t had more than five during a calendar month since March. 2- The 8/18-anchored VWAP line acted as strong resistance over the last week, and now SPY is sitting on
- [Holding Near a Key Zone](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/holding-near-a-key-zone/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is down three of the last four days, but the damage has been limited. Five days ago on 10/11, the SPX closed at 4,376; yesterday it finished at 4,373. 2- The SPX temporarily pushed above the breakout zone of the potential cup/handle formation we touched on yesterday. While that didn’t
- [Five Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/five-bullish-patterns/) - New stocks mentioned: J, URI, EQT, TT, AZO
- [Three Key Traits](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-key-traits/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX lacked three key ingredients needed for an uptrend through September. All three have been showing signs of returning lately. 2- The index has formed two new potential bullish formations after yesterday’s action. One very short-term and one bigger pattern. 3- The HACK Cyber Security ETF continues to exhibit relative strength and has formed a
- [Week Ending 10/13/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-10-13-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Pattern update -SPX: 20-DMA & RSI -AVWAP -Weekly Market Map –Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: GDX, VIX –Worst 20 ETFs: IHI –Major Indices: DJIA, IWC –Sectors: XLE, XLU –Style: AMLP, IWO –Industries: OIH, XRT –Foreign Markets: VNM, KSA –Fixed Income: ZROZ –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US
- [Updates](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/updates/) - SUMMARY Stocks mentioned: ISRG, DIS, GRMN, ZS, EPD, CMI, PCAR, CSX, PENN New Buys: EPD, ZS New Short: CMI Initiated trades since the last report: ISRG: shorted on the breakdown and lowered buy stop to 282 to protect profits. DIS: shorted on the price flip lower. GRMN: bought on return to the breakout
- [Test Number One (w/Video)](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/test-number-one-w-video/) - Video: Topics Covered: Market -Four Day Winning Streaks – 2023 -Pattern update -Breadth -USD & rates -AVWAP Stats -Index Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst ETFs Key Charts -XBI -IWC -KBWB -Crude Oil -Silver & Gold SPX: The late bid yesterday helped prevent a 1% decline. Here’s a close-up view of
- [Four Straight](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four-straight/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up four straight days. Since the start of 2017, of the prior 42 four-day winning streaks, ten days later, the index was higher 71% of the time, with an average move of 0.41%. 2- Through the first nine months of the year, two weeks after the CPI report,
- [A 3-Day Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-3-day-winning-streak/) - Key Points: 1- This now is the first three-day winning streak since four in a row in August. The three-day move of +2.35% is among the best three-day advances of 2023, as well. See more below. 2- This bounce is NOT different than the late August pop yet from one important aspect. The SPX has
- [GRMN, PCAR, ETR, DIS](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/grmn-pcar-etr-dis/) - The morning after our first report, COST gapped to 572.12, triggering the model’s buy stop. That was short-lived with Friday’s huge down open. Again, abiding by the model’s rules, we closed out of it, as noted here. GRMN is one we’ve highlighted in a past PostScript report. It continues to flirt with new highs, but
- [Big Two-Day Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-two-day-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now is up 1.8% over the last two-days. When two-day gains of at least 1.5% have happened in clusters this year, the best trading periods have resulted. 2- The MACD buy signal we touched on last week was triggered yesterday for the SPX. As we know, the last one did
- [Step One](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/step-one-2/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX logged its first 1% gain in 26 days on Friday, which is the longest streak since the SPX went 41 days without a 1% up-move from 7/26 through 9/21/21. See more below. 2- Friday’s 1.2% advance also was more than enough for the SPX to punch through its multi-week downtrend line.
- [Week Ending 10/6/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-10-6-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: UNG, SMH –Worst 20 ETFs: PBW, XOP –Major Indices: NDX, IWC –Sectors: XLC, XLE –Style: VTI, RSP –Industries: HACK, MSOS –Foreign Markets: TUR, EIDO –Fixed Income: 10 Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly
- [September & Q3'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/september-q323/) - Topics Covered: -October & Q4 after -1% August and September -Quarterly Win Streaks -Market Maps – Month, Qtr, YTD -Breadth Month and Qtr –20 Best September: MSOS, URA –20 Worst September: PBW, ARKK –Major Indices: NDX, IWM –Sectors: XLE, XLK –Style: AMLP, SPHB –Industries: OIH, JETS –Global Mkts: TUR Turkey, THD Thailand –Fixed Income: 10
- [Support Still Being Tested](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/support-still-being-tested/) - Key Points: 1- The most bullish thing we can say about the recent price action is that over the last seven days, the SPX has closed near its highs five times. So far, this has not been leveraged. 2- Currently, 35% of the S&P 500 are trading above their respective 200-Day MA, which it’s the
- [In Search of a Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/in-search-of-a-winning-streak/) - Key Points: 1- Other than the four-day pop at the end of August, winning streaks have been non-existent since the July high. 2- SMH Semis was among yesterday’s leaders and given its influence on Tech and the overall market, seeing how it does vs. these two converging trendlines (resistance) will be very significant. 3– This
- [In the Zone](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/in-the-zone/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX logging its fourth 1% decline since mid-September, the index now is staring at the confluence of support that we’ve been discussing lately. 2- A key step for a potential change of character would be breaking above the steep downward sloping channel that the SPX has been in the last
- [Separation](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/separation/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX remains below its breakdown zone but above the confluence of support it bounced near last week. 2- The RSP Equal Weight ETF was down 1.1% yesterday vs. the +0.1% move for the SPX. That puts RSP closer to its own downside target, as it’s now nearly to -11% from its
- [CappThesis - Year One in the Books](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cappthesis-year-one-in-the-books/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has formed a small bullish pattern over the last few days, which could provide a foundation for a bigger upswing. 2- On the arithmetic chart, the SPX remains inside a year-long upward channel, bouncing the lower line near its lows a few days ago. 3- XLC Communication Services outperformed yesterday
- [Bouncing](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bouncing/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -SPX -Market Stats -XLRE vs. XLU -ZROZ, TLT -XHB -XLC -JETS
- [Drawdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/drawdowns/) - Key Points: 1- Before the intra-day rally yesterday, the SPX extended its drawdown to approximately -8% from the August peak, which lines up with the last two big pullbacks. 2- However, what really stands out is the duration of the current drawdown. From the July 27th peak to yesterday’s trough (so far), it’s been 42
- [Small Caps Trying](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/small-caps-trying/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -IWM R2k ETF -20 Day Lows -SMH Semis -XLY Consumer Discretionary -XLU Utilities Performance Believe it or not, the SPX now has logged gains in two of the first three days this week. Monday’s hold was wasted immediately, thus, today’s
- [Clusters of Big Down Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/clusters-of-big-down-days/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third 1% decline of September. It also had three in August. We haven’t seen more than three 1% down moves in a calendar month since March (5). 2- The SPX has yet to log a 1% gain all month, which hasn’t happened since August’21. The index
- [Downside Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/downside-follow-through-3/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -Oversold ETFs -Dollar -XLK Tech -USO Crude Oil -EWG Germany Performance Monday’s mini bounce ended up being useless after all, with the SPX starting out poorly on Tuesday and ending near its lows again. It was the third 1% decline
- [It Starts with Good Closes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/it-starts-with-good-closes/) - Key Points: 1- The best part of yesterday’s action was seeing a close on the highs. This could be a start, but one good close in the midst of bad ones isn’t nearly enough. 2- SPY remains below the VWAP anchored to the FOMC decision from 9/20. This remains important short-term resistance line to get
- [Some Green](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/some-green/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -NDX -XBI Biotech -OIH Oil Services -JETS Airlines -EWW Mexico Performance At the very least, the SPX’s slight gain today prevented downside follow-through from Friday’s big bearish pattern breakdown. This wasn’t terribly surprising given how far the index had dropped
- [Long Weekly Losing Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/long-weekly-losing-streaks/) - Key Points: 1- Since the start of 2013, the SPX had 21 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. Over the next 20 days, it was higher 81% of the time, with an average move of 1.82%. 2- From January’70 through December’79, as rates were rising, the SPX logged 29 (non-overlapping) three-week losing streaks. Four weeks later, it
- [Week Ending 9/22/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-9-22-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth: SPX, NDX –Best 20 ETFs: VIX –Worst 20 ETFs: ARKK, KRE –Major Indices: DJIA, IWM –Sectors: XLK, XLE –Style: AMLP, FFTY –Industries: IHF, XRT –Stocks: INTC, KHC –Foreign Markets: VEU –Fixed Income: 10 Year Yield –Commodities: Silver –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly
- [Big Daily Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/big-daily-declines/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its sixth 1.6% loss of the year yesterday. Over the last twenty years, the index has averaged a YTD gain of 16% in years it had fewer than ten 1.6% declines vs. +9.6% YTD for ALL 20 years. See more below. 2- Yesterday 8/11 sector ETFs had fewer than
- [Bearish Pattern Triggered](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bearish-pattern-triggered/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s double top was triggered yesterday. Its downside target is near 4,320 – about 1.9% away. 2- Should that get hit, a much bigger bearish set-up could then be at risk of being completed. 3- The bearish patterns that worked in 2022 happened after strong, sharp bear market rallies. While the
- [Fed Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fed-volatility/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -ARKK -SMH Semis -XHB Home Builders -PPA Aerospace -GDX Gold Miners Performance The post-FOMC volatility we were promised arrived on cue today, with the first reaction being the right one – down. This, of course, became obvious as Chair Powell
- [FOMC, 10-Yr, SPX and USD](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fomc-10-yr-spx-and-usd/) - Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has risen every time two weeks post-FOMC since December’22 (except in March when it moved sideways). 2- The recent combination of rising rates and the dollar’s two-month unrelenting rally have had an obvious negative effect on equities. But not compared to 2022… see below. 3- The SPX remains below
- [Almost Time](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/almost-time/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -XLC Comm Services -KIE Insurance -USO Crude Oil -EWW Mexico -URA Uranium Performance The SPX lost 22 basis points today, but it finished near its highs. It was an inverse of yesterday – early weakness and late strength – and
- [Patterns and New Highs & Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/patterns-and-new-highs-lows/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX once again finished near the breakout zone of the small bullish pattern yesterday. 2- If the SPX is going to match the best long-term uptrends of recent years, then the number of stocks making new highs should materially expand. See more below. 3- The number of new lows has remained
- [Holding](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/holding/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -OIH Oil Services -SMH Semis -XRT Retail -XBI Biotech -Bitcoin Performance The SPX literally HELD its ground today with the 7-basis point gain on Monday – advancing for the first half of the trading session and pulling back in the
- [September's Second Half](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/septembers-second-half/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into September’s second half fresh off its first 1% loss since August 24th. The question is whether Friday’s downturn now kick starts a greater occurrence of large daily moves from here. 2- The average 20-year September path has shown buy interest through mid-month before fading and finishing lower. While
- [Week Ending 9/15/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-9-15-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: URA, SIL –Worst 20 ETFs: IGV, SMH –Major Indices: DJIA –Sectors: XLU, XLK –Style: PSP, IWO –Industries: XME, XHB –Stocks: EPD, MT –Foreign Markets: TUR –Fixed Income: 10 Year Yield –Commodities: PPLT Platinum –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance
- [Market Notes](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/market-notes/) - SPX The SPX’s comeback got a boost on Thursday, with the index logging its biggest gain since August 29th – the last time we saw a 1% advance. In fact, nearly halfway through September, we’ve yet to see a 1% gain OR loss. That’s pretty boring for a month known for volatility… However, boring is
- [Never Forget](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/never-forget/) - Key Points: 1- Of last week’s three declines, the SPX only closed on its lows once – on Tuesday. 2- Since last March, MACD buy signals haven’t nailed the lows, but they were very good at detecting momentum shifting from negative to positive. The last one went live on 8/29. 3- Something has to give
- [Week Ending 9/8/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-9-82023/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, UGA –Worst 20 ETFs: SIL, ROBO –Major Indices: NDX, IWC –Sectors: XLE, XLI –Style: VIX, IWN –Industries: IGE, XBI –Stocks: GOOGL, ZTO –Foreign Markets: TUR –Fixed Income: 10 Year Yield –Commodities: URA Uranium –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly
- [All Over the Place](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/all-over-the-place/) - Topics Reviewed: -SPX Performance -Patterns -Breadth -Sector Perf & Breadth -Best & Worst 20 ETFs -TAN Solar -Four Small Cap ETFs -Banks -EPOL, EWZ -FDN, XLC -JETS Performance The SPX fell for the fourth time in five days today but found a tepid bid that prevented greater damage. Of the four losses, the index only
- [Testing Key Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/testing-key-levels-2/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is flirting with its 20-Day MA, which is similar to its behavior soon after the March lows. 2- Reclaiming the 9/1 anchored VWAP line soon could encourage upside momentum, like what happened in June. 3- AAPL now is near three forms of support on its weekly chart after its
- [Familiar Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/familiar-start/) - Key Points: 1- We’ve seen weakness materialize in the early part of every month in 2023 – except for June. 2- Another common characteristic has been monthly higher lows. The SPX has made a higher low vs. the prior month 6/8 times through last month. March and August were the exceptions. 3- We haven’t seen
- [Hold](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hold-2/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – USO Crude Oil – XLE Energy – XLK Technology – KRE Regional Banks Performance The slight – yet consistent – afternoon rally helped prevent the SPX from logging a 1% loss on Wednesday. This
- [IWM, SPX and RSP](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/iwm-spx-and-rsp/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s 2% decline suddenly makes the last two weeks of action for IWM appear like the right shoulder of a potential three-month bearish H&S pattern. 2- The RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF dropped over 1.2% on Tuesday, and its pattern actually looks more like IWM than SPX. 3- The SPX’s market strength
- [Bad Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bad-breadth/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector Perf & Breadth – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – New Highs/Lows – XLP, XLU, XLV – US Dollar – XHB Homebuilders – XLE Energy Performance The SPX started the four-day week with a 42-bps decline, which was helped in a major way by
- [After the Snapback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-snapback/) - Key Points: 1- Despite the strong move from the 8/18 lows, it may still take some time for another foundation to form that’s enough to propel the market to new highs. See more below. 2- In the years in which the SPX had its most consistent uptrends, it had ZERO consecutive +2% weeks (2013, 2017
- [Week Ending 9/1/23 & August'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-9-1-23-august23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: MSOS, ARKK –Worst 20 ETFs: WEAT, SPLV –Major Indices: IWM, DJIA –Sectors: XLB, XLE –Style: AMLP, IWD –Industries: OIH, WFH –Stocks: LYB, AMCR –Foreign Markets: EWC, EWW –Fixed Income: 10 Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin
- [September](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/september/) - Key Points: 1- September has been the second-worst month for the SPX over the last 20 years, but the index’s average path shows a rally in the first two weeks. 2- The Dollar has topped in late August-early September on average, and Crude Oil has bottomed in September over the last two decades. 3- However,
- [Two Thirds of '23 Done](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-thirds-of-23-done/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – USO Crude Oil – SMH Semis – NDX – EWZ Brazil – XLU Utilities Performance The flat session to conclude August was an appropriate ending given the persistent sell-off to start the month, the mid-month reversal
- [Finishing Well](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/finishing-well/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s five-month winning streak most likely will be snapped, but the index is set to finish near its monthly highs for the sixth straight time. 2- Last year, the SPX topped on 8/16/22, right near the same price level (4,325) that it bounced at on 8/18/23 this year (4,335). 3- The
- [Four...](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/four/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – XOP – FDX – UUP US Dollar – IWM Small Caps – SLV Silver Performance The SPX scratched out its fourth straight advance on Wednesday, which takes the latest trough-to-peak move to +4.4%. The index now
- [Winning Streaks & Big 3-Day Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/winning-streaks-big-3-day-gains/) - Key Points: 1- After three day winning streaks in 2023, the SPX has been higher 20 days later 4/5 times, with an average move of +2.2% (not counting overlapping instances). See more below. 2- The SPX now has logged its seventh 3-day advance of at least 2.7% in 2023. Only one of these marked a
- [Three Straight](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/three-straight/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – IPO – XLB Materials – TLT Bonds – 2 bullish stocks – Bitcoin Performance The SPX logged its 3rd straight gain, its second 1% advance in four days, its biggest 3-day move since 4/27 – 5/1 and
- [Patterns & Indicators](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/patterns-indicators/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s most important task is breaking back above the big bearish pattern’s right shoulder. 2- Doing that soon would complete the latest short-term bullish pattern 3- The SPX and NDX are closing seeing MACD buy signals. Topics Covered: -Bearish pattern update -Outside negative days -Next bullish pattern -Bollinger Bands -MACD buy
- [A Winning Streak](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-winning-streak/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – XLE Energy – KRE Regional Banks – QUAL Quality Factor – MUB Muni Bonds – EWH Hong Kong Performance It’s only two-straight, but with the SPX having gone a month without two up days in a
- [Long-Term Momentum is Still Supportive](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/long-term-momentum-is-still-supportive/) - Key Points: 1- Longer-term, the SPX’s 14-week RSI stayed in the upper range during the upswing through 2021 and below the range in 2022… and back above it in 2023. The weekly RSI finished at 57 last week, which still is supportive of the current uptrend right now. 2- Two key characteristics in August have
- [Week Ending 8/25/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-8-25-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: GDX, HACK –Worst 20 ETFs: OIH, XRT –Major Indices: NDX, IWM –Sectors: XLK, XLE –Style: IWF, IWN –Industries: IGV, JETS –Stocks: GWW, NOC –Foreign Markets: VNM, EPHE –Fixed Income: ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds –Commodities: PPLT Platinum –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto:
- [Whipsawed](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/whipsawed/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX’s small bullish pattern was negated with yesterday’s big negative reversal. And with just five trading sessions left in August, we’ve yet to see two straight gains. 2- The SPX now has logged a 1% decline the day after a 1% gain for the first time since 3/16-3/17, which was three days
- [Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/reversal-2/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -SPX -NVDA -NVDA, XLK, XLI -SMH Semis -USD -10-Year Yield -Market Stats -Stock Screen https://player.vimeo.com/video/857695136?badge=0&
- [Progress](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/progress/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX completed the small bullish pattern yesterday and now has a short-term target near 4,505. 2- The NDX finished right at the converging 20 and 50-D Moving Averages… as its 14-D RSI closed right near the mid-point of its range. Staying above all of these after today’s apparent strong open now will
- [Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/follow-through/) - Topics Reviewed: – SPX Performance – Patterns – Breadth – Sector ETFs – Best & Worst 20 ETFs – NVDA – SMH – US Dollar – ZROZ -20-Day Lows Performance The back-and-forth movement continued on Wednesday, and this time, it was to the upside. For the second time in three days, Growth led, and the
- [Another Attempt](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-attempt/) - Key Points: 1-The SPX remains stuck on step one on the potential comeback path through Tuesday’s action. 2- From a very short-term standpoint, a potential bullish set up is visible via the 2-hour chart. 3– The % of S&P 500 stocks > 200 Day MAs remains above its June and March low points. Seeing a
- [No Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-follow-through/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- TLT Treasury Bonds 7- SIL Silver Miners 8- NTNX 9- KBWB Banks 10- TAN Solar 1-Performance Like last week, the market failed to leverage a Monday growth-led advance the following Tuesday. The SPX gapped
- [Step One](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/step-one/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is on step 1/7 in potentially regaining positive momentum. 2- The SPX is trying to reclaim a bid after a drawdown of at least -5% above a rising 200-Day MA. This happened five times from the Covid lows through 2021. 3- The SPX also is emerging from an oversold
- [A Positive Start… for Some](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-positive-start-for-some/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- IGV Software 7- XLRE Real Estate 8- BOTZ AI 9- NVDA, PWR 10- EWH Hong Kong 1-Performance Much like last Monday, Large Cap Growth led the way to a strong showing today. This time,
- [The Next Bounce](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-next-bounce/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its third straight weekly decline. The last longer weekly streak was four in a row, which concluded December’22. 2- Seeing a bid arrive in the low 4,300s would be a good starting point for various technical reasons. See below. 3– The US Dollar is up five straight
- [Week Ending 8/18/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-8-18-23/) - Topics Covered: -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH, XME –Worst 20 ETFs: BLOK, TAN –Major Indices: DJIA, IWC –Sectors: XLK, XLY –Style: VTI, FFTY –Industries: IGV, KRE –Stocks: F, MSI –Foreign Markets: EWW Mexico, EWA Australia –Fixed Income: ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds –Commodities: URA Uranium –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto:
- [Negative Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/negative-momentum/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX closing at its lowest level since June 26th, it breached the first real support level of 4,385. 2- The SPX has closed on its highs just FOUR days over the last four weeks. 3– SPX 4,300 has multiple forms of support. See below. Topics Covered: -SPX Bearish pattern -Potential
- [Pullback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pullback-2/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -SPX -10-Year Yield -USD -VIX -Market Stats & Breadth -New Highs vs. New Lows -ARKK -QQQ -XHB Homebuilders -IHF Healthcare Providers https://player.vimeo.com/video/855532080?badge=0&
- [Bearish Patterns & Oversold Stocks Near Support](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bearish-patterns-oversold-stocks-near-support/) - Key Points: 1- The good news: the continued sell off has pulled the SPX closer to real support zones near 4,385 and then 4,328. The bad news: the index still is following the blueprint for the much bigger topping pattern that we’ve been displaying every morning. 2- After yesterday, just four Sector ETFs are trading
- [Volatility, Sentiment and the SPX](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/volatility-sentiment-and-the-spx/) - Key Points: 1- Despite yesterday’s 1% decline, the number of +/-1% SPX daily moves still is small compared to 2022’s intense two-way volatility. 2- The CNN Business Fear and Greed Index dropped to the NEUTRAL zone yesterday for the first time since mid-May. 3– SPY closed below its 6/15 VWAP line on Tuesday. A failure
- [Back to Red](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/back-to-red/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- VIX 7- 10-Year Yield 8- KRE Regional Banks 9- XOP Oil & Gas Exploration 10- LIT Lithium 1-Performance The SPX failed to leverage yesterday’s good close and endured its second 1% decline of the
- [The First Step: Closing Better](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-first-step-closing-better/) - Key Points: 1- The recent combination of weak large cap growth and infrequent strong closes has equated to a downward trending market. 2- The SPX hit its smaller downside target on Friday, which was the first bearish objective that the index has acquired since February – March. 3– SPY still is below its 7/27 AVWAP,
- [Growth Gets a Bid](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/growth-gets-a-bid/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Tech 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- SMH Semis 7- IGV Software 8- BOTZ 9- GDX Gold Miners 10- IGF Infrastructure 1-Performance A day after hitting its small downside target near 4,450, the SPX mounted a positive reversal today and finished
- [What Buying the Dip Would Mean Now](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-buying-the-dip-would-mean-now/) - Key Points: 1- If rotation is going to continue, then the next real bid should appear in the lagging areas – namely large cap growth. 2- For the XLK Technology ETF, the 162-164 zone is the next level to monitor. Four different support lines appear there. 3– Seeing support hold is important, but it goes
- [Week Ending 8/11/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-8-11-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: XOP, XLV –Worst 20 ETFs: ARKK, SLV –Major Indices: DJIA, NDX –Sectors: XLE, XLK –Style: VIX –Industries: PJP, SMH –Stocks: ZTS, EPAM –Foreign Markets: TUR, EWH –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly Performance
- [Measuring the Drawdown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/measuring-the-drawdown/) - Key Points: 1- A key early theme for August has been a lack of buy interest, and that is best represented by the consistent closes near the lows. 2- The current pullback has lasted longer than the other temporary respites since March. The last four have totaled four days and three days (on three separate
- [Another Close on the Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-close-on-the-lows/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ARKK 7- IWC Micro Caps 8- PHM Pulte 9- XME Metals & Mining 10- PPLT Platinum 1-Performance The SPX scratched out a tiny gain on Thursday, but it closed near its intra-day lows for
- [Pattern Battle](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pattern-battle/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has been higher two weeks after a CPI report for three straight months, starting in May. 2- With the index just 3.2% below the 7/27 high, this is not too different than the other innocuous pullbacks we’ve seen since the March lows. 3– As the SPX extended through the end
- [Topping Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/topping-patterns/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX finished below the breakdown zone near 4,530 yesterday, thus, it triggered a three-week bearish head/shoulders pattern. 2- Going back 25 years, AAPL now has broken out to new highs from long consolidation periods eight times. Of the prior seven, the preceding breakout zones were undercut FIVE times. 3– The
- [Downside Follow Through](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/downside-follow-through-2/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Con Discr 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ARKK 7- SMH Semis 8- MSFT 9- KRE Regional Banks 10- KIE Insurance 1-Performance While most of the damage was done by late morning, the SPX failed to mount a true bounce
- [Weakness Under the Surface](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weakness-under-the-surface/) - Key Points: 1- Breadth on the index level was poor in the 30-40% range yesterday, but it wasn’t extreme. Our ETF list presented a much grimmer picture, with over 90% ETFs down. 2- We’ve shown the potential path for both bullish and bearish patterns to develop from here. Given the consistent bid over the last
- [Slow August Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/slow-august-start/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- TLT Bonds 7- US Dollar 8- VIX 9- TSLA 10- HACK Cyber Security 1-Performance The SPX dropped marginally on the month’s first day, which broke the modest two-day winning streak. It was a
- [Weekly Moves, Breadth & Bonds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-moves-breadth-bonds/) - Key Points: 1- As of now, the SPX is set to notch its second weekly decline in the last three weeks – over which time it is +2.6%. 2- The SPX has been able to move higher on strong breadth (June) and questionable breadth (May). So far in July, the market internals have been less
- [Growth Cracks; the Field Holds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/growth-cracks-the-field-holds/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Sector Performance -Market Maps Intra Day vs. YTD -Market Stats & Breadth -ARKK -SMH Semis -GDX Gold Miners -DJIA (3) -IHI Medical Devices -ITA Aerospace & Defense -SPX (2)
- [July'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/july23/) - Topics Covered: -August after a +3% July -August last 20 years -August & September -Seasonality: Volatility and US Dollar -Five-month winning streaks -Great starts through year end -Monthly Breadth -July ETF Highlights -Full July Perf Breakdown August after a Strong July As we’ve all heard by now, the SPX logged a strong July… again.
- [Finishing Strong… Again](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/finishing-strong-again/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into July’s last day up nearly 3% for the month, which will be the fifth straight monthly advance and the eighth gain in the last 10 months. 2- The SPX started both June and July with live bullish patterns and achieved TWO upside targets during both months. As July
- [Week Ending 7/28/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-7-28-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: TUR, EZA –Worst 20 ETFs: TAN, IHF –Major Indices: NDX, MDY –Sectors: XLC, XLU –Style: IWN, VIX –Industries: ARKK, XBI –Stocks: CVX, IFF –Foreign Markets: EEM, GREK –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Crude Oil –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Bitcoin Weekly
- [After the Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-the-reversal/) - Key Points: 1- It doesn’t have to be immediate, but for yesterday to mark a true turning point, we’ll need to see some sort of downside extension soon. 2- For example, after the monstrous +5% positive reversal on Thursday, October 13th, the SPX fell -2.6% the very next day. It then logged 1% gains in
- [New Highs & Negative Reversals](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-highs-negative-reversals/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: -Intra-Day Performance -SPX intra-day -SPX negative reversal -SPX bullish pattern target hit -SPX potential bearish pattern -Market Stats & Breadth -New Highs vs. New Lows -XLF Financials -XLC Comm Services -ARKK -JETS -US Dollar -10-Year Yield
- [Next SPX Target in the Crosshairs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/next-spx-target-in-the-crosshairs/) - Key Points: 1- If this morning’s early strength holds, the SPX will have hit its latest upside target of 4,590. That would make it four successful bullish pattern targets hit in a row. 2- With three trading days left in July, there still have been zero +/-1% moves for the SPX. 3– The Japan Nikkei
- [Unchanged on Fed Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/unchanged-on-fed-day/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- KRE Regional Banks 7- US Dollar 8- GLD Gold 9- EWW Mexico 10- FXI China 1-Performance Despite the expected rate hike, the market held in there. Again, we care more about the
- [Fed Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fed-day/) - Key Points: 1- From a market standpoint, there are a few reasons that support today’s would-be rate hike. First, the 10-Year Yield is higher since they paused on 6/14/23. 2- The SPX starts today overbought from an RSI perspective. Ironically, the last two times the indicator was above 70 happened around Fed Days, too –
- [Inching Higher](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/inching-higher/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLB Materials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- XLK Tech 7- SIL Silver Miners 8- BOTZ AI 9- JETS 10- GOOGL 1-Performance The SPX finished off its highs on Tuesday, but the 28-bps gain was good enough for the ninth advance
- [Uptrends](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/uptrends/) - Key Points: 1- With five trading days left in July, the SPX has yet to log a 1% move. The last 1% decline happened on May 23rd. The last 1% gain happened on June 30th. 2- In four prior occasions since 2012, there were long periods when the SPX logged very few 1% moves. Those
- [Energy & Financials](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/energy-financials/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- OIH Oil Services 7- CTRA Coterra Energy 8- XLF Financials 9- KRE & KBWB 10- TFC Truist Financial 1-Performance The SPX continued its quiet, yet buoyant, July on Monday by gaining 40 bps
- [Another BIG Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-big-week/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off its second straight weekly advance and now has been higher in 8/10 and 13/19 weeks. 2- On the log-scale, the SPX remains within the confines of the 10-month upward sloping channel. 3– A screen we use for our 170 ETFs produced 34 bullish patterns and ZERO bearish
- [The Response](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-response/) - Key Points: 1- Eight S&P sectors had positive internals yesterday, with the top five flashing adv-dec ratios of at least +70%. 2- That helped the SPX’s adv-dec line make a fresh all-time high. 3- If there ever was a sign of rotation, this was it, but it will be VERY difficult for investors to turn
- [+20% from the March Lows](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/20-from-the-march-lows/) - Key Points: 1- Traditional overbought readings haven’t played out as well as they did in 2022 – or even through the first quarter of this year. 2- The SPX now is +20% since the March lows – that’s a little over four months. While this kind of move isn’t sustainable, it’s DOUBLE the length of
- [Quiet, but Another Up Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/quiet-but-another-up-day/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- KBWB Banks 7- US Dollar 8- SMH Semis 9- WFH Work from Home 10- SOYB Soybeans 1-Performance The SPX inched closer to it NEXT upside target on Wednesday – at least early
- [Latest Target Hit](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/latest-target-hit/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX hit the 4,540-target yesterday, which took about eight weeks since the 5/26 breakout. The prior target was achieved in about the same length of time. 2- After yesterday, just about every indicator out there now is stretched and suggestive of buying exhaustion, including the Bollinger Bands. We’ve seen this before
- [Sentiment & How a Top Could Play Out](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/sentiment-how-a-top-could-play-out/) - Key Points: 1- Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader recently noted that investors now favor stocks over bonds by a historically wide margin. See what this means below. 2- For a potential big downturn to happen, we’ll need to see bearish set-ups begin to work first.. 3- A mean-reverting move from a short-term overbought state can materialize
- [More Bullish Patterns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/more-bullish-patterns/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- KRE Regional Banks 7- XBI Biotech 8- IWO Small Cap Growth 9- DIA DJIA 10- LIT Lithium 1-Performance The SPX inched closer to the near-two-month breakout target today, getting to within seven handles
- [Weekly Moves: 2023 vs. 2022](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weekly-moves-2023-vs-2022/) - Key Points: 1- In 2022, there were 19 weekly absolute moves of at least +/-3% (9 up, 10 down). In 2023, there have been two (one up, one down – both in March). 2- Last week, over 80% of the S&P 500’s stocks advanced, and 82 of them were up at least 5%. However, none
- [Week Ending 7/14/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-7-14-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Market Map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum, GDX –Worst 20 ETFs: MSOS, UNG –Major Indices: IWM, NDX –Sectors: XLY, XLB –Style: RSP, IWD –Industries: ARKK, PIO Water –Stocks: EBAY, SEE –Foreign Markets: EPU Peru, FXI China –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield (& US Dollar, SPX) –Commodities: SLV
- [Breakouts, Small Index Moves & New Highs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-small-index-moves-new-highs/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has proven it can hold breakouts over the last few weeks and months; we have to respect this kind of behavior until it changes. 2- One such change would be the sudden revival of big daily moves. With the first half of July nearly complete, there have been ZERO 1%
- [The Crashing Dollar](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-crashing-dollar/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: US Dollar (6) SPX (3) Bitcoin (3) Market Stats & Breadth (3) XLC SOCL NVDA DAL
- [SPX & US Dollar](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-us-dollar/) - Key Points: 1- By holding above yesterday’s opening gap, the SPX completed the latest bullish formation – this cup & handle pattern. The upside target is 4,590. 2- Since the March lows, the advance has become steadier, which has allowed breakouts to see immediate upside follow through more often than not for the SPX and
- [More Green Post CPI](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/more-green-post-cpi/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- US Dollar 7- IWM R2k 8- GDX Gold Miners & SIL Silver Miners 9- SOCL Social Media 10- TLT 1-Performance With the initial strong response to CPI, it appeared that the SPX
- [CPI, MACD and Chart Set-Ups](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/cpi-macd-and-chart-set-ups/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX is coming off two straight months of net-positive two-week price action post CPI, which last happened in Oct-November’22. 2- From the start of 2022 through February’23, the MACD indicator worked well in nailing trading tops in the SPX. Since then, there have been FOUR MACD sell signals (including the current
- [The Equal Weight S&P Sector ETFs](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-equal-weight-sp-sector-etfs/) - Key Points: 1- A better way to view yesterday’s action is through the lens of the S&P’s equal weight sector ETFs. Not surprisingly, the performance figures aligned with the internal numbers. 2- The equal weight Sector ETFs are not extended on the weekly charts, and RSPN Industrials is the only one at (or close to)
- [Strong Participation… Despite Big Missing Pieces](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/strong-participation-despite-big-missing-pieces/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- NDXE 7- ARKK 8- XBI Biotech 9- XLF Financials 10- UNG Natural Gas 1-Performance The SPX was up only 24 bps today in one of the oddest days for internals we’ve seen in a
- [It Gets Interesting Now](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/it-gets-interesting-now/) - Key Points: 1- The “dip” currently doesn’t appear too different than other pauses over the last four months. 2- One sign of this changing would be seeing a bearish pattern finally play out. See the latest potential set up below. 3- The SPY S&P 500 ETF starts the week between two key short-term AVWAP lines:
- [Week Ending 7/7/2023](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-7-7-2023/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: OIH, USO –Worst 20 ETFs: URA, EWQ France –Major Indices: DIA, IWM –Sectors: XLRE, XLV –Style: IWS, FFTY –Industries: JETS, XHB –Stocks: HAS, DHR –Foreign Markets: ECH Chile, EWS Germany –Fixed Income: ZROZ Zero Coupon, 10-Year Yield –Commodities: GLD Gold, PPLT Platinum –Currencies:
- [SPX, Germany, Japan & Bitcoin](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-germany-japan-bitcoin/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off two days of small price movement, it has the chance to form another bull flag pattern. Read below about why this latest formation does NOT need to work. 2- The German DAX and Nikkei 225 both have formed short-term topping formations. 3- BTC has two upside objectives
- [SPX Holds, but Breadth Worsens](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-holds-but-breadth-worsens/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- 10-Year Yield 7- KIE Insurance 8- KRE Regional Banks 9- FEZ EURO STOXX 50 10- GDX Gold Miners 1-Performance The holiday week feel took a hit today with most stocks declining on continued higher
- [Holding… on Light Participation](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/holding-on-light-participation/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLRE Real Estate 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- PBW Clean Energy 7- ROBO 8- USMV Min Vol Factor ETF 9- TMHC 10- URA Uranium 1-Performance Despite negative breadth and more hawkish commentary via the FOMC minutes, the SPX held things together
- [Drawdown Scenarios](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/drawdown-scenarios/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s comeback to conclude June keeps alive the potential for another continuation pattern to play out. But at some point, the simple “breakout, consolidate” scenario will change. 2- For one, the pace of the advance has accelerated over the last few months – and especially recently – which is clearly displayed
- [June & Q2'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/june-q223/) - Topics Covered: 1- July SPX After +10% First Six months 2- Rest of Year after Strong First Six months 3- Quarterly Win Streaks 4- Monthly Breadth 5– 20 Best June: PBW, UNG 6- 20 Worst June: TUR, VIX 7- Major Indices: DIA, MDY 8– Sectors: XLB, XLV 9- Style: PKW Buybacks, PFF Preferreds 10– Industries:
- [Halftime](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/halftime/) - Key Points: 1- The market’s strong first half has been a continuation of the uptrend across various time frames. 2- Quarterly win streaks tend to be much longer than quarterly losing streaks. 3- We review the four most important factors that have changed in recent months. Topics Covered: -Quarterly winning and losing streaks -The four
- [Baton Passed Back to Value](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/baton-passed-back-to-value/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: GDX, PALL 6- XLB Materials 7- SOCL Social Media 8- KIE Insurance 9- UNG Natural Gas 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance The SPX utilized a consistent bid in the day’s final two hours to log its second
- [Indicator Check-Up](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/indicator-check-up/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has routinely hit the upper band of the daily Bollinger Bands in 2023. It literally did this just a handful of times through October in 2022, showing that momentum has completely flipped. 2- The SPX’s 50-Day MA of the 14-Day RSI is close to puncturing 60 for the first time
- [Pause](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pause/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ARKK 7- XBI Biotech 8- IWO Small Cap Growth 9- XME Metals & Mining 10- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 1-Performance A day after the first 1% gain in two weeks, the market took a
- ["Who Cares? It's Going Up"](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/who-cares-its-going-up/) - Key Points: 1- In a Twitter poll I ran yesterday, 70% of the respondents were bullish; 30% were bearish. 2- Yesterday, the SPX logged its fourth 1% gain of June; we’ve yet to see a 1% decline this month. The last time we went a whole calendar month without a 1% loss was April’21 –
- [Growth's Turn](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/growths-turn/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- IGV Software 7- INTU 8- KRE Regional Banks 9- New Highs 10- DBC Commodities 1-Performance The market maps from the last two days fully explain what has happened so far this week –
- [SPX, NASDAQ, High Yield Bonds & Bitcoin](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-nasdaq-high-yield-bonds-bitcoin/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has stayed above the 50-Day MA late March, easily the longest streak above the line since 2021. 2- The SPX has separated itself from the HYG High Yield Bonds ETF in 2023, which has become even more evident since the March lows. See more below. 3- By hanging close
- [Growth Falters; the Field Holds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/growth-falters-the-field-holds/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- XBI Biotech 7- XLK Technology 8- META 9- SOCL Social Media 10- SIL Silver Miners 1-Performance The SPX finished lower for the fifth time in six days on Monday and closed near its intra-day
- [Trends Trend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/trends-trend/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into the last week of the year’s second quarter +4% for June, +5.8% for the quarter and +13.3% YTD and could log its third straight +5% quarter. 2- The key now is understanding the vital changes that have taken place to get us here and what needs to happen
- [Week Ending 6/23/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-6-23-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Chart -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: Ethereum –Worst 20 ETFs: PBW Clean Energy –Major Indices: DJIA –Sectors: XLRE Real Estate –Style: IWN Small Cap Value –Industries: XHB Homebuilders –Stocks: IDXX, INTU, CMA, EPAM –Foreign Markets: VNM Vietnam, VEU World ex-US –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: URA Uranium –Currencies: US
- [The Real Trend](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-real-trend/) - Key Points: 1- The recent pause has taken place after one of the SPX’s biggest weekly advances we’ve seen over the last nine months. This equates to constructive digestion. 2- The SPX’s advance since the March lows has been a series of sideways movement followed by a handful of mini breakouts… followed by more sideways
- [Losing Streak Over Thanks to…](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/losing-streak-over-thanks-to/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Discr 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- AMZN vs. SPX 7- IHI Medical Devices 8- GDX Gold Miners 9- KRE Regional Banks 10- IBN 1-Performance The SPX gained 37 bps today and AMZN, MSFT and AAPL accounted for exactly 37
- [One for the Ages](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/one-for-the-ages/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: Semis: NVDA MU SMH SPX: 100-Day Study Chart Patterns Internals Major Indices Sector Performance & Breadth Sector Focus XLP Consumer Staples XLP Study ETFs Leaders & Laggards New Highs/Lows US Dollar
- [More Digestion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/more-digestion/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- US Dollar 7- XLP Consumer Staples 8- PEP Pepsico 9- EWW Mexico 10- MUB Muni Bonds 1-Performance The SPX avoided its second straight 1% decline today, which only has happened once this year so
- [Market Update](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/market-update/) - Observations: ETFs The big gainers have outnumbered big decliners by a large margin all day. ETF New Highs/Lows Lopsided as well, with 44 making new 20-Day Highs vs. just 1 making a new low (CYB Chinese Yuan) Market Internals It’s a complete reversal vs. yesterday, with Small Caps logging strong rebounds. IWM
- [How Long Can the Perfect Rotation Last?](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/how-long-can-the-perfect-rotation-last/) - Key Points: 1- The RSP Equal Weight S&P 500 ETF (+0.74%) outperformed the SPX (-0.38%) by 1.12% yesterday. The last time RSP outperformed the SPX by at least 1.1% when RSP was UP and the SPX was DOWN (like yesterday) was 3/8/21. RSP and SPX ended the year with similar YTD gains in 2021.
- [Reversals](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/reversals-2/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: OIH, IGV 6- June vs. May: PBW 7- IWN Small Cap Value 8- OIH Oil Services 9- XBI Biotech 10- EWA Australia 1-Performance The divergent internal price action was the dominant theme again today, but
- [The Risk of Strong Internals](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-risk-of-strong-internals/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday, the RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF made a new 20-Day High, and the SPX did not. 2- At the same time, the CNN Business Fear & Greed Index hit the Extreme Greed threshold for the first time since early February. 3- With the SPX’s biggest drawdown being just 3.4% since the
- [What Hitting the Latest Pattern Target Means](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-hitting-the-latest-pattern-target-means/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into Tuesday after achieving its latest upside pattern target near 4,300. It’s now the first time we’ve seen TWO bullish targets acquired since 2021. 2- Just as important, so far in 2023, there’s been just one bearish pattern downside target hit in the SPX. 3- Of the 39 +/-1%
- [Bad Close after SPX Hits Target](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bad-close-after-spx-hits-target/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comms Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- AAPL 7- BOTZ AI 8- IGV Software 9- KRE Regional Banks 10- IHF HC Providers 1-Performance The SPX got (close enough) to 4,300 and hit its price target on Monday, which has been
- [Week Ending 6/2/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-6-2-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -SPX Weekly Winning Streaks -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: OIH Oil Services –Worst 20 ETFs: SMH Semis vs. SPX –Major Indices: IWM R2k –Sectors: XLP Con Staples –Style: VT Total Stock Market –Industries: ARKK –Stocks: BA, J –Foreign Markets: VNM Vietnam –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: Gold –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto:
- [Two Straight 1% Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-straight-1-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI ticked to 69 in early February; it finished at 66 on Friday. More on this below. 2- The SPX is +12.4% since the March low – nearly three months ago. In February, the index got to +11.4% from its mid-December lows – about six weeks. 3- The SPX’s
- [Screening for Breakouts](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/screening-for-breakouts/) - Key Points: 1-A recent stock/ETF bullish screen we ran kicked out 56 ETFs. The most interesting part is that 15 of these were specifically related to the S&P 500. 2- Among those, three are Value-oriented: IUSV, IVE and SPYV. The most liquid of these is the SPYV SPD S&P 500 Value ETF, which we look
- [Solid Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/solid-start/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ARKK 7- OIH Oil Services 8- SKYY Cloud 9- FISV Fiserv 10- HAS Hasbro 1-Performance The SPX wasted no time logging its first 1% gain of June, enduring a late-day sell-off and closing
- [May'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/may23/) - Topics Covered: 1- Monthly Track 2- June Seasonality 3- May = 2023 4- Monthly Breadth 5- 20 Best: XBI Biotech 6- 20 Worst: XME Metals 7- Major Indices: NDX vs. DJIA 8– Sectors: XLK, XLE 9- Style: IWF Lrg Cap Growth, IWS Sml Cap Value 10– Industries: SMH, KRE 11- Stocks: NVDA, META, CTLT, VFC
- [No Change…](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/no-change/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- SKYY Cloud 7- KWEB China Internet 8- ELV Elevance 9- IPO ETF 10- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 1-Performance The SPX logged its third straight gain on Tuesday (if we use thousandths instead of hundredths,
- [A Closer Look at XLK Technology](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-closer-look-at-xlk-technology/) - Key Points: 1- XLK saw its 14-Day RSI hit 76 early yesterday. That was the highest mark since November’21 when it topped out at 79. 2- Each of XLK’s upside targets have been hit, including the last one, which saw a breakout as May began. 3- Yesterday’s opening gap – coming after last Friday’s huge move –
- [Overbought vs. Oversold](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/overbought-vs-oversold/) - Key Points: 1- Last Friday’s +1.3% gain triggered the SPX’s bigger bullish pattern for the second time in the last two weeks. Target 4,540. 2- However, the index still is not moving that much on a net basis. It has logged seven weeks less than -/+1% in the last eight. 3- Currently, twenty S&P 500 stocks
- [Week Ending 5/26/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-5-26-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis –Worst 20 ETFs: GDX Gold Miners –Major Indices: NDX Winning Streaks –Sectors: XLC Comm Services –Style: SPLV Low Volatility –Industries: WFH Work from Home –Stocks: BRK/B, RVTY –Foreign Markets: EWY South Korea –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: CORN –Currencies: US Dollar
- [Not Historically Extreme](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/not-historically-extreme/) - Key Points: 1- The NDX/Willshire 5k Index is stretched on the daily chart, as the 14-Day RSI is near 85. 2- However, the long-term view shows how much different the Internet Bubble was compared to now for the NDX/W5k ratio. 3- The CNN Business Fear & Greed index is in the Fear Zone. It utilizes seven indicators.
- [When Breakouts Work](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/when-breakouts-work/) - Key Points: 1- NVDA was among one of the first stocks to break out of a multi-month base back in January. Many other stocks and ETFs have been forming similar bottoming patterns this year. We look at a few of them below. 2- The SPX, itself, remains in striking distance of a fresh breakout. The first
- [Taking a Punch](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/taking-a-punch/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s latest breakouts no longer are live; the pattern breakout from 3/31 remains in play, with the index starting today 2.2% above the 4,055 zone. 2- The SPX’s biggest drawdown since the March lows has been just -3.4%, which is abnormally small. The odds suggest that a larger one materializes at some
- [Pullback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pullback/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: EWQ & EWD 6- US Dollar 7- XOM 8- KWEB Internet China 9- KRE Regional Banks 10- Bond ETFs 1-Performance The SPX logged its second 1% decline of May and the first since 5/2, as
- [SPX Focus](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-focus/) - Key Points: 1- One of the most important things the SPX has done in Q2 is hold above the 3/31 breakout point. The 4,050 zone was tested twice and held twice. 2- The SPX’s ability to stay clear of its 50-Day MA has been a notable change lately. The last three rallies all faded, and the
- [Important Action Beyond the SPX](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/important-action-beyond-the-spx/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Consumer Staples 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ARKK 7- XBI Biotech 8- XOP Oil & Gas Exploration 9- GOOGL 10- IPO ETF 1-Performance The SPX consolidated for the second straight day to start the week. And while the last two
- [Market Internals](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/market-internals/) - Key Points: 1- While leadership has been top-heavy recently, the SPX’s cumulative adv-dec line has been coming along for the ride over the last eight months. 2- The % of NDX stocks above the 200-D has been oscillating between 50-70% since mid-January, while the % of stocks above the 50-D has been making lower highs since
- [Week Ending 5/19/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-5-19-23/) - Topics Covered: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: SMH Semis –Worst 20 ETFs: XLU Utilities –Major Indices: NDX –Sectors: XLK vs. 10 Year Notes –Style: IWF Large Cap Growth –Industries: KRE Regional Banks –Stocks: GRMN, GPN –Foreign Markets: EWT Taiwan –Fixed Income: ZROZ Zero Coupon –Commodities: UNG Natural Gas –Currencies: US
- [After Four Straight Declines](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-four-straight-declines/) - Key Points: 1- While the SPX’s pattern work has been quiet lately, potential bullish AND bearish formations can’t continue simultaneously for much longer. 2- The SPX is coming off its fourth straight loss, which last happened in February. The last five-day streak occurred in December. See below for stats. 3– The CNN Money Fear & Greed index has
- [The Market is Always Right](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-market-is-always-right/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday, Growth stocks ripped higher on a day that both interest rates and the dollar went up. See more below. 2- The SPX completed the bigger bullish formation yesterday, and a continued hold above 4,175 would target the 4,540 zone. 3– 27 S&P 500 stocks made new 52-week highs yesterday, but another 86 are
- [New 52-Wk Highs… For Tech](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-52-wk-highs-for-tech/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- New 52-Week highs: IOO Global 100 7- US Dollar 8- Metals 9- Bitcoin 10- Foreign ETFs 1-Performance The SPX’s final two hours turned a flat showing into nearly its second straight 1% gain.
- [Bullish Patterns & Overbought Readings](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/bullish-patterns-overbought-readings/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX coming off its second 1% gain of May, it’s getting close to triggering the bigger bullish formation. 2- Some popular indicators have gotten more stretched. In particular, a Demark Sell Exhaustion (13) signal for the NDX has been making the rounds… see more below. 3– The Nikkei 225 just logged its
- [Pinball Action Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pinball-action-continues/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC, XLK, XLY 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: OIH, GDX 6- GOOGL 7- KRE Regional Banks 8- ARKK 9- FEZ Euro Stoxx 50 10- SGG Sugar 1-Performance The SPX notched its first 1% gain since 5/5 today, bouncing back from yesterday’s terrible
- [NDX Focus](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/ndx-focus/) - Key Points: 1- YTD, the NDX is +23% vs. the NDXE’s +10% gain, thanks in large part to the rebound from the March lows. 2- The weekly NDX/NDXE relative chart is overbought… However, going back to 2007, the initial overbought reading for the NDX/NDXE ratio only has nailed a major top ONCE– in late 2021.
- [A Lot of Red](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-lot-of-red/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: WFH & XBI 6- OIH Oil Services 7- GDX Gold Miners 8- NDX 9- DVY Dividends 10- XRT Retail 1-Performance The SPX again avoided a big down day on Tuesday but seeing how it reacted
- [Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2021](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/q2-2023-vs-q2-2021/) - Key Points: 1- From January’22 through March’23, the SPX’s LEAST amount of monthly +/-1% moves were EIGHT last August. The SPX just had 11 this past March, which was the most since last October. In April, we had three. In May, there have been just two. 2- Volume has fallen off a cliff the last six
- [Good Closes Continue](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/good-closes-continue/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- MU Micron 7- XBI Biotech 8- KRE Regional Banks 9- IPO 10- VEU World-Ex US 1-Performance While the SPX is coming off its sixth straight weekly move < 1%, it’s closed near its highs
- [Week Ending 5/12/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-5-12-23/) - Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly Performance -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth –Best 20 ETFs: TUR Turkey –Worst 20 ETFs: GDX Gold Miners –Major Indices: MDY Mid-Caps –Sectors: XLE Energy –Style: DVY Dividends –Industries: IGV Software –Stocks: GOOGL, DAL –Foreign Markets: EWZ Brazil –Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield –Commodities: DBC Commodities ETF –Currencies: US Dollar –Crypto: Ethereum
- [The Q2 Trading Range](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-q2-trading-range/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX is -0.14% for the week, the index could log its sixth straight absolute weekly move less than 1%. 2- Through last night’s close the SPX is +0.52% for Q2 – at nearly the halfway point. That puts at #62 within the 175 ETF list we track. 13 ETFs are up at
- [Stuck... for Now](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/stuck-for-now/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Sector Performance & Breadth SPX & RSP – two perspectives SPY AVWAP Leaders & Laggards Daily Weekly YTD Charts XLC Comm Services – Long & Short-term ESPO Video Game – Long & Short-term OIH Oil Services – Long & Short-term SMH Semis UUP US Dollar & SLV
- [Technology Focus](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/technology-focus/) - Key Points: 1-Yesterday, XLK Technology made a new 52-week high and marginally broke out from a multi-week bullish pattern for the third time this year. 2-Just three of the 65 holdings made new highs along with XLK yesterday (MSFT, ORCL & CRM). 3- XLK’s top 20 names make up 85% of the ETF. The average
- [Afternoon Update](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/afternoon-update/) - SPX Brief Comments The back-and-forth movement continues, with the SPX and many ETFs are off their lows, but still below their opening highs. The index is trying to avoid its sixth decline in the last eight days, and the sixth close near the lows, as well. Sector ETFs – Intra-Day Charts –XLY made a new
- [Testing Key Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/testing-key-levels/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has altered gains and losses two weeks post the CPI report the last six times, starting with the release from last November. It dropped two weeks after the last report before bouncing back. 2- This is the first time that the SPX has been net-flat since a prior month’s report over the
- [Still Calm…](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/still-calm/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs – KWEB, JO 6- SMH Semis 7- IPO 8- GLD Gold & SLV Silver 9- EWJ Japan 10- SOCL Social Media 1-Performance While it was another small move, the 46-basis point loss officially was the SPX’s fifth
- [Mixed Market Messages](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/mixed-market-messages/) - Key Points: 1- Which better describes the market? That we saw two HUGE daily moves during last week’s five days or that the SPX logged its fifth straight WEEKLY move less than 100 absolute basis points. See below. 2- The SPX & RSP ETF were aligned through early February, but the ensuing downturn and subsequent rebound
- [Slow Monday](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/slow-monday/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- ESPO Sports Betting 7- KRE Regional Banks 8- TUR Turkey 9- URA Uranium 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance From an index viewpoint, there’s not much to say: 2-Patterns The SPX’s bullish pattern, thus, continues
- [5 Straight Small Weekly Moves](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/postscript-morning-trends-5-straight-small-weekly-moves/) - Topics Covered: PostScript: -Weekly market map -Weekly Breadth -Best 20 ETFs: MSOS Cannabis -Worst 20 ETFs: TUR Turkey -Major Indices: NDX -Sectors: XLK Technology -Style: IWF Large Cap Growth -Industries: XBI Biotech -Foreign Markets: EWJ Japan -Fixed Income: 10-Year Yield -Commodities: Crude Oil -Currencies US Dollar -Crypto: Bitcoin Morning Trends -Daily +/-1% Table
- [Looking for Momentum](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/looking-for-momentum/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s recent comeback has formed the next potential bullish formation. A close above last week’s high would complete this pattern. See below. 2- SPX’s 14-Day RSI: The combination of breaking a downtrend line in the RSI and the indicator then pushing above 50 has led to additional upside four prior times
- [Breakouts & Breakdowns](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/breakouts-breakdowns/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: SPX: Short-term indicators Potential Bearish Pattern Daily momentum Bullish Patterns SPY AVWAP Bullish Patterns: GLD, GDX SLV, SIL Gold Monthly Silver Monthly XBI (2 charts) Bearish Patterns: IAI Brokers XRT Retail KRE Regional Banks Mean-Reverting Potential UGA Natural Gas BOAT Global Shipping
- [Chart Rundown](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/chart-rundown-3/) - Key Points: 1- This is the SPX’s fourth losing streak of at least three in 2023. The difference this time is that the current sell-off has commenced after the index just made a new short-term high. 2- Coming into its earnings release this evening, AAPL is +37% from trough to peak from the recent lows, which now
- [The Most Anticipated…](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-most-anticipated/) - Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield has moved sideways for nearly eight weeks now, which is the flattest behavior over a two-month period in quite some time. 2- The 10-Year Yield has led the Fed Funds rate at major turning points in recent years. The 10-Year topped last fall. The Fed Funds rate has not topped yet…
- [Elevator Down, Escalator Up](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/elevator-down-escalator-up/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: GDX, ARKK 6- IWC Micro Caps 7- KBWB Banks 8- OIH Oil Services 9- SIL Silver Miners 10- TAN Solar 1-Performance While the headline’s phrase typically appears in reverse order, it adequately describes today’s action.
- [Momentum, Sentiment & Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/momentum-sentiment-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s two-hour RSI chart has done well at depicting short-term extremes in recent months. It’s almost back to overbought territory now. 2- The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone (58), but it’s actually lower than the recent high from 4/18 (68) even though the SPX just made a new
- [Slow Start](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/slow-start-2/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Consumer Disc 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: PBJ, KRE 6- SMH Semis 7- BETZ Sports Betting 8- XBI Biotech 9- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance The SPX’s modest winning streak came to an end on Monday, and even though
- [The May Setup](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-may-setup/) - Key Points: 1- In the 13 years in which the SPX logged 1% gains in both March & April since 1970, the index It was higher the following May just 7/13 times… but it was UP YTD 100% of the time. 2- A new THREE-MONTH bullish formation is close to being triggered. We’ve seen breakouts from
- [April'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/april23/) - Topics Covered: 1- Monthly Track 2- May Seasonality 3- Performance After 1% March & Aprils 4- Monthly Breadth 5- 20 Best: April 6- 20 Worst: April 7- Major Indices: DIA, IWC 8– Sectors: XLP, XLF 9- Style: SPLV, IWN Small Cap Value 10– Industries: XBI, ARKK 11- Stocks: UHS, TAP, TRMB, KDP 12- Global Mkts:
- [Mostly Red](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/mostly-red/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: LIT, PBW 6- Consumer Discretionary 7- QQQ vs. QQQJ 8- META, XLC, SPX 9- PALL Palladium 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance While the SPX avoided another big decline today, MSFT’s big up-move didn’t reverberate enough to help
- [Post-Shock](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/post-shock/) - Key Points: 1- Seeing the SPX’s latest breakout attempt being potentially wasted would be discouraging, but it’s more critical to maintain higher lows. The index has some space from this perspective. 2- Additional weakness would pull the index back below its 50-Day MA. We’ve seen this before. See below. 3– MSFT’s huge potential base is clear, making the
- [Shake Up](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/shake-up/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP, XLU, XLK 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs (KRE, OIH, XRT, WFH) 6- TLT 20+ Year Treasury 7- SMH Semis 8- ARKK 9- GDX Gold Miners 10- EWL Switzerland 1-Performance The SPX’s streak without a 1% decline ended at 22 today, which
- [Weighing the Evidence](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/weighing-the-evidence/) - Key Points: We expand on each of these below: Bearish 1- Sentiment remains stretched 2- Breadth: fewer Stocks > 50 and 200-Day MAs now vs. Feb 3- SPX testing tight upward sloping channel again 4- VIX is depressed over last five weeks Bullish 1- The SPX’s 14-Day RSI has stayed between 50 and
- [SPX Still Sleeping](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-still-sleeping/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs 6- HYG 7- SMH 8- KWEB 9- XBI Biotech 10- EWW Mexico 1-Performance The good news is that the SPX closed near its highs again, stayed within striking distance of its recent high point and
- [Last Week’s Small Move Wasn't Meaningless](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/last-weeks-small-move-wasnt-meaningless/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into April’s final week up 59 bps for the month and having just logged its second weekly -10 bps decline of April – which came courtesy of three daily moves of 10 bps or less over the last five days. 2- The three daily moves of 10 bps in
- [Week Ending 4/21/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-4-21-23/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX: -10bps Weeks 2- Breadth 3- Best 20 ETFs 4- Worst 20 ETFs 5- Major Indices 6- Sectors 7- Style 8- Industries 9- Individual Stocks – Buy, Short 10- Global Markets 11- Fixed Income 12- Commodities 13- Currencies 14- Crypto Weekly Performance SPX This speaks volumes about last week: “The S&P
- [Pausing… for Now](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/pausing-for-now/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has been confined to an upward sloping channel since the March lows. It’s very similar to the two prior multi-month advances since the October low. At some point, the pace will slow, as it did twice prior. 2- We’ve added a new Anchored VWAP line below, which is tied to
- [Too Quiet?](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/too-quiet/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Volatility Study 2- VIX 5-Wk 30% Declines 3- Sentiment 4- Seasonality 5- SPX Patterns 6- Trading Channels 7- SPY AVWAP 8- Breadth 9- 20 Best & Worst 10-XLY Consumer Discr 11- XLC Comm Services 12- XHB Homebuilders 13- XHB vs. XLRE Real Estate 14- Treasury Bonds 15- SGG Sugar
- [April's First Test](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/aprils-first-test/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX has some wiggle room after the recent upswing. It remains 2.4% above its most recent breakout area. Any hold above the 4,050 zone would keep the 4,300-target alive. 2- There’s been nary a drawdown since the SPX pivoted in mid-March. The pullback that started in early February happened roughly six
- [UNCH](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/unch/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: 6- Financial ETFs 7- Regional Banks 8- IHI Medical Devices 9- IYT Transportation and JETS Airlines 1-Performance All of that and we ended up with a -0.01% loss… The bid has arrived earlier each day so far
- [Just a Slow Grind?](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/just-a-slow-grind/) - Key Points: 1- I ran a twitter poll starting yesterday afternoon asking #fintwit users whether the market’s state is best described as a “melt up” or a “calm before a bad storm.” The verdict: nearly 60% think we’re in a melt-up phase. 2- While the market can extend higher, two obvious caveats present near-term risk:
- [The Beat Goes On](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-beat-goes-on/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: KRE 6- XHB Homebuilders 7- HACK Cyber Security 8- FFTY IBD 50 9- ITA Aerospace & Defense 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance Make that 18-straight days without a 1% decline… I promise I’ll stop citing this soon,
- [Another Good Close](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-good-close/) - Key Points: Two weeks into April, we have seen: 1-A plethora of good closes 2-Smaller daily moves 3-Bullish patterns working 4-Lower volume 5-Lower volatility -After gaining 140% from its low, NFLX is noticeably below its recent peak, as the XLC Comm Services tests is own February high. See the deeper dive below. Topics Covered:
- [The Bid Continues](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-bid-continues/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- Best & Worst 20 ETFs: IAI & KRE 6- SIL Silver Miners 7- XBI Biotech 8- IWC Micro-Cap 9- PALL Palladium 10- IGE Natural Resources 1-Performance April’s tepid bid continued today with the SPX notching its 17th straight day without
- [Now vs. August'22](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/now-vs-august22/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX now has gone 16 trading days without a 1% decline, which is the longest since 7/27 – 8/18/22. That period of calm ended with a bang when the SPX declined 1.3% and 2.1% on 8/19 and 8/22, respectively. 2- The SPX’s 19% gain last summer happened VERY quickly – in
- [Holiday Trading](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/holiday-trading/) - Key Points: 1- With the SPX now 10 days removed from its last 1% decline, the odds are high that another big down day comes sooner than later. 2- The cushion above the last breakout point has shrunk a bit, but the index has remained above it so far. Seeing two straight successful patterns play
- [Conflicting Action](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/conflicting-action/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- Buying the Dip Study 2- Sector Seasonality 3- SPX Patterns 4- SPX vs. 50 Day MA 5- SPY AVWAP 6- XLE Energy 7- XLV Healthcare 8- XLU Utilities vs. TLT 9- Top/Bottom 20 ETFs 10- XRT Retail 11- TLH 10-20 Year Treasury Bonds
- [Fourth Straight Decline](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/fourth-straight-decline/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- NASDAQ 6- NIB Cocoa 7- GREK Greece 8- OIH Oil Services 9- XLV Healthcare 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance It was a back-and-forth day today, thanks to the Fed Minutes, which ultimately led to the SPX’s fourth consecutive decline, albeit a tiny
- [The Latest 1% Gain](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-latest-1-gain/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- NDX 6- Leaders 7- IHF HC Providers 8- JETS 9- EIDO Indonesia 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance After going four straight days without a +/-1% move (tied with the period from late February – March as the longest streak of 2023), the
- [Week Ending 3/24/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-24-23/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLC Comm Services 5- MTUM Momentum 6- SMH Semiconductors 7- Stocks: MNST, LYV 8- EWT Taiwan 9- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 10- Gold 11- US Dollar 12- Ethereum Weekly Performance SPX The SPX withstood the 2.6% intra-day sell-off on Fed Day last Wednesday
- [Two Way Volatility](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-way-volatility/) - Topics reviewed in tonight’s video: 1- VIX +30% Week study 2- VIX Chart 3- +/-1% Moves 2023 vs. 2022 4- SPX Patterns 5- Seasonality 6- Sector Perf & Breadth 7- XLK Technology 8- MSFT – 3 Charts 9- XLE Energy 10- KWEB China Internet 11- JETS Airlines 12- Bitcoin
- [SPX 4,200](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/spx-4200/) - Key Points: 1- Momentum truly fell apart in April, 2022 when 4,200 finally gave way. And other than that late August spike (which capped off the SPX’s near 20% summer rally), the 4,200 zone has stopped every budding advance since then. 2- The SPX’s reaction to trading ABOVE its 50-Day MA remains a focus. The
- [Streak Over](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/streak-over/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLI Industrials 5- KRE Regional Banks 6- SLV Silver 7- TLH 10-20 Year Treasuries 8- IHI Medical Devices 9- SGG Sugar 10- EWS Singapore 1-Performance It wasn’t the worst decline we’ve seen, but for the first time in four days, the SPX endured
- [Getting Short-Term Stretched](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/getting-short-term-stretched/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX will be trying to extend its winning streak to five, which has not happened since the period ending November 8, 2021, when it was up eight in a row. 2- While the SPX still isn’t overbought from a daily RSI perspective, it IS overbought looking at the RSI on the
- [March and Q1'23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/march-and-q123/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX After a +3% March 2- After Back-to-Back +5% Qtrs. 3- Quarterly Win Streaks 4- Monthly Breadth 5- 20 Best: March 6- 20 Worst: March 7- Major Indices: QQQ, IWC 8– Sectors: XLK, XLF 9- Style: VTI Total Stock Mkt, IWN Small Cap Value 10– Industries: ESPO Video Games, OIH 11- Stocks:
- [Long Streaks](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/long-streaks/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- RSP Eql Weight SPX 6- GDX & SIL 7- XLP Consumer Staples 8- AMLP 9- MTUM 10- VIX 1-Performance The SPX endured a roller coaster ride today, but it didn’t crack near its lows and ended up logging its fourth
- [April](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/april/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX was lower in just TWO Aprils (2012 & 2022) over the last 17 years (an 88% win-rate) with an average gain of 2.4%. 2- On Friday, the SPX hit an upside target (4,110) and completed another bullish pattern (target 4,300). See below for details. 3– SPY AVWAP: the focus now
- [Quarter End Trends](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/quarter-end-trends/) - Key Points: 1- Notwithstanding a huge roll-over today, the SPX will avoid back-to-back monthly declines again. The last time we saw two straight monthly losses was January-February’22 2- With Tech & Comm Services up nearly 20% YTD and Con Discretionary, +13%, the pace of the big three is likely to slow down. If that happens,
- [Leveraging the Move](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/leveraging-the-move/) - Key Points: 1-While the big daily moves continue to suggest a risky trading environment, higher lows have persisted, which is the best thing that the SPX has going for it. 2- The SPX closed back above its 50-Day MA yesterday. Prior moves through the 50 Day MA over the last few months have triggered some
- [Another Chance](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/another-chance/) - Key Points: 1- While the SPX has failed to extend beyond its breakout point yet, it has done a fairly good job closing near its highs since the March 13th low. In the four weeks just before this period, it had only three good closes over 16 trading days. 2- It’s now been four days
- [Similar Feel](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/similar-feel/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- ARKK 6- SMH Semis 7- XRT Retail 8- KWEB China Internet 9- FXB British Pound 10- GREK Greece 1-Performance The biggest news today was that the SPX logged another tiny daily move. In fact, it’s now witnessed two straight moves
- [Technology & Bonds](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/technology-bonds/) - Key Points: 1- Recently, XLK Technology has performed a lot better than TLT. This suggests a mean reverting move in XLK could be due soon. See details and charts below. 2- The SPX first broke above 4,000 nearly two years ago on 4/1/21. It was a “clean” breakout and an immediate extension followed… two characteristics
- [Quiet Mean Reversion](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/quiet-mean-reversion/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- XLE Energy 6- USO Crude Oil 7- 10-Year Yield 8- SMH Semis 9- XLP Consumer Staples 10- TUR Turkey 1-Performance The SPX finished near its lows today but managed to hold onto a negligible 16 bps gain. It officially was
- [Two Straight Weekly Gains](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-straight-weekly-gains/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX just logged two straight 1.4% weekly gains. While notching another weekly advance this week would be constructive, it will be more significant to see bunches of weekly win streaks continue to emerge as the year progresses. 2- So far, the SPX is adhering to the 20-year average path of making
- [A Missing Ingredient](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-missing-ingredient/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX’s sporadic winning streaks since 2022 have made for a trying trading environment. This is completely different vs. what we saw in 2021, when the SPX had 11 weekly winning streaks. 2- We’ve used pattern work as a guide for years, and the last 15 months have been the longest span
- [Damage Control](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/damage-control/) - Key Points: 1- With the 10-Year Yield having led the Fed Funds rate at every major inflection point over the years, the Yield will continue to be instructive. See more below. 2- Yesterday was the SPX’s FIFTH 1% decline of the month, matching February’s total, with still another seven trading days left. This has created
- [Words Matter](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/words-matter/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLK Technology 5- US Dollar 6- HYG High Yield Bonds 7- KBWB Banks 8- GDX Gold Miners 9- NIB Cocoa 10- EWG Germany 1-Performance While the rate decision brought little fanfare, the late, fateful comments, by Powell and, especially, Yellen, provided fireworks. This
- [What Needs to Happen Next](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-needs-to-happen-next-2/) - Key Points: 1- The 10-Year Yield was higher two weeks after the FOMC decision three of the last four times. It was trading right around the same level (between 3.4-3.6%) on the day of the Fed decision… It’s near the same range again now. 2- The SPX’s rally from late December through early February (+11.7%)
- [A Few More Hours…](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-few-more-hours/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLY Cons Discr 5- BETZ Sports Betting 6- FDN Internet 7- KRE Regional Banks 8- SPHB High Beta 9- European ETFs 10- UNG Natural Gas 1-Performance The SPX’s comeback continued Tuesday, as the index closed above 4k for the first-time since 2/23… it
- [Break in the Action](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/break-in-the-action/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLE Energy 5- XLC Comm Services 6- SIL Silver 7- ARKK 8- QQQ, XLK & SMH 9- XRT Retail 10- TUR Turkey 1-Performance The SPX bounced back on Monday, withstanding the late morning sell off and finishing near the highs. It was the
- [Two Markets](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-markets/) - Key Points: 1- 7/11 Sector ETFs advanced last week, but 60% of the SPX’s components declined. Even more telling… The RSP Equal Weight SPX ETF dropped -1.7% last week vs. the SPX’s +1.4% gain. 2- This forced the 14-Day RSP/SPX’s relative ratio to drop to 11; over the last 20 years, it only was lower
- [Week Ending 3/17/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-17-23/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX: +/-1% WEEKS 2- Breadth 3- NDX vs. IWM R2k 4- XLF Financials 5- IWF Large Cap Growth; VIX +30% Weeks 6- GDX and SIL 7- KRE Regional Banks 8- Stocks: CLX, OXY 9- EWG Germany 10- 10-Year Yield 11- Crude Oil 12- US Dollar 13- Bitcoin – two breakout targets Weekly
- [Boomerang](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/boomerang/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX ripped through the neckline of its bearish pattern yesterday, but we’re going to keep this pattern on the grid for another day. A quick roll-over from here would re-trigger it. 2- The likelihood of more outsized gains and losses remains high. The longest the SPX has gone in between +/-1%
- [Patterns, Breadth & Seasonality](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/patterns-breadth-seasonality/) - Key Points: 1- The RSP/SPX relative ratio’s 14-Day RSI indicator plummeted to 14 yesterday, which is the lowest reading since the March’20 Covid-induced debacle. 2- For this to normalize, the best case would be seeing the Growth-related behemoths breakout from their respective attractive patterns and ALSO have the most depressed stocks rip higher from deeply
- [A Lot Going on](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-lot-going-on/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLU Utilities 5- XLI Industrials 6- Large Cap Growth Stocks 7- OIH Oil Services 8- EUFN European Financials 9- JETS Airlines 10- LIT Lithium 1-Performance For the second straight session, the SPX did better in the latter half of the day. Yesterday’s buying
- [1% Moves Just Don’t Stop](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-moves-just-dont-stop/) - Key Points: 1- If we can trust one trend since the start of 2022, it’s that sizable gains AND losses continue to be rampant. And sizable gains and losses = two-way volatility. 2- The SPX finished just under the 3,935-mark yesterday, which means the bearish pattern remains in play. The downside target is at 3,640.
- [Snapback](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/snapback/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLC Comm Services 5- XLK Technology 6- AAPL 7- ZROZ Zero Coupons 8- EUFN European Financials 9- EWQ France 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance It wasn’t the traditional trend day on Tuesday, with the SPX selling off 1.6% from 11:40 to 3:15, but the +1.3%
- [The Reaction Now... and Later](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-reaction-now-and-later/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX comes into today’s session with the lowest RSI reading (34) on a CPI release date since 6/10/22. Back then, we’ll recall, the index was in the midst of logging four straight -1% declines. But it bottomed soon thereafter. 2- For any rally attempt to be meaningful, the SPX would need
- [A Pause… for Some](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/a-pause-for-some/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- XLE Energy 6- GLD Gold 7- SHY 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF 8- New 20-Day Highs & Lows 9- FXI China 10- Bitcoin 1-Performance The across-the-board selling that defined last Thursday and Friday took a breather today with the SPX
- [What It all Means for the SPX](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/what-it-all-means-for-the-spx/) - Key Points: 1- The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index hit extreme FEAR on Friday, just five weeks after it hit Extreme GREED in early February. This is the quickest unraveling of sentiment since November-December’21. 2- The SPX is coming off its first -4% weekly decline since the week of 9/23. The frequency of annual
- [Week Ending 3/10/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-10-23/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX: -4% Weeks Last 30 Years 2- Breadth 3- IWM Small Caps 4- XLF Financials 5- VIX +30% Weeks 6- SMH Semis 7- Stocks: GE 8- Stocks: BRO 9- ECH Chile 10- ZROZ Zero Coupon Bonds 11- GLD Gold 12- FXA Australian Dollar 13- Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX Thanks to the
- [Two 1.5% Losses in the Same Week](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/two-1-5-losses-in-the-same-week/) - Key Points: 1- Yesterday’s big down session was the index’s second loss greater than 1.5% of the week so far. Overall, this occurred seven different times in 2022, and now once in 2023. 2- Two 1.5% losses happened in different stages on the SPX’s chart last year: At the very beginning of larger selloffs (2/10-11),
- [Head on a Swivel](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/head-on-a-swivel/) - Key Points: 1- Over the last 18 trading days, the SPX has logged six +/-1% moves and twelve moves of 53bps or less. While it’s been mostly quiet, another big move always is around the corner… 2- AAPL has been outperforming the SPX in 2023 and now faces a big test from both an absolute
- [Hold](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/hold/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLP Staples 5- XLRE Real Estate 6- SMH Semis 7- KIE Insurance 8- FFTY IBD 50 9- PJP Drugs 10- CORN 1-Performance The SPX’s late afternoon bounce prevented its initial small loss from turning into a more damaging one. The hold also
- [1% Declines, Trading Ranges and Breadth](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/1-declines-trading-ranges-and-breadth/) - Key Points: 1- Tuesday’s 1.5% decline ended a modest streak of six straight days of no 1% down moves. This wasn’t close to the longest we’ve seen in recent years: From 10/19/19 through 1/20/20, the SPX went 74 days without a 1% loss. 2- The SPX has been confined to four separate multi-week trading ranges since
- [Downtrend Day](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/downtrend-day/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLF Financials 5- KRE Regional Banks 6- SIL Silver Miners 7- UUP US Dollar 8- MSOS Cannabis 9- SGG Sugar 10- EWD Sweden 1-Performance Chatter of higher rates for longer was all the market needed to hear to give up the bid, which
- [New Patterns to Watch](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/new-patterns-to-watch/) - Key Points: 1- We look at two potential pattern scenarios below for the SPX – one bearish and one bullish. 2- The SPX hasn’t seen a 1% decline in six days now. That’s the second longest stretch of 2023 (there were two 7-day streaks in January) … so another one could be due again soon. 3- Yesterday’s
- [Mixed Action](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/mixed-action/) - Topics Reviewed: 1- SPX Performance 2- Patterns 3- Breadth 4- Sector ETFs: XLB Materials 5- IWM R2k 6- XBI Biotech 7- XLV Healthcare 8- GDX Gold Miners 9- EIRL Ireland 10- GREK Greece 1-Performance It wasn’t thrilling by any means, but the SPX notched its third straight gain on Monday. It last logged three straight
- [After Two Strong Days](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/after-two-strong-days/) - Key Points: 1- The SPX logged its fifth 1% weekly advance of 2023 last week. When the index logged more than twenty +1% weeks in a calendar year since 2007, it notched annual gains every time (2021, 2020, 2010, 2009 and 2007). 2- While the number of new highs in S&P 500 stocks is still far below
- [Week Ending 3/3/23](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/week-ending-3-3-23/) - Topics Covered: 1- SPX: 1% Weeks Per Year 2- Breadth 3- NDX 4- XLB Materials 5- RSP Equal Weight S&P500 6- XME Metals 7- Stocks: LKQ 8- Stocks: ELV 9- EWJ Japan 10- 10-Year Yield 11- UNG Natural Gas 12- US Dollar 13- Bitcoin Weekly Performance SPX The SPX ended its three-week losing streak
- [The Reversal](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/the-reversal/) - Key Points: 9 reasons yesterday’s reversal could trigger a bigger up move. Select Charts from Last Night’s Video: 1-10-Year Yield 2-XLU Utilities 3-XLB Materials 4-XLP Consumer Staples 5-IGV Software 6-WDAY Workday 7-KRE Regional Banks 8-HOPE Hope Bancorp 9-Bitcoin Yesterday’s move possessed several characteristics that could entice additional buy interest. We review each of these
- [Key Levels](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/key-levels/) - In tonight’s video, we’re reviewing: 1- US Dollar Charts 2- US Dollar Study 3- SPX Patterns 4- 10 Year Yield Charts 5- Sector Perf & Breadth 6- XLU Utilities 7- XLB Materials 8- XLP Consumer Staples 9- IGV Software 10- Software Stock Focus 11- KRE Regional Banks 12- Regional Bank Stock Focus 13- Bitcoin
- [Teetering on Key Support](https://cappthesis.com/newsletter/teetering-on-key-support/) - Key Points: 1- An immediate rollover from here would complete the SPX’s latest potential bearish formation. See below. 2- With the SPX’s 14-Day RSI still near 40, it’s not close to the extreme lows that we saw near key trading bottoms last year. A strong bounce soon – before the RSI drops much further –

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